russia is likely planning a buffer zone in Sumy region and an offensive on Sumy - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
russian troops intend to create a buffer zone along the border of Sumy region and possibly advance on Sumy. putin may use this to expand claims to Ukrainian territories.
Russian occupiers are planning to create a buffer zone in the Sumy region and launch an offensive on Sumy. This is stated in the analytical report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Details
It is noted that Russian troops continue to make minor advances in the area of the border between the Sumy and Kursk regions of Russia, but the grouping of Russian troops in this area is unlikely to be able to launch a major offensive operation on the city of Sumy in the near future without receiving significant reinforcements.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said in an interview that Russian troops had intensified their offensive in "all major directions" and had begun offensive operations in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions
ISW has observed gradual but consistent Russian gains and attacks along the Volodymyrivka-Zhuravka-Novenke line (north and northeast of the city of Sumy) in northern Sumy Oblast and ongoing Russian efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from remaining positions south of Suja, Kursk Oblast, Russia, since early March 2025.
Russian troops advanced rapidly in the Kursk region in early March 2025, when the United States temporarily suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but Russian gains slowed as Ukrainian forces withdrew from Suja and subsequently resumed using HIMARS long-range strike systems.
Russian forces ousted Ukrainians from Suja in mid-March 2025 and continued to attack Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region, and have recently begun advancing north of the Sumy region.
The Russian military command is likely trying to form a buffer zone along the border in the Sumy region, although Russian commanders may intend to advance further into the Sumy region and towards the city of Sumy in the future. ISW previously assessed that Russian forces would not attempt to advance further north of the Sumy region or attack the city of Sumy while Ukrainian forces maintain their protrusion in the Kursk region
Experts noted that Russia's recent attacks north of the Sumy region indicate that the Russian military command may try to take advantage of the destruction of the Ukrainian protrusion in the Kursk region to create a buffer zone in the Sumy region or launch an offensive on the city of Sumy and make it uninhabitable for civilians.
It is likely that Putin (the Kremlin leader - ed.) intends to use a buffer zone in the north of the Sumy region and an offensive on the city of Sumy to justify expanding his claims to the territory of Ukraine
"Putin may intend to use further progress in the Sumy region and put pressure on the city of Sumy to demand that Ukraine cede part of the Sumy region to Russia during future peace negotiations," the Institute for the Study of War informs.
"…the informational and political pressure caused by the offensive on the city of Sumy may be more attractive to Putin than advances in other front-line areas," the analysts conclude.
Key ISW findings for April 9:
- Russian troops continue to make minor advances in the area of the border between the Sumy and Kursk regions of the Russian Federation, but the grouping of Russian troops in this area is unlikely to be able to launch a major offensive operation on the city of Sumy in the near future without receiving significant reinforcements.
- The Russian military command is likely trying to form a buffer zone along the border in the Sumy region, although Russian commanders may intend to advance further into the Sumy region and towards the city of Sumy in the future.
- Russia continues to use North Korean troops in the Kursk region, but ISW has not yet seen any signs that North Korean troops are acting as combat forces in Ukraine.
- Syrskyi said that 623,000 Russian soldiers are now fighting against Ukraine.
- He also spoke about Ukraine's efforts to further develop tactical and long-range drone capabilities.
- The People's Republic of China has denied sending troops to fight in Ukraine after reports from Ukraine that Chinese citizens are fighting alongside Russian troops.
- Ukrainian troops advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
- Russian troops advanced near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- The federal authorities of Russia and the subjects of the Russian Federation are paying increasing attention to the issues of rehabilitation and reintegration of veterans.
Let us remind you
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the enemy's offensive on Sumy and Kharkiv regions, which was previously mentioned by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi, "has actually already begun."
The Russians have become more active in the directions of Kharkiv and Sumy regions, but it is not yet possible to talk about an offensive on regional centers, Andriy Kovalenko emphasized.
