Ukraine will not be able to safely withdraw troops from Donetsk Oblast without a complete ceasefire - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
ISW analysts believe that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk Oblast without a complete ceasefire is risky. This could lead to significant losses and complicate the defense of other territories.
Ukrainian forces will not be able to conduct a safe and orderly withdrawal from the unoccupied part of Donetsk Oblast in accordance with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's demand without a complete ceasefire throughout the theater of operations. This is stated in a material by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reported by UNN.
Details
It is noted that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the rest of Donetsk Oblast, which "would be a major strategic military and political concession," without a complete ceasefire that extends to long-range strikes and all frontline actions, would pose serious risks both for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces and for Ukrainian troops in rear areas of Kharkiv Oblast.
Analysts indicate that Putin did not propose a ceasefire that would allow Ukrainian troops to safely withdraw across the Donetsk Oblast border and defend rear areas from renewed Russian aggression on the flanks.
The administrative border of Donetsk Oblast is far from Ukraine's main defensive line in Donetsk Oblast, known as the "fortress belt," and even if Putin implemented a ceasefire long enough for Ukrainian troops to withdraw their forces from Donetsk Oblast, renewed Russian ground attacks and fire from both advancing troops in Donetsk Oblast and forces on the flanks in Kharkiv Oblast would threaten Ukrainian troops along the front line and in the rear
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They also point out that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops will likely lead to a large concentration of forces along major Ukrainian logistical routes and defensive structures, which Russian aviation, drones, and artillery will likely shell after the ceasefire expires.
These strikes will reduce the combat capabilities of Ukrainian troops, including Ukraine's ability to defend against renewed Russian efforts to advance into Kharkiv Oblast from Donetsk Oblast or along the right flank in Kharkiv Oblast
They add that Russians in Donetsk Oblast will likely also receive fire support from troops already operating in neighboring Kharkiv Oblast, which will further threaten the rear of retreating Ukrainian troops.
"A partial ceasefire that does not extend to Russian military actions in Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts will be insufficient to ensure the safe withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the rest of Donetsk Oblast," ISW warns.
Recall
According to The New York Times, US President Donald Trump, after meeting with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska, told European leaders that he supports a plan to end the war in Ukraine by transferring unconquered territory to Russian occupiers, rather than attempting a ceasefire.