Institute for the Study of War
Russia will agree to peace only on terms that align with Putin's war aims. ISW considers the statement confirmation of the intention to continue the war.
The Kremlin expects to have up to 100 veterans of the war against Ukraine elected to the State Duma of the Russian Federation. According to ISW analysts, the aim is to strengthen the militarization of the authorities.
Russian dictator Putin is trying to conceal the economic damage caused by the war and Ukrainian strikes. Prices, fuel shortages, and labor shortages are increasing in Russia.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers continue to exaggerate Russian advances in the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole directions. According to ISW analysts, the Kremlin is using artificial intelligence to portray Russia’s "successes" at the front.
Russia rejects all proposals for a ceasefire, insisting on the terms of Ukraine's complete capitulation. ISW notes that the Kremlin uses pro-war rhetoric to consolidate society ahead of the State Duma elections.
Ukraine has stopped reporting the number of Russian missiles due to security measures. Kyiv needs more interceptors from allies, especially Patriots.
Russia plans to launch a large-scale strike campaign against Kyiv’s energy infrastructure over the coming weeks. ISW analysts predict that the Russian Federation will use its strategic reserve of ballistic missiles to inflict maximum damage by August 24.
The US has returned intelligence sharing with Ukraine to its previous high level, increasing the effectiveness of strikes against Russia. Senators confirmed the improvement in cooperation, while the White House emphasized its desire to end the war.
Putin stated that he analyzes information from various sources, including bloggers. Milbloggers continue to criticize Russian commanders for false reports about the situation at the front.
The Russian Navy has formed the first unmanned systems regiment as part of the Northern Fleet. It is planned to create additional regiments and include a similar structure in the Pacific Fleet in 2027.
The State Duma of the Russian Federation adopted a law allowing citizens with criminal records to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. ISW analysts believe that the Kremlin is preparing to announce mobilization and possible civil unrest.
Russia is conducting a "Zero Phase" campaign to create conditions for provocations against NATO countries. ISW analysts point to the possible use of captured Ukrainian drones for false flag operations.
In July 2026, Russia used up to two-thirds of the annual production of Zircon missiles and launched 107 ballistic missiles. At the same time, the number of drones launched decreased from 5,749 in June to 2,955 in July.
On the morning of July 17, the Russian Federation attacked the port infrastructure of Mykolaiv with Shahed-238 drones. Three civilian vessels were damaged, and two Ukrainian citizens were killed.
The war in Ukraine is changing military doctrines, where drones are becoming the primary means of attack. Ukraine is actively using mid-strikes and deep strikes to target enemy logistics and strategic facilities.
The dictator noted the slow progress of Russian troops and the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes. Putin appears to have begun acknowledging some of the setbacks facing the Russian military.
Experts predict massive attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure this winter to extract concessions. The Russian budget deficit has doubled to 81 billion dollars.
ISW reports a shift in Russia's priorities from Sloviansk to Kostiantynivka. The occupiers failed to capture the city by May 2026 despite significant losses.
Due to strikes on infrastructure and bridges, a shortage of fuel and basic products has emerged in Crimea. Occupation authorities cite "natural lulls in harvest cycles" as the reason.
According to ISW, in May, the occupiers seized 40 sq. km but lost control over 280 sq. km. Russia's combat capabilities are declining amid its refusal to negotiate.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin rejected negotiations with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and announced plans to continue the war. ISW emphasizes that Russia's successes at the front do not correspond to reality.
In recent months, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been systematically striking Russian oil refineries and ports on the territory of the Russian Federation at distances of up to 1,700 km. Drone strikes are causing significant damage to the aggressor's economy.
At the SPIEF, Russian officials claimed economic stability despite fuel shortages and debts. ISW and intelligence point to a crisis and a Russian budget deficit of $80 billion.
AFU attacked Kronshtadt base and oil terminal in Saint Petersburg with drones: satellite imagery shows consequences of the strike.
The Russian Federation is exploiting the shortage of Patriot missiles to escalate attacks on the capital. Putin is attempting to divert attention from strikes on the rear and failures at the front.
AFU strikes on lines of communication disrupt enemy logistics from the Luhansk region to Crimea. Drones are reaching the Russian border, blocking supplies and the movement of reserves.
In Galați, Romania, a Russian drone hit a house and injured two people. ISW claims a deliberate violation of the Alliance's airspace by Russia.
ISW warns of possible Russian attacks on the Kyiv-Chop highway from the territory of Belarus. Border guards currently do not record any enemy strike groups at the border.
During the May 24 attack, Russia likely launched two Oreshnik missiles. One of them may have malfunctioned and fallen near Avdiivka or Yasynuvata.
Russia attacked Kyiv with 90 missiles and 600 drones, using the Oreshnik. ISW explains this as Putin's attempt to erase the humiliation after the May 9 parade.