Institute for the Study of War

Analysis of satellite imagery shows that Russia is using remnants of Soviet armored vehicles, which require restoration, for the war against Ukraine. The value of this resource is diminishing; the enemy is switching to motorcycles and buggies.

The Kremlin continues to use Dmitry Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric to undermine Western support for Ukraine. Medvedev expresses threats regarding Ukraine's accession to the EU and accuses the European Union of "Russophobia" and militarization.

According to analysts, Russia is preparing for a future attack on NATO countries and is creating conditions to justify aggression against former Soviet Union states that are not members of the Alliance. The Kremlin is using the "protection of compatriots" and the concept of the "Russian world", which is a continuation of the rhetoric that preceded the invasion of Ukraine.

The Kremlin is trying to increase Russia's combat power by subordinating the armed forces of the CSTO countries to Russian command. The Russian State Duma ratified a protocol allowing the rapid transfer of CSTO troops to the territory of other member states.

Russian military are actively expanding the use of motorcycles on the front lines in Ukraine, integrating them into attack tactics and supporting military operations. They use motorcycles for sabotage, reconnaissance, infiltration, evacuation and logistics, and also train soldiers and plan to equip more than half of the infantry forces with similar vehicles.

Russia is preparing the public and military for a potential war with NATO. NATO Secretary General Rutte points to Russia as the biggest existential threat and warns of a possible attack within 3-7 years, while Ukrainian President Zelenskyy believes that Russia will be ready for war with NATO by 2030.

Russia uses escalatory rhetoric to persuade NATO countries not to increase defense spending. Putin and his associates declare "global militarization" by NATO and threaten "preventive measures" in response.

Russia demonstrates the limitations of its strategic relations with Iran, providing only diplomatic support. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi met in Moscow with Putin and other Russian officials to discuss further assistance, but Russia is limited in its capabilities due to the war in Ukraine.

Putin continues to believe in a war of attrition, betting on gradual troop advances. His theory of victory involves endless advances and Ukraine's inability to counterattack.

Analysts consider the statements of the Russian dictator about negotiations with Zelensky without signing an agreement to be meaningless. The Kremlin distorts Ukrainian legislation, calling Zelensky's government illegitimate to avoid future agreements.

The US does not plan to lower the limit price for Russian oil in the G7. The EU and Britain want to lower the ceiling to $45 per barrel to put pressure on Russia's income.

Russia has tightened filtration measures against Ukrainians, restricting their movement from the temporarily occupied territories. Now, even deleting information from phones can be grounds for denying entry to the Russian Federation.

Crimea's reservoirs are rapidly losing water, which could lead to a deficit like in 2020-2021. The occupying authorities prioritize water supply to resorts, ignoring the needs of the local population.

Russia links arms control talks to US concessions on the war in Ukraine. Moscow insists on respecting its "interests" to resume dialogue.

Russian officials announced an offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region, but ISW did not find any geolocation confirmations. Analysts believe that this is a continuation of efforts in the Donetsk region.

The Human Rights Council under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on the world to increase pressure on Russia due to the deportation, Russification and assimilation of Ukrainian children. The return of children is a priority for Ukraine.

The Trump administration remains silent on the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This may indicate a shift in the US approach to mediating the war.

Russia denies the systematic abduction of Ukrainian children, calling it a "rescue. " Ukraine has handed over a list of hundreds of deported children, but Russia recognizes only "dozens."

Russia did not provide Ukraine with a draft memorandum before the meeting in Istanbul, which delayed negotiations. Russia continues to demand significant territorial and political concessions from Ukraine.

Ukrainian troops advanced west of Zaporizhzhia, near Vovchansk and Toretsk. The Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war with Ukraine and a possible conflict with NATO.

The Kremlin demands concessions from the United States regarding negotiations on peace in Ukraine, insisting on a change in NATO policy. Russia is not taking any steps to meet them.

China is increasing the supply of drones to Russia, while reducing their sales to Ukraine and Western countries. Russia uses Chinese equipment, and Beijing does not stop trying to recruit Chinese people into military units.

Russian officials are trying to impose their conditions and time for peace talks on Ukraine. The Kremlin wants to use any gains on the front to gain concessions from Ukraine.

Putin will be ready for a gradual advance in Ukraine, believing that Russia can fight for years. He is replenishing losses at the front, but Western aid to Ukraine can change this.

Putin's demands regarding the cessation of war in Ukraine indicate the Kremlin's desire to force the West to "surrender" Ukraine and dismantle NATO. Russia intends to increase its territorial claims.

The ISW believes that the Russian Federation is trying to convince the West to stop military support for Ukraine. Permission to strike the Russian Federation threatens the ability to continue strikes on Ukraine.

Russia is adapting strike systems and increasing the production of drones to prepare for a long war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has about 500 ballistic missiles.

russia has changed the tactics of using drones, increasing the flight altitude and resistance to electronic warfare. The production of launchers has also been налагоджено, which will increase the number of strikes on Ukraine.

ISW analysts calculated that it would take Russia 91 years and 50 million casualties to capture Medvedev's proposed "buffer zone" in Ukraine, given the current rate of advance.

According to analysts, Russia seeks to end Western aid to Ukraine in order to win the war. The Russian advance has slowed, they are suffering losses and relying on poorly trained infantry.