The Russian dictator confirmed his intention to seize territories that he considers "historical lands of Russia. " This primarily refers to the south and east of Ukraine.
American negotiators are pushing for Ukraine to cede control of Donetsk and Luhansk regions for peace talks with Russia. Kyiv refuses to withdraw troops from Donbas, despite US demands.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov effectively rejected seven points of the 28-point peace plan proposed by the United States. This includes points regarding territorial exchange based on the line of contact and providing reliable security guarantees for Ukraine.
Russian dictator Putin is trying to portray the Russian economy as capable of sustaining the war in Ukraine, likely to support cognitive warfare. He claimed GDP growth and low inflation, ignoring the connection between economic problems and the war.
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that the Kremlin may use claims of President Zelenskyy's alleged illegitimacy to violate future peace agreements. At the same time, Russian special services are planning destabilization in Ukraine through "peaceful protests."
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia is intensifying covert and overt attacks on Europe, which is part of preparations for a possible war with NATO. Five unidentified drones flew over a French nuclear submarine base on December 4.
The Kremlin is offering a non-aggression pact on Odesa and Mykolaiv as a "concession" in negotiations, even though Russian forces are unable to capture them. Statements by the deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma's defense committee indicate attempts to influence peace talks.
The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Putin is trying to conceal his initial war goals, limiting them to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Kremlin also rejected a US peace proposal without disclosing details.
Russian "war correspondents" are spreading narratives about "preparing an offensive on Chernihiv," but the aggressor has no real forces for this. This is part of Russia's pressure tactics on Ukraine and an attempt to prolong US efforts.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that the Kremlin is setting conditions to refrain from publicly discussing the results of the US-Russian meeting on December 2. This is likely due to a desire to conceal Russia's rejection of the US and Ukraine peace proposal.
The Kremlin is spreading a narrative about Ukraine's imminent collapse to induce the West to capitulate, despite the vulnerabilities of the Russian war effort. Peskov's statements are part of a cognitive effort aimed at creating a false sense of urgency about Russia's victory.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated Ivanivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region, driving out Russian occupiers. Soldiers of the 37th Separate Marine Brigade destroyed 53 and captured 19 Russian servicemen.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and propagandists of the aggressor country are spreading disinformation about the alleged "imminent collapse" of the front line in Ukraine. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that this is being done to force Ukraine and the West to agree to the Kremlin's terms.
The Russian economy shows signs of decline: Russia prioritizes a "wartime economy. " The VAT increase is likely to lead to further inflation, while reducing cash flow in the Russian economy and further stagnation.
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that Russian forces will be able to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by August 2027 at current rates of advance. From July 31 to November 26, the occupiers advanced 0.12 km per day.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia's consistent pace of advance on the front does not mean the inevitable capture of Donetsk Oblast. The Kremlin is spreading the narrative of inevitable victory to coerce Ukraine and the West into meeting its demands.
Russian officials and media reject the US peace plan, demanding full compliance with Russia's demands and refusing territorial compromises. The Kremlin is actively shaping public opinion not to agree to anything less than a complete victory in Ukraine.
The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine is expanding cooperation with international partners to document Russian war crimes and environmental damage. Deputy Prosecutor General Andriy Leshchenko met with a delegation from the French Ministry of Justice to discuss this issue.
The Kremlin stated that discussions about a possible prisoner exchange with Ukraine are ongoing, declining to provide details. Earlier, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov reported on agreements regarding the release of 1,200 Ukrainians.
The occupiers are 4 kilometers from Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia region, trying to isolate it from the northeast. They are advancing towards the T-0401 Pokrovske-Huliaipole highway, using foggy weather for attacks.
The US must be able to seize the initiative in the fight against any adversary to deter and win future wars. Russia is moving towards prolonging and expanding the current war, exploiting the weakness of Western countries.
The Russian authorities continue to encourage war crimes against Ukrainian servicemen and civilians. The leader of the far-right Russian paramilitary unit of the sabotage and reconnaissance group "Rusich", Oleksiy Milchakov, distributed photos of the execution of three Ukrainian prisoners of war and offers money for photos with "clearly recorded executed prisoners in the background."
The occupiers are using foggy weather for attacks along the entire front, particularly in the Pokrovsk, Velykomykhailivka, and Huliaipole directions. Ukraine bases its defense on drones, which cannot operate effectively in poor weather conditions.
The Kremlin consistently reaffirms its initial war demands, which include Ukraine's "neutrality," the removal of legitimate Ukrainian authorities, and the establishment of a pro-Russian government. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the war in Ukraine is intended to "reliably guarantee Russia's security" and "thwart NATO and EU plans" to turn Ukraine into a "puppet state."
The advance of Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction remains slow, likely due to exhausting offensive operations across the theater of war. ISW predicts that the Russians will capture Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but with heavy losses and over a long period.
The Kremlin has begun a forced partial mobilization of reservists, likely for use in Ukraine. At least 19 federal subjects are already preparing reservists, allegedly to protect critical infrastructure in Russia.
ISW assesses that providing Ukraine with American Tomahawk missiles would be a response to Russia's use of cruise and ballistic missiles. This would allow Ukraine to strike key Russian military targets located deep in the rear.
The Kremlin is reviving Soviet-era narratives about Russia's "sacrifice" to justify future aggression against Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as long-term societal mobilization. This is part of the Kremlin's concerted effort to justify claims that Russia is at war with all of NATO, not just Ukraine.
According to analysts, the Kremlin is intensifying cognitive warfare to force the US to make decisions favorable to Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, accusing them of inability to negotiate. Russian officials accuse Donald Trump of obstructing peace talks by refusing Russia's maximalist demands.
The test of the Russian cruise missile took place on October 21. Russia claims that the Burevestnik allegedly covered about 14,000 km and was in the air for approximately 15 hours.
