Why does Lukashenka need a Russian "Nutcracker" in Belarus? The ISW provided an explanation

The Russian authorities continue their strategic efforts to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military presence in Belarus as a union state. This is stated in the world of the Institute for the study of war (ISW), writes UNN.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a new Union Treaty on security guarantees at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union state in Minsk. Lukashenko has publicly called on Putin to deploy oreshnik ballistic missiles in Belarus. The president of Belarus has put forward a condition that the Belarusian military and political leadership will determine the targets of the Oreshnik if the missile is ever launched from the territory of Belarus. At this request, Putin said that by mid-2025, Russia can deploy Oreshnik complexes in Belarus on the basis of a new Union Treaty on security guarantees and as Russia increases production of oreshnik ballistic missiles. Also, as the Russian President noted, the new security treaty allows Russia and Belarus to use "all available forces and means" within the framework of Russia and Belarus ' mutual defense obligations.

According to the treaty, countries must ensure the security of the borders of the Union state. The new document also provides for the possibility of using Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus in the event of aggression against Belarus. 

"The agreement was signed after the publication of the updated nuclear doctrine of Russia on November 19, which officially put Belarus under the nuclear umbrella of Russia and is consistent with the current contractual obligations of Russia with Belarus. The deployment of oreshnik ballistic missiles in Belarus will further increase Russia's military footprint in Belarus and advance the Kremlin's long — standing strategic efforts to erode Belarus ' sovereignty and de facto annexation of Belarus through the Union state, "the report says.

It is worth noting that in addition to this agreement, Russia and Belarus signed 10 more union documents. Among them are the concept of security of the Union state, a decree on uniform rules in the field of consumer protection, a decree on joint measures to combat smuggling, an agreement on the formation of a single electric power network of the market, a decree on the abolition of roaming of mobile devices, a decree on a festive event dedicated to the 80th anniversary of victory in World War II.

However, the president of Belarus is probably still trying to preserve the sovereignty of his state against Moscow. Lukashenka is in favor of keeping Russian weapons deployed on the territory of Belarus under control. However, Lukashenka's attempt has historically failed. 

For a long time, Lukashenka has tried to compete with the Kremlin to determine whether Belarus can establish control over Russian military assets, such as advanced S-400 air defense systems. According to state secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander volfovich, only Lukashenka can issue an order on the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in their country. The president of Belarus himself noted that the Russian military will continue to use the Oreshnik system in Belarus. In other words, this means maintaining  Moscow's control over any oreshnik ballistic missiles deployed in Belarus.

The ISW notes that the deployment of Oreshnik in Belarus does not increase the risk of ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine and NATO countries, despite the way the Kremlin talks about nuclear weapons.

Russian troops regularly fire at Ukraine with Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles and X-101 cruise missiles, which can carry nuclear weapons.

Recall 

On the border with Russia , 100-150 attacks are recorded daily, most of them in Sumy region. The situation in the Belarusian direction is under control, and there is no movement of troops.