Institute for the Study of War
Vladimir Putin has stated Russia's readiness to abide by the limitations of the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty for another year, which expires on February 5, 2026. This step aims to maintain the status quo, but only on the condition that the US does not upset the balance of power.
Kremlin insiders indicate that Putin remains committed to a war of attrition strategy against Ukraine and the West. He believes that military escalation will force Ukraine into peace negotiations on his terms.
Russia continues to deport Ukrainian children and teenagers to the Russian Federation, using military-patriotic and civic programs. For example, teenagers from occupied Chaplynka participated in the "Zarnitsa 2.0" competition in the Volgograd region, and "Yunarmia" cadets from the Zaporizhzhia region participated in the "Train of Heroes" project.
The Russian military command continues to signal its commitment to Putin's theory of victory, according to which Russia can win a war of attrition against Ukraine. Putin's and Gerasimov's statements are consistent with this theory, which assumes that Russia has the resources for gradual advancement and victory.
Russian officials, likely with Putin's approval, dismissed Dmitry Kozak from his position as deputy head of the presidential administration. This happened after years of Kozak's disagreement with the policy regarding the war in Ukraine, including his opposition to the invasion and proposals for peace negotiations.
Poland shows the fastest GDP growth among 26 EU countries, with a projected growth of 3. 3% in 2026. Since 2017, the country's economy has grown by 93%, and the zloty has become the most successful currency among emerging markets.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Russia is assessing NATO's capabilities and reaction through drone attacks on Poland and Poland and Romania. These attacks may be an attempt to gain experience for future aggression against the Alliance.
Russia and Belarus have likely abandoned attempts to use the "Zapad-2025" exercises to support nuclear operations against the West. Belarusian officials softened their rhetoric after the incident with Russian drones in Poland.
Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials continue their attempts to weaken Western unity by threatening foreign troops in Ukraine. ISW notes that these statements are aimed at intimidating European states.
Expert Serhiy Kuyun predicts a possible decrease in gasoline and diesel prices by 1-2 hryvnias in autumn. This is due to a decrease in wholesale prices and the stability of the fuel market.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, stated that Russia is not against Ukraine's accession to the EU, but NATO is a "red line. " He also did not rule out joint operation of the ZNPP under "favorable circumstances."
The Institute for the Study of War assesses the Kremlin's publication of a statement by former President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych as an attempt by Moscow to legitimize him. This was likely a staged information operation timed to Putin's speech at the SCO summit.
The Kremlin has intensified information efforts to deter Western support for Ukraine and undermine European participation in a peaceful settlement. These actions include accusing European states of prolonging the war and threatening with nuclear weapons.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the interception of 21 drones on the night of August 31. 19 drones were shot down over the Volgograd and Rostov regions, and one each over Belgorod and Bryansk.
The Russian military leadership provides unreliable data on successes at the front, overstating territorial gains. This is part of the Kremlin's information campaign aimed at convincing the West of Russia's inevitable victory and stopping support for Ukraine.
Ukraine's Defense Forces struck the Krasnodar and Syzran oil refineries on the night of August 30. These plants produce fuel for the Russian military.
The Kremlin commented on the assumption regarding a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Peskov stated that a meeting is possible, but allegedly requires preparation at an expert level.
Attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian oil refineries could lead to gasoline shortages across Russia, causing inflation to rise. The Kuibyshev and Afipsky oil refineries, which are key to the Russian military industry, were hit.
ISW analysts predict that the Kremlin will not accept US and European proposals on security guarantees for Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly rejected the presence of NATO troops as part of such guarantees.
In Russia, high-ranking officials from three border regions have been detained, accused of embezzling funds allocated for defensive fortifications. The Kremlin is attempting to shift the blame onto them for the failure to repel the Ukrainian invasion in Kursk Oblast.
The leadership of the Russian Federation promotes the idea of the "Russian world," which includes the former territories of Kyivan Rus' and the USSR. Lavrov stated that Russia will achieve military goals by protecting the rights of Russian speakers and ensuring Ukraine's neutrality.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports an increase in the number of credible reports and video recordings of executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces. A former Russian serviceman confirmed orders for executions from the command.
ISW analysts indicate that the Kremlin is trying to justify the disruption of the Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by citing the alleged illegitimacy of the Ukrainian President. Russian officials, including Lavrov, question Zelenskyy's right to sign any peace agreements.
The Kremlin considers a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy unlikely, fearing reputational consequences. Russian officials refuse the meeting, balancing between the domestic audience and sanctions.
The Kremlin insists on the 2022 Istanbul framework agreement as the sole basis for peace negotiations. This would allow Russia to veto Western aid to Ukraine and leave it defenseless.
The Kremlin is trying to impose its terms within the framework of a peaceful settlement, demanding a veto right on security guarantees for Ukraine. This could limit Ukraine's cooperation with partners and its ability to resist future threats.
The Kremlin continues to evade a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky, as proposed by Trump. Moscow stated its readiness for negotiations in the "Istanbul format," which "differs from a meeting of heads of state."
ISW analysts claim that Russia will not be able to quickly occupy the entire Donetsk region by force. Seizing the rest of the territory will take Russian troops several years, as their campaigns have been ongoing since 2014.
Ukraine needs international security guarantees and the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent to deter future Russian aggression. Allowing Russia to occupy the Donetsk region will enable it to resume aggression on more favorable terms.
ISW analysts believe that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk Oblast without a complete ceasefire is risky. This could lead to significant losses and complicate the defense of other territories.