ISW: Ukraine needs international security guarantees and peacekeepers to deter Russian aggression
Kyiv • UNN
Ukraine needs international security guarantees and the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent to deter future Russian aggression. Allowing Russia to occupy the Donetsk region will enable it to resume aggression on more favorable terms.
Ukraine needs reliable international security guarantees and the immediate deployment of an international peacekeeping contingent to deter future Russian aggression. This is stated in the material of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Details
It is noted that the probable surrender of currently unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast to Russia will contribute to the preparation of Russian forces for renewed aggression against Ukraine on much more favorable terms, avoid a long and bloody struggle for this territory, and provide Russia with the opportunity to build up reserves of human resources and weapons.
Allowing Russia to occupy the rest of Donetsk Oblast would mean handing over Ukraine's "fortress belt" to Russian troops
They remind that Russian troops have not been able to advance to the "fortress belt" or capture it since the autumn of 2022.
The Russian military command will almost certainly work to quickly establish strong positions throughout the "fortress belt" and use its infrastructure for military production if Ukrainian forces withdraw their positions from Donetsk Oblast
They add that the border area of Donetsk Oblast is naturally poorly suited to act as a reliable defensive line due to the small number of settlements, open fields, and natural obstacles such as the Oskil and Siversky Donets rivers.
"Thus, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops across the border of Donetsk Oblast would also require the deployment of strong international peacekeeping forces and massive investments in infrastructure compatible with a large-scale, long-term ceasefire monitoring mission to prevent future Russian aggression. However, the lack of a full ceasefire on the front line and long-range strikes will likely hinder the deployment of these international forces," analysts summarize.
Recall
According to ISW forecasts, Ukrainian forces will not be able to carry out a safe and orderly withdrawal of troops from the unoccupied part of Donetsk Oblast in accordance with the demand of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin without a complete ceasefire throughout the theater of operations.