Kremlin's demands for security guarantees for Ukraine imply Russia's veto right - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
The Kremlin is trying to impose its terms within the framework of a peaceful settlement, demanding a veto right on security guarantees for Ukraine. This could limit Ukraine's cooperation with partners and its ability to resist future threats.
The Kremlin is likely trying to impose its demands on the joint efforts of the US, Europe, and Ukraine to create a security structure that will serve as protection against a future Russian re-invasion in the event of a peaceful settlement. This is stated in the material of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Details
Analysts recall that European leaders recently issued a joint statement confirming that no peace agreement should restrict the Armed Forces of Ukraine or its cooperation with third countries, and that Russia cannot have a veto right regarding Ukraine's path to joining the European Union or NATO.
Granting Russia a veto right on security guarantees from the West would allow the Kremlin to dictate terms that would weaken Ukraine's ability to resist a new Russian invasion, preventing Ukraine from concluding bilateral or multilateral security agreements, ... increasing and modernizing its armed forces, and receiving support from partners
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They suggest that the Kremlin is likely insisting that any security guarantees be based on those proposed in the framework agreement of the 2022 Istanbul Conference, which would have given Russia and its allies a veto right on Western military aid to Ukraine and would have left Ukraine helpless in the face of future Russian threats.
In the Security Guarantees proposed in the draft Istanbul Protocol of 2022, Russia is considered a neutral "guarantor state" of Ukraine's security along with other permanent members of the UN Security Council, without defining Russia as a belligerent in the war. The outlined security guarantees would have given China and Russia a veto right on any actions that the guarantors could take in response to a renewed Russian offensive, giving the UN Security Council the authority to take "measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security"
Analysts warn that such "security guarantees" would allow the Kremlin and its allies to dictate the means and tools that Ukraine could use to defend against Russia, and would limit the ability of other guarantor states to come to Ukraine's aid.
Recall
The Chiefs of General Staff of NATO countries met on August 20. They confirmed their support for Ukraine, emphasizing the priority of a just and lasting peace.