Minus $2 trillion since October: what broke Bitcoin and has a new crypto crisis begun?

In February, Bitcoin dropped to $63,000, and since October 2025, the crypto market has lost about $2 trillion in capitalization, dragging down the shares of companies with large crypto reserves and increasing nervousness in stock markets. Against the backdrop of tougher expectations regarding the Fed's policy, regulatory signals from key jurisdictions, and a massive outflow of funds from crypto funds, the industry is entering a phase of "crypto winter" and is forced to recalculate risks, from miners to public companies and politically sensitive projects.

What is happening in the virtual currency market, whether the recent fall will be the beginning of the end of crypto money, and what investors should expect - read in the UNN material.

Global Risk and the Fed: Macroeconomic Factors Behind Bitcoin's Decline

Bitcoin's fall to $63,000 in February 2026, half of its peak, was due to a sharp deterioration in "risk appetite" in global markets.

At the end of 2025, leading US stock indices began to lose ground amid fears of an overheated technology sector (in particular, the possible bubble growth of artificial intelligence stocks). Cryptocurrencies, more closely integrated with global markets, reacted with a synchronous decline.

Additional pressure was caused by US monetary policy. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chairman, signaling a tighter monetary policy. Markets "feared the hawk" - expectations that the Fed would shrink its balance sheet and not provide liquidity became one of the factors in the sell-off of crypto assets.

Regulatory Initiatives and Market Rules

The dynamics were also influenced by changes in the regulatory environment. The Trump administration declared support for the crypto industry, but the actual absence of new rules alarmed observers. Some politicians in the US accuse Trump's team of conflicts of interest and excessive leniency in regulation, especially after news of significant foreign investments in crypto projects related to his family.

Meanwhile, other countries, on the contrary, tightened supervision. In February 2026, China announced another step against cryptocurrencies. In particular, it banned the issuance of yuan-pegged stablecoins without state permission. This continues a series of harsh actions by Beijing, which had previously led to market crashes. Such initiatives increase uncertainty and hinder capital inflow into the cryptocurrency sector.

Investor Sentiment: From Euphoria to Capitulation

The sharp reversal of Bitcoin's course from its historical high of $126,000 (October 2025) to current levels is accompanied by a shift in sentiment from euphoria to panic.

At the peak, bold forecasts prevailed (some banks expected growth to $150,000 - $200,000), but by early 2026, the market entered a phase of "total capitulation." Investors are massively realizing losses and exiting positions, which further pressures the price. Analysts note that this is not a short-term correction, but a longer period of market reset that could last for months.

In addition, the trust of traditional participants is being undermined. According to Deutsche Bank, billions of dollars have been withdrawn from cryptocurrency funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) every month since October 2025, indicating growing pessimism among institutional investors. As a result of such shocks, market participants have gone on the defensive, sharply reducing demand for risky assets.

The Role of Big Players and "Whales"

The actions of large crypto asset holders deepened the scale of the fall. During the growth period of 2024-2025, many public companies, following the example of MicroStrategy, accumulated Bitcoins in reserves. However, with the onset of the downturn, these hodlers began to suffer huge paper losses and lose capitalization.

MicroStrategy, which was the flagship of the trend, lost about 76% of its stock value from its peak in six months. Other corporate investors in BTC in the US, Europe, and Asia also fell by double-digit percentages.

Large private holders ("whales") could provoke additional fluctuations by taking profits at market tops. Now, the market is concerned about potential problems for miners: if the price remains low for longer, mining companies may be forced to sell mined coins to cover costs. This threatens a new wave of supply and a new round of decline. Thus, the reversal of large players from buying to selling became one of the driving forces of the current collapse.

60 - 63 thousand dollars per Bitcoin is not yet the bottom: economist on fall scenarios and what's next

Bitcoin's fall to levels around $60,000 - $63,000 in February once again highlighted an old problem of the crypto market: it lives not so much on economic foundations as on narratives, expectations, and the fear of missing out on the last chance to get rich.

In an exclusive comment for UNN, economist and international expert Ihor Harbaruk calls the situation not an accident, but a regularity.

"This is an absolutely systemic situation, a systemic moment. Cryptocurrency is a rather ephemeral product that cannot be controlled or comprehended in any way."

In this framework, price declines are perceived as a consequence of a change in informational temperature.

According to the UNN speaker, the crypto market is very dependent on the information background. And as long as an optimistic tone dominates the information field, money "comes in," quotes grow, and the ephemerality of the asset is masked by hype. When there is more negativity and risks in the news feed, the effect works in reverse.

Separately, the economist emphasizes the absence of a system of safeguards.

"The real existence of a risk control system in the cryptocurrency market... it simply doesn't exist physically. It's just absent."

For an investor, this means an unpleasant thing: in traditional finance, risks are at least attempted to be measured; in crypto, there is often not even a common language to agree on what to consider a normal level of volatility.

The UNN interlocutor also links the current phase of decline to broader events that have occurred in the United States.

"All the events with pressure on Europe... Canada, Mexico... they took their toll. (In addition, - ed.) The Fed is also tightening the screws completely."

In such an environment, liquidity becomes more expensive and the attractiveness of less risky instruments increases, while speculative assets traditionally suffer first.

At the same time, Harbaruk does not consider the $60,000 mark to be the bottom of the crypto market.

"60 thousand dollars, that's not the bottom yet. The decline could be significantly greater."

According to him, the logic here is unpleasant but practical: it's easy to fall, but difficult to recover, especially if the driver was not demand for utility, but belief in eternal growth.

To the thesis about the possible rapid end of the crypto market, Ihor Harbaruk answers directly:

"Absolutely not. This market is beneficial to strong players and works as a mechanism for the transfer of real funds. It is a tool for enrichment for all of them (financial elites, - ed.), but also a tool for pumping real funds out of the market. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer."

Therefore, the scenario he describes is more about changing the market's shell than about its demise.

"It (the virtual currency market, - ed.) will simply undergo certain transformations. New (currencies, - ed.) will emerge, tools will change. That is, disappearance is unlikely, but a reformatting of the rules of the game and waves of bankruptcies, mergers, and restarts look realistic."

In addition, the expert directly calls crypto a "pyramid" and advises investors who are ready to invest funds not to spend them on virtual assets, but to turn their attention to at least precious metals such as gold and silver. After all, during periods of nervous liquidity, an investor seeks assets with a clear nature of risk and at least a minimally predictable demand model.

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Another niche that Ihor Harbaruk offers investors is the so-called "real sector of the economy."

"Yes, it's more difficult and slower, but more restrained, it can (save, - ed.) savings and generate profit."

In the context of Ukraine, he specifically highlights the defense-industrial complex and infrastructure as niches in which one can start investing. 

Bitcoin's fall in February 2026: consequences for the market, companies, and exchanges

Since early October 2025, the global cryptocurrency market has lost over $2 trillion in capitalization. Bitcoin has fallen to 16-month lows, and Ethereum and other altcoins have dropped by 30-50% since the beginning of the year. This collapse has increased volatility in traditional markets: investors have become more cautious, which has also affected high-tech stocks.

Companies that actively invested in Bitcoin suffered the biggest losses. For example, MicroStrategy's shares fell by almost 76% from their peak. Projects related to the Trump family also suffered a significant blow: the mining company American Bitcoin Corp fell by approximately 78% (from a peak of $9.3 to $1.9), shares of the TMTG media holding lost about 74%, and the WLFI token depreciated by a third.

Cryptocurrency exchanges are also forced to adapt to the "crypto winter." Trading volumes have fallen, and profits are melting, so large platforms are optimizing their operations.

For example, the Gemini exchange announced a 25% staff reduction and the curtailment of its business in Europe and Australia. Other players are experiencing similar difficulties: from falling Coinbase quotes to bankruptcies of individual smaller exchanges, which is a direct consequence of the overall downturn in the crypto market.

Prospects in the cryptocurrency market: recovery or prolonged "winter"?

Further developments in the crypto market will depend on macroeconomic trends and the regulatory environment.

The pessimistic scenario assumes that 2026 will be a prolonged period of stagnation for Bitcoin - the so-called "crypto winter." High interest rates and low liquidity could keep the price at relatively low levels, and a new significant rise would be postponed until economic conditions improve. Industry representatives openly talk about the possibility of such a scenario. For example, Strategy management warned of the risk as early as autumn.

The optimistic scenario relies on a potential easing of monetary policy and a gradual return of investor interest. Futures markets are already pricing in a high probability of Fed rate cuts in 2026, which could bring capital back into risky assets.

Some analysts expect Bitcoin to recover when the Federal Reserve shifts from a tight policy to an easing one, and if new products like Bitcoin ETFs start attracting fresh funds.

Standard Chartered bank predicted at the end of 2025 that after the last downturn, Bitcoin would no longer fall below $100,000, although they had previously expected growth to $200,000.

Overall, the market is searching for a new balance. The "most overheated" projects have already disappeared or shrunk, and the industry is "cleansing" itself of excesses. Those companies and investors who maintain faith in Bitcoin's fundamental value view the current low prices as an opportunity for gradual accumulation of the asset for the long term.

At the same time, most financial analysts agree that a quick return to record values should not be expected: recovery, if it happens, will likely be gradual, as macroeconomic conditions improve and confidence in the cryptocurrency sector is restored.

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