Attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian oil refineries could lead to gasoline shortages across Russia, causing inflation to rise. The Kuibyshev and Afipsky oil refineries, which are key to the Russian military industry, were hit.
ISW analysts predict that the Kremlin will not accept US and European proposals on security guarantees for Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly rejected the presence of NATO troops as part of such guarantees.
In Russia, high-ranking officials from three border regions have been detained, accused of embezzling funds allocated for defensive fortifications. The Kremlin is attempting to shift the blame onto them for the failure to repel the Ukrainian invasion in Kursk Oblast.
The leadership of the Russian Federation promotes the idea of the "Russian world," which includes the former territories of Kyivan Rus' and the USSR. Lavrov stated that Russia will achieve military goals by protecting the rights of Russian speakers and ensuring Ukraine's neutrality.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports an increase in the number of credible reports and video recordings of executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces. A former Russian serviceman confirmed orders for executions from the command.
ISW analysts indicate that the Kremlin is trying to justify the disruption of the Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by citing the alleged illegitimacy of the Ukrainian President. Russian officials, including Lavrov, question Zelenskyy's right to sign any peace agreements.
The Kremlin considers a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy unlikely, fearing reputational consequences. Russian officials refuse the meeting, balancing between the domestic audience and sanctions.
The Kremlin insists on the 2022 Istanbul framework agreement as the sole basis for peace negotiations. This would allow Russia to veto Western aid to Ukraine and leave it defenseless.
The Kremlin is trying to impose its terms within the framework of a peaceful settlement, demanding a veto right on security guarantees for Ukraine. This could limit Ukraine's cooperation with partners and its ability to resist future threats.
The Kremlin continues to evade a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky, as proposed by Trump. Moscow stated its readiness for negotiations in the "Istanbul format," which "differs from a meeting of heads of state."
ISW analysts claim that Russia will not be able to quickly occupy the entire Donetsk region by force. Seizing the rest of the territory will take Russian troops several years, as their campaigns have been ongoing since 2014.
Ukraine needs international security guarantees and the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent to deter future Russian aggression. Allowing Russia to occupy the Donetsk region will enable it to resume aggression on more favorable terms.
ISW analysts believe that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk Oblast without a complete ceasefire is risky. This could lead to significant losses and complicate the defense of other territories.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Putin has not changed his views on Ukraine's sovereignty after talks with Trump. He repeated the formulations he has been using since 2021 to justify aggression.
The presidents of the USA and the Russian Federation will hold talks in Alaska on Friday. The meeting was initiated by Putin, Zelensky emphasizes the impossibility of deciding Ukraine's fate without its participation.
The Russian side demands that Ukraine cede strategically important unoccupied territory in Donetsk Oblast. This will allow Russia to gain more advantageous positions for a future offensive on Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
According to analysts, the Kremlin seeks to divide the US and Europe during the upcoming summit in Alaska. Russia is trying to present Ukraine and Europe as an obstacle to peace.
The Kremlin is actively referencing Russian narratives about historical claims to Alaska ahead of the announced Trump-Putin meeting. Russian officials and media have repeatedly stated the need for Alaska to be returned to Russia.
Analysts warn of a possible offensive on Kharkiv Oblast if Ukraine withdraws from Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. This would allow Russia to avoid prolonged fighting and advance to the borders of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that a withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast would create favorable conditions for renewed Russian attacks. This also threatens the loss of the "fortress belt."
Russia uses information campaigns to divide the Trump administration, portraying Witkoff as rational and Trump as irrational. The goal is to undermine US efforts to end the war and achieve unilateral concessions.
ISW analysts claim that the Kremlin has been justifying Putin's maximalist goals for years, securing public support. This makes a peaceful settlement that would not meet Russia's initial military goals impossible.
Russia continues to issue passports in the occupied territories of Ukraine, using administrative leverage. In Luhansk region, the fee for a Russian passport has been canceled for stateless persons and orphans.
Russian Sberbank is expanding its influence in the occupied territories of Ukraine, integrating them into the Russian financial system. Sberbank's subsidiary, "SberMobile", has started operating in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, becoming the first Russian federal operator in these territories.
Peskov stated that the preparatory work for the meeting between Putin and Zelensky has not yet been completed. Putin considers the meeting possible after all issues are resolved at the expert level.
Expert Vitaliy Begma said that Russians are adding a flammable mixture to "Shaheds" to intensify fires. Ukraine has learned to combat these drones, which are not as dangerous as ballistic missiles.
Russia is actively re-equipping Donetsk airport for launching attack drones. This will allow it to reduce the reaction time of Ukrainian air defense and increase the number of attacks.
Russian troops made minor advances in the Lyman and Pokrovsk directions, according to an analytical report by ISW. Geolocated footage confirms Russian advances east of Lyman and in the area of Novoukrainka.
ISW analysts claim that the Kremlin is not interested in a compromise that does not mean Ukraine's capitulation. Lavrov's statements from August 1 are consistent with the positions of Putin and Lukashenka, confirming Moscow's unchanged demands.
Vladimir Putin stated that negotiations with Ukraine are in demand, but emphasized that Russia's demands from June 2024 remain valid. Moscow is ready to wait if Kyiv believes now is not the time for negotiations.
