The dictator noted the slow progress of Russian troops and the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes. Putin appears to have begun acknowledging some of the setbacks facing the Russian military.
Experts predict massive attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure this winter to extract concessions. The Russian budget deficit has doubled to 81 billion dollars.
ISW reports a shift in Russia's priorities from Sloviansk to Kostiantynivka. The occupiers failed to capture the city by May 2026 despite significant losses.
Due to strikes on infrastructure and bridges, a shortage of fuel and basic products has emerged in Crimea. Occupation authorities cite "natural lulls in harvest cycles" as the reason.
According to ISW, in May, the occupiers seized 40 sq. km but lost control over 280 sq. km. Russia's combat capabilities are declining amid its refusal to negotiate.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin rejected negotiations with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and announced plans to continue the war. ISW emphasizes that Russia's successes at the front do not correspond to reality.
In recent months, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been systematically striking Russian oil refineries and ports on the territory of the Russian Federation at distances of up to 1,700 km. Drone strikes are causing significant damage to the aggressor's economy.
At the SPIEF, Russian officials claimed economic stability despite fuel shortages and debts. ISW and intelligence point to a crisis and a Russian budget deficit of $80 billion.
AFU attacked Kronshtadt base and oil terminal in Saint Petersburg with drones: satellite imagery shows consequences of the strike.
The Russian Federation is exploiting the shortage of Patriot missiles to escalate attacks on the capital. Putin is attempting to divert attention from strikes on the rear and failures at the front.
AFU strikes on lines of communication disrupt enemy logistics from the Luhansk region to Crimea. Drones are reaching the Russian border, blocking supplies and the movement of reserves.
In Galați, Romania, a Russian drone hit a house and injured two people. ISW claims a deliberate violation of the Alliance's airspace by Russia.
ISW warns of possible Russian attacks on the Kyiv-Chop highway from the territory of Belarus. Border guards currently do not record any enemy strike groups at the border.
During the May 24 attack, Russia likely launched two Oreshnik missiles. One of them may have malfunctioned and fallen near Avdiivka or Yasynuvata.
Russia attacked Kyiv with 90 missiles and 600 drones, using the Oreshnik. ISW explains this as Putin's attempt to erase the humiliation after the May 9 parade.
Over the past day, 216 combat engagements took place, and the enemy used nearly 10,000 drones. The AFU eliminated 950 occupiers and destroyed 68 artillery systems.
Putin still plans to seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine by the end of 2026. At the same time, the Russian elite admits that the war in Ukraine is "not going very well."
The Russian Federation and Belarus have completed nuclear exercises using Iskander-M systems. ISW notes the strengthening of the Kremlin's actual control over Minsk.
The Russian Federation has delivered nuclear munitions to field storage points in Belarus. The military is practicing the equipping of Iskander-M missile systems.
Russia is conducting unannounced nuclear exercises to mask military failures. Analysts assess this as an attempt to influence NATO's decisions regarding support for Ukraine.
ISW reports the negative impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure. Coupled with the budget deficit and Western sanctions, the Russian economy is on the brink of collapse.
Pistorius called Putin's statements on peace a possible deception to cover up the weakness of the Russian army. ISW notes that the Kremlin has no intention of ending the war against Ukraine.
According to analysts' assessments, the Kremlin seeks to create a false sense of political urgency for its negotiating partners. In this way, Russia is trying to force Ukraine to cede the unoccupied part of the Donbas, which Russian forces have been unable to take on the battlefield.
AFU attacks on the port and refinery in Tuapse caused damages exceeding 300 million dollars. Strikes in April and May significantly damaged Russian infrastructure.
In April 2026, the Russian Federation lost 116 sq. km of territory for the first time since August 2024. The pace of Russia's advancement on the battlefield has been steadily declining since November 2025.
Attacks on Russian infrastructure have reduced oil refining volumes to 4. 69 million barrels per day. This is the industry's lowest figure in the last 16 years.
State VCIOM poll shows drop in Putin's approval from 66,7% to 65,6%. Kremlin advises media to use higher data from the "Public Opinion Forum" or not publish reports at all.
ISW reports four unsuccessful Russian attacks in various directions of the front. Analysts consider these actions to be reconnaissance-in-force, which will not strengthen the enemy's overall offensive.
Russian military complains about air defense overload and lack of anti-aircraft missiles to protect ports. ISW reports on the creation of mobile fire groups in Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is restricting the supply of UAVs to regular units through a new distribution system. ISW experts predict an increase in corruption and a shortage of drones in the aggressor country.
