The Institute for the Study of War concluded that Russia is not interested in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine, focusing on continuing the war. Statements by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirm that Russia seeks to achieve its "unchanging" goals, including the "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues to tighten internet censorship, preparing to ban WhatsApp. The replacement will be the Kremlin-controlled MAX platform, despite WhatsApp's popularity among 84 million users.
The occupation administration of Crimea earned over 28 million dollars in the first half of 2025 from the sale of "nationalized" Ukrainian property. This accounts for almost half of the profit received over the previous two years of the full-scale invasion.
Russia uses traditional narratives and nuclear threats to distance the US from Ukraine and NATO. The Kremlin has updated its nuclear doctrine to include a clause on aggression by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear one.
The Russian army continues attempts to break through the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in several directions, but Ukrainian defenders are holding back the enemy. According to ISW, the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced in Sumy Oblast, while the Russians advanced in the Kupyansk and Toretsk directions.
Russian occupation authorities are intensifying pressure on residents of occupied territories, demanding re-registration of SIM cards by November 1 and installing "Russian world" satellite dishes. The Russification of schools through "patriotic" curricula is also ongoing.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's statement about not wanting Russia to be defeated in Ukraine contradicts Beijing's public statements about neutrality. ISW analysts believe this indicates an interconnected future for Beijing and Moscow.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War predict that Russia will not be able to capture the entire Donetsk region by the end of 2025. This confirms the statement by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, about the unrealistic nature of such Kremlin plans.
The Kremlin is using diplomatic ties with the US to divert attention from the war in Ukraine, emphasizing the restoration of US-Russian relations. The Russian Foreign Ministry reported on discussions of bilateral issues unrelated to the war between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced the swift agreement of a new round of negotiations with the USA. The dialogue on prisoner exchange continues, specialized structures are interacting, there is only a technical pause.
Russian occupiers regrouped a month ago, making the Novopavlivka direction a priority, and have some success there. They use the tactic of advancing in small groups, despite significant losses, accumulating in destroyed villages.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Borova area, while Russian invaders advanced in the Novopavlivka area. The Russian army also captured Piddubne in Donetsk Oblast and Lobkove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The head of the "LPR" Leonid Pasichnyk announced the full occupation of Luhansk region, but the Ukrainian side refutes this. Fighting continues near Bilohorivka, Hrekivka, Nadiia, and Novoiehorivka, as well as in Serebryansky forest.
ISW analysts indicate that the Russian Federation has larger territorial ambitions in Ukraine than Crimea and the four annexed regions. Putin and his inner circle use narratives about "Donbas", "Novorossiya" and "one people" to justify their encroachments.
ISW analysts called the combined Russian strike on Ukraine on the night of June 29 the largest since February 2022. The invaders launched 537 aerial assault weapons, targeting civilian, railway, and industrial infrastructure.
Analysis of satellite imagery shows that Russia is using remnants of Soviet armored vehicles, which require restoration, for the war against Ukraine. The value of this resource is diminishing; the enemy is switching to motorcycles and buggies.
The Kremlin continues to use Dmitry Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric to undermine Western support for Ukraine. Medvedev expresses threats regarding Ukraine's accession to the EU and accuses the European Union of "Russophobia" and militarization.
According to analysts, Russia is preparing for a future attack on NATO countries and is creating conditions to justify aggression against former Soviet Union states that are not members of the Alliance. The Kremlin is using the "protection of compatriots" and the concept of the "Russian world", which is a continuation of the rhetoric that preceded the invasion of Ukraine.
The Kremlin is trying to increase Russia's combat power by subordinating the armed forces of the CSTO countries to Russian command. The Russian State Duma ratified a protocol allowing the rapid transfer of CSTO troops to the territory of other member states.
Russian military are actively expanding the use of motorcycles on the front lines in Ukraine, integrating them into attack tactics and supporting military operations. They use motorcycles for sabotage, reconnaissance, infiltration, evacuation and logistics, and also train soldiers and plan to equip more than half of the infantry forces with similar vehicles.
Russia is preparing the public and military for a potential war with NATO. NATO Secretary General Rutte points to Russia as the biggest existential threat and warns of a possible attack within 3-7 years, while Ukrainian President Zelenskyy believes that Russia will be ready for war with NATO by 2030.
Russia uses escalatory rhetoric to persuade NATO countries not to increase defense spending. Putin and his associates declare "global militarization" by NATO and threaten "preventive measures" in response.
Russia demonstrates the limitations of its strategic relations with Iran, providing only diplomatic support. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi met in Moscow with Putin and other Russian officials to discuss further assistance, but Russia is limited in its capabilities due to the war in Ukraine.
Putin continues to believe in a war of attrition, betting on gradual troop advances. His theory of victory involves endless advances and Ukraine's inability to counterattack.
Analysts consider the statements of the Russian dictator about negotiations with Zelensky without signing an agreement to be meaningless. The Kremlin distorts Ukrainian legislation, calling Zelensky's government illegitimate to avoid future agreements.
The US does not plan to lower the limit price for Russian oil in the G7. The EU and Britain want to lower the ceiling to $45 per barrel to put pressure on Russia's income.
Russia has tightened filtration measures against Ukrainians, restricting their movement from the temporarily occupied territories. Now, even deleting information from phones can be grounds for denying entry to the Russian Federation.
Crimea's reservoirs are rapidly losing water, which could lead to a deficit like in 2020-2021. The occupying authorities prioritize water supply to resorts, ignoring the needs of the local population.
Russia links arms control talks to US concessions on the war in Ukraine. Moscow insists on respecting its "interests" to resume dialogue.
Russian officials announced an offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region, but ISW did not find any geolocation confirmations. Analysts believe that this is a continuation of efforts in the Donetsk region.
