Institute for the Study of War

Russia demonstrates the limitations of its strategic relations with Iran, providing only diplomatic support. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi met in Moscow with Putin and other Russian officials to discuss further assistance, but Russia is limited in its capabilities due to the war in Ukraine.

Putin continues to believe in a war of attrition, betting on gradual troop advances. His theory of victory involves endless advances and Ukraine's inability to counterattack.

Analysts consider the statements of the Russian dictator about negotiations with Zelensky without signing an agreement to be meaningless. The Kremlin distorts Ukrainian legislation, calling Zelensky's government illegitimate to avoid future agreements.

The US does not plan to lower the limit price for Russian oil in the G7. The EU and Britain want to lower the ceiling to $45 per barrel to put pressure on Russia's income.

Russia has tightened filtration measures against Ukrainians, restricting their movement from the temporarily occupied territories. Now, even deleting information from phones can be grounds for denying entry to the Russian Federation.

Crimea's reservoirs are rapidly losing water, which could lead to a deficit like in 2020-2021. The occupying authorities prioritize water supply to resorts, ignoring the needs of the local population.

Russia links arms control talks to US concessions on the war in Ukraine. Moscow insists on respecting its "interests" to resume dialogue.

Russian officials announced an offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region, but ISW did not find any geolocation confirmations. Analysts believe that this is a continuation of efforts in the Donetsk region.

The Human Rights Council under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on the world to increase pressure on Russia due to the deportation, Russification and assimilation of Ukrainian children. The return of children is a priority for Ukraine.

The Trump administration remains silent on the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This may indicate a shift in the US approach to mediating the war.

Russia denies the systematic abduction of Ukrainian children, calling it a "rescue. " Ukraine has handed over a list of hundreds of deported children, but Russia recognizes only "dozens."

Russia did not provide Ukraine with a draft memorandum before the meeting in Istanbul, which delayed negotiations. Russia continues to demand significant territorial and political concessions from Ukraine.

Ukrainian troops advanced west of Zaporizhzhia, near Vovchansk and Toretsk. The Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war with Ukraine and a possible conflict with NATO.

The Kremlin demands concessions from the United States regarding negotiations on peace in Ukraine, insisting on a change in NATO policy. Russia is not taking any steps to meet them.

China is increasing the supply of drones to Russia, while reducing their sales to Ukraine and Western countries. Russia uses Chinese equipment, and Beijing does not stop trying to recruit Chinese people into military units.

Russian officials are trying to impose their conditions and time for peace talks on Ukraine. The Kremlin wants to use any gains on the front to gain concessions from Ukraine.

Putin will be ready for a gradual advance in Ukraine, believing that Russia can fight for years. He is replenishing losses at the front, but Western aid to Ukraine can change this.

Putin's demands regarding the cessation of war in Ukraine indicate the Kremlin's desire to force the West to "surrender" Ukraine and dismantle NATO. Russia intends to increase its territorial claims.

The ISW believes that the Russian Federation is trying to convince the West to stop military support for Ukraine. Permission to strike the Russian Federation threatens the ability to continue strikes on Ukraine.

Russia is adapting strike systems and increasing the production of drones to prepare for a long war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has about 500 ballistic missiles.

russia has changed the tactics of using drones, increasing the flight altitude and resistance to electronic warfare. The production of launchers has also been налагоджено, which will increase the number of strikes on Ukraine.

ISW analysts calculated that it would take Russia 91 years and 50 million casualties to capture Medvedev's proposed "buffer zone" in Ukraine, given the current rate of advance.

According to analysts, Russia seeks to end Western aid to Ukraine in order to win the war. The Russian advance has slowed, they are suffering losses and relying on poorly trained infantry.

Deputy commander of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade Maksym Zhorin believes that the creation of a buffer zone will lead to the loss of territories and battles for Sumy and Kharkiv. Putin plans to seize the Sumy region.

Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Sybiga stated that Putin's statements about the "buffer zone" undermine efforts to cease fire and promote peace. He stressed that Putin remains the sole reason for the continuation of the war.

The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Kovalenko, stated that Putin does not want to cease fire by creating a "buffer zone".

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced the creation of a "buffer zone" along the borders with Ukraine. According to ISW, he plans to capture Sumy and annex the Sumy region.

Russia rejects US ceasefire proposals, adhering to a tactic of gradual battlefield successes. The Kremlin continues to confuse the processes of ceasefire and peaceful settlement.

Putin discussed with officials of the Kursk region plans to seize Sumy and create a buffer zone. Russia may use progress in the Sumy region for new demands in "peace" negotiations.

The Kremlin questions the sovereignty of Ukraine and the legitimacy of its leaders, which contradicts Putin's agreements on negotiations. Any agreement must include recognition of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities.