Institute for the Study of War
ISW considers Moscow’s proposal for a one-day ceasefire during the elections unserious. The Kremlin regularly rejects compromise proposals that are unfavorable to Russia
ISW believes that the Kremlin is using the issue of elections to prolong the war. Zelenskyy is ready to hold them under a 60-day ceasefire.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are counterattacking in the direction of the Zherebets River and are preventing the Russians from consolidating their positions. ISW does not confirm the liberation of any new settlements.
ISW forecasts the deployment by Russia of more resilient attack drones in the autumn and winter. They may be used against the energy sector, logistics, and railways.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are pushing Russian forces back near Lyman and advancing toward Zarichne and Myrne. Russia may redeploy troops to protect its flank.
Russia began its winter strike campaign back in September, attacking Ukraine's energy sector and critical infrastructure. ISW explained the Kremlin's calculation.
Russian units in Kupiansk are experiencing problems with supplies and reinforcements. ISW has not confirmed claims of advances near Kivsharivka.
According to ISW, in September Russia did not capture 1,301 sq km, but lost up to 175. 18 sq km of territory. The Kremlin's statements were called part of cognitive warfare.
After the strike on the Pivdennyi Bridge, Kyiv faced kilometer-long traffic jams and queues for public transport. Traffic on several bridges was restricted.
Ukrainian military personnel detected and destroyed three camouflaged Russian tanks in the Oleksandrivka direction. The equipment had been buried 65 km from the front line.
ISW recorded Ukrainian Armed Forces advances near Kupiansk, Sloviansk, Chasiv Yar, and Oleksandrivka. Ukraine liberated Perebudova in Donetsk region.
Following russia's second attack, the core network of the Cosmonova data center was damaged. Some customers may experience internet disruptions.
Russia is carrying out an average of 32 attacks per day near Dobropillia but is not advancing. Ukrainian drones are destroying assault groups and complicating logistics.
Major General Anton Hrunis, commander of the Russian 4th Brigade, was killed in Ukraine. He reported to Putin about the alleged capture of Kostiantynivka.
ISW analysts believe that the Russian drone near Yahodyn was aimed at a train carrying European officials. The drone damaged a passenger train and infrastructure.
According to Russian sources, Ukraine’s Armed Forces counterattacked near Lyman and may have pushed Russian forces back to the Zherebets River. ISW allows for greater gains.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Putin exaggerated the successes of Russian troops in his conversation with Trump. The goal is to increase pressure from Washington on Ukraine.
Analysts assess that exaggerated reports by the Russian military are harming Russia’s operations. At the same time, the Kremlin uses fabricated gains in its demands toward Ukraine.
Putin proposed bolstering Russia’s air defense with volunteers in category D. ISW points to a shortage of systems, personnel, and coordination.
The 17th Army Corps refuted Russian claims about the occupation of Novodanylivka. On September 4, the Defense Forces stopped three attacks in 24 hours on the Orikhiv direction.
The Russian authorities have compiled a secret list of 167 companies and properties for possible state control allegedly due to inadequate protection against drones. ISW warns of broader nationalization of private property.
Of the 73 conscripts who sought assistance after attempting to leave Russia, 23 were refused. The restriction sometimes appears directly at the border.
Of the 32 "Rassvet" satellites, only 12 reached a stable operational altitude. At the same time, the developers announced that service testing had started ahead of schedule.
Russia will agree to peace only on terms that align with Putin's war aims. ISW considers the statement confirmation of the intention to continue the war.
The Kremlin expects to have up to 100 veterans of the war against Ukraine elected to the State Duma of the Russian Federation. According to ISW analysts, the aim is to strengthen the militarization of the authorities.
Russian dictator Putin is trying to conceal the economic damage caused by the war and Ukrainian strikes. Prices, fuel shortages, and labor shortages are increasing in Russia.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers continue to exaggerate Russian advances in the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole directions. According to ISW analysts, the Kremlin is using artificial intelligence to portray Russia’s "successes" at the front.
Russia rejects all proposals for a ceasefire, insisting on the terms of Ukraine's complete capitulation. ISW notes that the Kremlin uses pro-war rhetoric to consolidate society ahead of the State Duma elections.
Ukraine has stopped reporting the number of Russian missiles due to security measures. Kyiv needs more interceptors from allies, especially Patriots.
Russia plans to launch a large-scale strike campaign against Kyiv’s energy infrastructure over the coming weeks. ISW analysts predict that the Russian Federation will use its strategic reserve of ballistic missiles to inflict maximum damage by August 24.