Institute for the Study of War
ISW reports a critical reduction in Russia's financial reserves due to the war against Ukraine. Expenditures have exceeded $200 billion, and corruption in the country has increased by 30%.
Putin and Lukashenko have signed a new Union Treaty on security guarantees that allows the deployment of oreshnik ballistic missiles in Belarus. The treaty also provides for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the event of aggression.
ISW: an increase in Russian military spending to 41% of the budget in 2025 does not guarantee an increase in military capabilities. A significant part of the funds will be spent on social payments, which may weaken the country's economy.
In the first 10 months of 2024, 60,000 desertion cases were opened, which is twice as many as in the previous two years. The main reasons are the lack of rotation and exhaustion of military personnel on the front line.
The President of Ukraine visited the location of the 25th Brigade in Pokrovsk and awarded the city's defenders. Ukrainian troops stopped 32 hostile attacks in the Pokrovsk sector over the last day.
The National Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation denied information about the enemy's entrenchment in Kupyansk. The Russian landing force was destroyed and the situation is under control of the Defense Forces.
Russian authorities are negotiating a merger between Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Lukoil. The goal is to strengthen its position in the energy market and obtain more favorable deals with China and India.
ISW reports that putin is creating the appearance of improving relations with Trump, but has no plans to make concessions. the kremlin continues to pursue its maximalist goals in Ukraine and on the international stage.
The Institute for the Study of War reports on attempts by Russian agents to discredit Maia Sandu's victory in the elections in Moldova. Pro-Russian politicians and oligarchs are spreading statements about the illegitimacy of the voting results.
Russian troops seized about 14 square kilometers per day in September 2024, compared to 1265 square kilometers in March 2024. Russia's recent successes are tactically significant, but most of the front remains stagnant.
Representatives of the PRC have been participating in military exercises in Belarus over the past 3-4 months. China is interested in the experience of using drones, demining, and storming buildings in the context of the war in Ukraine.
Russia is able to continue the war thanks to oil revenues and the failure of Western sanctions. Military spending has created an economic paradox: full employment and rising wages with a labor shortage.
Russia is conducting information operations to justify the use of North Korean troops against Ukraine. According to intelligence, 12,000 DPRK troops are already in Russia.
At the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia will try to use the opportunity to create mechanisms to strengthen its military operations in Ukraine.
Russian forces have intensified systematic war crimes, including executions of Ukrainian prisoners and the use of chemical weapons. ISW reports an increase in such cases in recent years.
The Kremlin can use the partnership agreement with North Korea to offset the requirements for the formation of troops. This will allow Putin to postpone the decision to mobilize in Russia.
Most DPRK officers do not understand Russian, according to the Center for Countering Disinformation. The information about the training of 100,000 DPRK troops for Ukraine is considered fiction by the Center for Countering Disinformation.
The EU allocates $440 million to support Ukraine's defense industry. This marks a change in the EU's approach to war and highlights the shortcomings of its own defense sector in producing weapons.
According to the ISW, “several thousand” North Korean infantrymen are being trained in Russia. They may be deployed to the front in Ukraine or in the border regions of Russia by the end of 2024.
Prime Minister Mishustin visited Iran to expand economic cooperation. They discussed investment, trade and signing a strategic agreement at the upcoming BRICS summit.
The Foreign Ministers of Ukraine and Hungary paid special attention to Ukraine's peace initiatives. Sibiga thanked Szijjarto for participating in the First Peace Summit and expressed hope for Hungary's continued support of Ukrainian initiatives.
Russian troops have reached the outskirts of Vuhledar, but its capture is unlikely to give them much advantage for further operations in western Donetsk region. Vuhledar is not an important logistical hub.
Maxar satellite imagery revealed a large-scale fire at a Russian ammunition depot after the Ukrainian attack. An ISW analyst confirmed that not only the surrounding area but also the weapons bunkers themselves were on fire.
The President of Ukraine discussed the situation in Donetsk region and the operation in Kursk region with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Zelenskyy also heard a report on Ukraine's missile program.
The Ukrainian operation in the kursk region showed the effectiveness of maneuver warfare against russian superiority. The Ukrainian armed forces advanced 800 square kilometers in 6 days, while the russian federation occupied 1,175 square kilometers in 7 months.
SBU warns of Russian attempts to accuse Ukrainian military of war crimes in Kursk region. The SBU spokesperson said that crimes against civilians may be staged to discredit Ukraine.
The Russian Defense Ministry claims 14 "downed" drones over Kursk and two other regions at night, authorities in Belgorod region say that almost the entire population has left Krasnoyaruz district, and a new ISW report indicates further advance of Ukrainian forces in Kursk region.
Russia is preparing to send employees of private security organizations to defend the Kursk region. This primarily concerns security guards from companies of state corporations, including Rosneft.
The Russian command is redeploying experienced units to the Kursk region, considering its defense a higher priority than the offensive in the Kharkiv region. This may indicate a serious assessment of the situation in the region.
the Kremlin is trying to find a balance between presenting the attack in Kursk region as a Ukrainian escalation and avoiding panic inside the country. ISW notes the risk of discrediting the authorities due to contradictory statements.