Consequences of Ukraine losing control over Donetsk Oblast for the front - ISW forecast

The Russian side demands that Ukraine cede strategically important unoccupied territory in the Donetsk region, offering nothing in return. This is reported by UNN with reference to the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Details

As ISW writes, Putin's proposal requires Ukraine to cede a critical defensive position that Russian forces currently do not have the means to quickly occupy in exchange for nothing.

The exact terms of Putin's position remain unclear. However, Trump administration officials, including US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, have offered four different presentations of Putin's terms

Currently, the fortress belt consists of four large cities and several towns and settlements stretching from north to south along the H-20 Kostiantynivka-Sloviansk highway. The length of the belt is 50 kilometers.

It is noted that for the past 11 years, Ukraine has been strengthening defensive structures in and around these cities. Sloviansk and Kramatorsk form the northern half of the fortress belt and serve as significant logistical hubs for Ukrainian forces defending in the Donetsk region.

Druzhkivka, Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka serve as the southern half of the fortress belt. Ukraine first began building up defensive positions in and around these cities after recapturing them from the occupiers in April 2014.

"Russia's inability to capture Sloviansk in 2022 and the ongoing struggle to envelop the fortress belt underscore the success of Ukraine's long-term efforts to strengthen the cities of the fortress belt. Russian forces are currently still trying to envelop the fortress belt from the southwest and are trying to capture it, which will likely take several years," the Institute for the Study of War reports. 

According to analysts, allowing Russian forces to take positions along the border with the Donetsk region would require Ukrainian forces to urgently build massive defensive fortifications along the border areas of the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. However, this terrain is poorly suited for a defensive line.

Potential Ukrainian defensive lines in this area would run through open fields, and natural obstacles such as the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers are located too far to the east to serve as defensive positions for Ukrainian forces.

"A potential ceasefire along the Donetsk region border would also require massive investment in infrastructure compatible with a large-scale long-term ceasefire monitoring mission," ISW writes.

At the same time, Russian positions along the border areas of the Donetsk-Kharkiv and Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk regions would provide a much more advantageous starting point for a future offensive on the adjacent areas of the Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk regions than the current lines.

In particular, the cession of Lyman, Donetsk region, to Russian occupation would create favorable conditions for the Russians to attack Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv region on the eastern bank of the Oskil River.

"Russian forces may try to reverse their efforts in 2022 and use Sloviansk and further advance along the E-40 Kharkiv-Novoshakhtinsk highway to attack Izium," ISW states.

Russian forces also hold limited positions along the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region southwest of Pokrovsk. However, the cession of the rest of the Donetsk region would allow the Russians to avoid completing current efforts to capture Pokrovsk.

Russian forces would also not have to fight through Ukraine's westernmost defensive line of Dobropillia-Bilozerka-Novodonetske-Oleksandrivka, which also runs north to south, similar to the fortress belt. Thus, the cession of the rest of the Donetsk region would also provide Russian forces with more advantageous positions for an offensive on the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Recall

US President Donald Trump and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin will hold a meeting on August 15, 2025, at Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, Alaska.   

President Zelenskyy emphasizes that Donbas is a springboard for Russia's offensive, and its loss would open the way for further aggression. The issue of territories must be an integral part of security guarantees.

Ukraine is considering freezing the front, recognizing Russia's control over occupied lands, provided there are security guarantees and a path to NATO. This comes ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting.

Putin and Trump to meet at military base in Anchorage - CNN13.08.25, 01:48 • 4464 views