Institute for the Study of War
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and propagandists of the aggressor country are spreading disinformation about the alleged "imminent collapse" of the front line in Ukraine. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that this is being done to force Ukraine and the West to agree to the Kremlin's terms.
The Russian economy shows signs of decline: Russia prioritizes a "wartime economy. " The VAT increase is likely to lead to further inflation, while reducing cash flow in the Russian economy and further stagnation.
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that Russian forces will be able to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by August 2027 at current rates of advance. From July 31 to November 26, the occupiers advanced 0.12 km per day.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia's consistent pace of advance on the front does not mean the inevitable capture of Donetsk Oblast. The Kremlin is spreading the narrative of inevitable victory to coerce Ukraine and the West into meeting its demands.
Russian officials and media reject the US peace plan, demanding full compliance with Russia's demands and refusing territorial compromises. The Kremlin is actively shaping public opinion not to agree to anything less than a complete victory in Ukraine.
The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine is expanding cooperation with international partners to document Russian war crimes and environmental damage. Deputy Prosecutor General Andriy Leshchenko met with a delegation from the French Ministry of Justice to discuss this issue.
The Kremlin stated that discussions about a possible prisoner exchange with Ukraine are ongoing, declining to provide details. Earlier, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov reported on agreements regarding the release of 1,200 Ukrainians.
The occupiers are 4 kilometers from Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia region, trying to isolate it from the northeast. They are advancing towards the T-0401 Pokrovske-Huliaipole highway, using foggy weather for attacks.
The US must be able to seize the initiative in the fight against any adversary to deter and win future wars. Russia is moving towards prolonging and expanding the current war, exploiting the weakness of Western countries.
The Russian authorities continue to encourage war crimes against Ukrainian servicemen and civilians. The leader of the far-right Russian paramilitary unit of the sabotage and reconnaissance group "Rusich", Oleksiy Milchakov, distributed photos of the execution of three Ukrainian prisoners of war and offers money for photos with "clearly recorded executed prisoners in the background."
The occupiers are using foggy weather for attacks along the entire front, particularly in the Pokrovsk, Velykomykhailivka, and Huliaipole directions. Ukraine bases its defense on drones, which cannot operate effectively in poor weather conditions.
The Kremlin consistently reaffirms its initial war demands, which include Ukraine's "neutrality," the removal of legitimate Ukrainian authorities, and the establishment of a pro-Russian government. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the war in Ukraine is intended to "reliably guarantee Russia's security" and "thwart NATO and EU plans" to turn Ukraine into a "puppet state."
The advance of Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction remains slow, likely due to exhausting offensive operations across the theater of war. ISW predicts that the Russians will capture Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but with heavy losses and over a long period.
The Kremlin has begun a forced partial mobilization of reservists, likely for use in Ukraine. At least 19 federal subjects are already preparing reservists, allegedly to protect critical infrastructure in Russia.
ISW assesses that providing Ukraine with American Tomahawk missiles would be a response to Russia's use of cruise and ballistic missiles. This would allow Ukraine to strike key Russian military targets located deep in the rear.
The Kremlin is reviving Soviet-era narratives about Russia's "sacrifice" to justify future aggression against Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as long-term societal mobilization. This is part of the Kremlin's concerted effort to justify claims that Russia is at war with all of NATO, not just Ukraine.
According to analysts, the Kremlin is intensifying cognitive warfare to force the US to make decisions favorable to Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, accusing them of inability to negotiate. Russian officials accuse Donald Trump of obstructing peace talks by refusing Russia's maximalist demands.
The test of the Russian cruise missile took place on October 21. Russia claims that the Burevestnik allegedly covered about 14,000 km and was in the air for approximately 15 hours.
Russia is trying to use Kirill Dmitriev's visit to the United States to spread pro-Kremlin narratives in the American information space. This is happening against the backdrop of US sanctions against Russian oil companies and debates about providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.
The Kremlin's threats of military retaliation for the possible provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by the US are part of long-standing rhetorical efforts to convince the West of Russia's inevitable victory. ISW analysts note that Russia ignores the reality of minimal progress and high losses, using threats to conceal its own military weaknesses.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces are successfully eliminating Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups attempting to penetrate Pokrovsk. The Pokrovsk direction remains one of the hottest sectors of the front, where almost 40 combat engagements took place in the last day.
The Kremlin is deliberately cluttering the information space with false statements and information operations to conceal attacks against Europe. Russian special services are participating in cognitive warfare to spread confusion among Western countries and their populations.
The transfer of Tomahawk missiles by the US will not lead to a significant escalation of the war, but will be a symmetrical response to Russia's use of long-range cruise missiles. This will allow Ukraine to inflict damage on key Russian military facilities.
The Kremlin applies the same narratives to the Baltic states as it did to justify invasions of former Soviet republics. This creates conditions for possible Russian aggression against NATO in the future.
Russia is experiencing an armored crisis due to the war in Ukraine, but is actively increasing the production of new T-90 tanks. Moscow plans to produce more than 1,100 new and modernized tanks by 2029, circumventing sanctions to purchase equipment.
Any ceasefire in Ukraine will allow Russia to redeploy troops to the eastern border with NATO, creating a threat. ISW analysts believe that Russia is already preparing for a possible war against NATO.
Russia's efforts to increase military recruitment through high financial incentives are not yielding results. The number of people signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense is not increasing, even in regions with the highest financial incentives.
Russia could pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than 2036, as predicted by Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies. Russia's constant sabotage and intelligence activities indicate the creation of informational and psychological conditions for a future war against NATO.
Russian forces likely accumulated ballistic and cruise missiles throughout September 2025 to conduct several separate large-scale drone and missile strikes across Ukraine. Ukrainian Patriot air defense systems remain the only systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.
Russia is intensifying the destabilization of Europe, as evidenced by unidentified drones in the airspace and provocations by warships. Belgium is investigating drone incursions, which may be part of Russia's hybrid campaign.