Institute for the Study of War
Russia is carrying out an average of 32 attacks per day near Dobropillia but is not advancing. Ukrainian drones are destroying assault groups and complicating logistics.
Major General Anton Hrunis, commander of the Russian 4th Brigade, was killed in Ukraine. He reported to Putin about the alleged capture of Kostiantynivka.
ISW analysts believe that the Russian drone near Yahodyn was aimed at a train carrying European officials. The drone damaged a passenger train and infrastructure.
According to Russian sources, Ukraine’s Armed Forces counterattacked near Lyman and may have pushed Russian forces back to the Zherebets River. ISW allows for greater gains.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Putin exaggerated the successes of Russian troops in his conversation with Trump. The goal is to increase pressure from Washington on Ukraine.
Analysts assess that exaggerated reports by the Russian military are harming Russia’s operations. At the same time, the Kremlin uses fabricated gains in its demands toward Ukraine.
Putin proposed bolstering Russia’s air defense with volunteers in category D. ISW points to a shortage of systems, personnel, and coordination.
The 17th Army Corps refuted Russian claims about the occupation of Novodanylivka. On September 4, the Defense Forces stopped three attacks in 24 hours on the Orikhiv direction.
The Russian authorities have compiled a secret list of 167 companies and properties for possible state control allegedly due to inadequate protection against drones. ISW warns of broader nationalization of private property.
Of the 73 conscripts who sought assistance after attempting to leave Russia, 23 were refused. The restriction sometimes appears directly at the border.
Of the 32 "Rassvet" satellites, only 12 reached a stable operational altitude. At the same time, the developers announced that service testing had started ahead of schedule.
Russia will agree to peace only on terms that align with Putin's war aims. ISW considers the statement confirmation of the intention to continue the war.
The Kremlin expects to have up to 100 veterans of the war against Ukraine elected to the State Duma of the Russian Federation. According to ISW analysts, the aim is to strengthen the militarization of the authorities.
Russian dictator Putin is trying to conceal the economic damage caused by the war and Ukrainian strikes. Prices, fuel shortages, and labor shortages are increasing in Russia.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers continue to exaggerate Russian advances in the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole directions. According to ISW analysts, the Kremlin is using artificial intelligence to portray Russia’s "successes" at the front.
Russia rejects all proposals for a ceasefire, insisting on the terms of Ukraine's complete capitulation. ISW notes that the Kremlin uses pro-war rhetoric to consolidate society ahead of the State Duma elections.
Ukraine has stopped reporting the number of Russian missiles due to security measures. Kyiv needs more interceptors from allies, especially Patriots.
Russia plans to launch a large-scale strike campaign against Kyiv’s energy infrastructure over the coming weeks. ISW analysts predict that the Russian Federation will use its strategic reserve of ballistic missiles to inflict maximum damage by August 24.
The US has returned intelligence sharing with Ukraine to its previous high level, increasing the effectiveness of strikes against Russia. Senators confirmed the improvement in cooperation, while the White House emphasized its desire to end the war.
Putin stated that he analyzes information from various sources, including bloggers. Milbloggers continue to criticize Russian commanders for false reports about the situation at the front.
The Russian Navy has formed the first unmanned systems regiment as part of the Northern Fleet. It is planned to create additional regiments and include a similar structure in the Pacific Fleet in 2027.
The State Duma of the Russian Federation adopted a law allowing citizens with criminal records to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. ISW analysts believe that the Kremlin is preparing to announce mobilization and possible civil unrest.
Russia is conducting a "Zero Phase" campaign to create conditions for provocations against NATO countries. ISW analysts point to the possible use of captured Ukrainian drones for false flag operations.
In July 2026, Russia used up to two-thirds of the annual production of Zircon missiles and launched 107 ballistic missiles. At the same time, the number of drones launched decreased from 5,749 in June to 2,955 in July.
On the morning of July 17, the Russian Federation attacked the port infrastructure of Mykolaiv with Shahed-238 drones. Three civilian vessels were damaged, and two Ukrainian citizens were killed.
The war in Ukraine is changing military doctrines, where drones are becoming the primary means of attack. Ukraine is actively using mid-strikes and deep strikes to target enemy logistics and strategic facilities.
The dictator noted the slow progress of Russian troops and the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes. Putin appears to have begun acknowledging some of the setbacks facing the Russian military.
Experts predict massive attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure this winter to extract concessions. The Russian budget deficit has doubled to 81 billion dollars.
ISW reports a shift in Russia's priorities from Sloviansk to Kostiantynivka. The occupiers failed to capture the city by May 2026 despite significant losses.
Due to strikes on infrastructure and bridges, a shortage of fuel and basic products has emerged in Crimea. Occupation authorities cite "natural lulls in harvest cycles" as the reason.