Institute for the Study of War
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, rejected conditions for peace in Ukraine. The diplomat confirmed Russia's commitment to addressing the "root causes" of the war.
Today, January 20, marks the Day of Honoring the Defenders of Donetsk Airport.
Putin's administration and "United Russia" have identified five leaders for the State Duma elections in September 2026. The list includes Medvedev, Lavrov, Golovin, Lysenko, and Poddubny.
The Kremlin is preparing the Russian population for a rejection of peace, using Medvedchuk's statements about the absence of peace in Ukraine in 2026. This is happening against the backdrop of negotiations between the US, Ukraine, and Europe.
European countries are strengthening control over maritime transport and compliance with the sanctions regime. Germany denied the tanker Arcusat entry into its waters, and the vessel Hizer Reis also raised suspicions.
The Russian military command is publicly disseminating false information about the battlefield. This is part of a cognitive warfare effort to influence US decisions regarding peace negotiations.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia's goals in Ukraine include Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions. This expands Russia's demands even beyond the 28-point US peace plan.
Russians are increasingly feeling the consequences of the Kremlin's bet on the defense-industrial complex to continue the "special military operation. " This leads to rising inflation and a decline in the quality of life. Putin has increased VAT, shifting the burden of war onto the population.
The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kovalenko, believes that the Russians pursued two goals in this way. One of them is to create a rift between Ukraine and the United States.
In 2025, the Russian army increased the pace of its offensive in Ukraine, capturing 4,831 square kilometers of territory and reclaiming 473 square kilometers in the Kursk region. This was made possible by a new operational model, technological adaptations, and a change in attack tactics.
The Kremlin has not provided evidence for its claims of a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence on December 29, denying the need to do so. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that "no evidence is needed" and also could not answer whether debris remained.
The Kremlin is actively promoting the forced mobilization of reservists to participate in hostilities in Ukraine, as Russia suffers disproportionately high losses. Dictator Putin signed a decree allowing the deployment of reservists to training camps from 2026 to protect critical facilities.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced contact with the US regarding the alleged attack by Ukrainian drones on Putin's residence. Negotiating groups concluded that it was a fake.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War found no video footage or local reports of a possible Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence in the Novgorod region. The circumstances of this alleged attack do not match the pattern of observed evidence of Ukrainian strikes on Russia.
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that the Russian armed forces will not be able to create a strategic reserve, which will force them to advance slowly at the current pace in 2026. The limitations of Russia's available military force are a significant factor preventing rapid advancement.
ISW analysts believe that the Kremlin will have to compromise on its demands that are incompatible with the peace plan. Russia is not interested in a compromise-based settlement, as evidenced by its constant references to the 2024 demands.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War stated that these "attacks" are provocative and accompanied by loud statements from Russian officials and propagandists.
The Kremlin's repeated violation of international law necessitates providing Ukraine with reliable security guarantees to prevent a resurgence of Russian aggression. Russia claims its readiness to legally formalize its intention not to attack EU and NATO countries, but its actions demonstrate the worthlessness of such promises.
The Russian dictator confirmed his intention to seize territories that he considers "historical lands of Russia. " This primarily refers to the south and east of Ukraine.
American negotiators are pushing for Ukraine to cede control of Donetsk and Luhansk regions for peace talks with Russia. Kyiv refuses to withdraw troops from Donbas, despite US demands.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov effectively rejected seven points of the 28-point peace plan proposed by the United States. This includes points regarding territorial exchange based on the line of contact and providing reliable security guarantees for Ukraine.
Russian dictator Putin is trying to portray the Russian economy as capable of sustaining the war in Ukraine, likely to support cognitive warfare. He claimed GDP growth and low inflation, ignoring the connection between economic problems and the war.
The Institute for the Study of War predicts that the Kremlin may use claims of President Zelenskyy's alleged illegitimacy to violate future peace agreements. At the same time, Russian special services are planning destabilization in Ukraine through "peaceful protests."
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia is intensifying covert and overt attacks on Europe, which is part of preparations for a possible war with NATO. Five unidentified drones flew over a French nuclear submarine base on December 4.
The Kremlin is offering a non-aggression pact on Odesa and Mykolaiv as a "concession" in negotiations, even though Russian forces are unable to capture them. Statements by the deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma's defense committee indicate attempts to influence peace talks.
The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Putin is trying to conceal his initial war goals, limiting them to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Kremlin also rejected a US peace proposal without disclosing details.
Russian "war correspondents" are spreading narratives about "preparing an offensive on Chernihiv," but the aggressor has no real forces for this. This is part of Russia's pressure tactics on Ukraine and an attempt to prolong US efforts.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that the Kremlin is setting conditions to refrain from publicly discussing the results of the US-Russian meeting on December 2. This is likely due to a desire to conceal Russia's rejection of the US and Ukraine peace proposal.
The Kremlin is spreading a narrative about Ukraine's imminent collapse to induce the West to capitulate, despite the vulnerabilities of the Russian war effort. Peskov's statements are part of a cognitive effort aimed at creating a false sense of urgency about Russia's victory.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated Ivanivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region, driving out Russian occupiers. Soldiers of the 37th Separate Marine Brigade destroyed 53 and captured 19 Russian servicemen.