Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council, stated that Russia will continue strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure in February 2026. The aggressor country does not intend to stop the war.
In 2025, Russians killed at least 2,919 civilians and wounded 17,775, an increase of 12% and 25% respectively compared to 2024. Drone strikes caused the majority of civilian casualties.
Russia is blocking WhatsApp and other Western platforms to regain control over the information space. The Kremlin aims to transfer Russians to the state messenger Max.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council, stated that the actions of the Russians at the front indicate their readiness to fight until autumn. President Zelenskyy noted that the end of the war by summer depends on the United States.
Vladimir Putin signed a decree subordinating Rosgvardia to the General Staff of the Russian Federation, headed by Valery Gerasimov. This will strengthen Gerasimov's control over security forces, rewarding his loyalty.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, commented on Die Welt's publication about a possible large-scale Russian offensive in the spring-summer of 2026. Kovalenko noted that the enemy's plans are known, and Ukraine's Defense Forces are doing everything to thwart them.
According to analysts, Russia used a temporary "moratorium" on strikes against energy targets to accumulate drones and missiles. After that, it launched devastating attacks on Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues to reject security guarantees for Ukraine, citing the 2022 "Istanbul Protocol. " This document would leave Ukraine defenseless against aggression.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has simplified the procedure for verifying Starlink terminals in the DELTA system for military personnel. Now, every DELTA user can independently enter information about the terminal, which will speed up equipment confirmation.
A massive Starlink failure in the occupied territories of Ukraine caused panic among Russian units. Troop command was paralyzed, leading to a "friendly fire" incident in the Zaporizhzhia direction, where a 12-person assault group was killed.
The Institute for the Study of War reports that blocking Starlink terminals for Russians will affect their attempts to strike Ukrainian logistics. SpaceX blocked the terminals at the request of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine after they were found on Russian drones.
Donald Trump's approach to peace talks between Ukraine and Russia could lead to an agreement that will not stop the war. This would create conditions for a new Russian invasion, The Telegraph notes.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Russian side is not making concessions and is not changing its demands for an end to the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin demands the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from all Russian-occupied territories and also wants Ukraine to remain under Russian influence.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is trying to convince the US to negotiate only with Russia, and not with Ukraine and Europe. The Kremlin seeks to use economic agreements and arms talks to extract concessions from Trump on Ukraine.
ISW analysts claim that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus. Russia is using Belarus to invade Polish and Lithuanian airspace as part of its "zero-phase" efforts to create informational and psychological conditions for preparing for a potential war with NATO.
Russian strikes have significantly damaged Ukraine's energy grid, leading to its degradation and significant disruptions. Even during a moratorium on strikes, the grid faces problems.
The Kremlin disagrees with the US position that territorial control over the Donetsk region is the only unresolved issue in the negotiations. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov stated that territorial issues are important, but many others remain on the agenda.
According to ISW analysts, the Kremlin is resuming rhetoric on nuclear arms control. This is being done to pressure the US into pushing Ukraine for concessions in exchange for normalizing relations.
ISW analysts believe that the Kremlin is using the lack of clarity regarding the Alaska summit in August 2025 to create the illusion of "joint American-Russian understanding" on ending the war in Ukraine. Russia is trying to avoid US pressure by balancing between demonstrating strength and engagement.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia's intensified campaign of long-range strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure aims to split Ukraine's energy grid in half. Russia wants to create "energy islands" cut off from power generation, supply, and transmission systems.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, rejected conditions for peace in Ukraine. The diplomat confirmed Russia's commitment to addressing the "root causes" of the war.
Today, January 20, marks the Day of Honoring the Defenders of Donetsk Airport.
Putin's administration and "United Russia" have identified five leaders for the State Duma elections in September 2026. The list includes Medvedev, Lavrov, Golovin, Lysenko, and Poddubny.
The Kremlin is preparing the Russian population for a rejection of peace, using Medvedchuk's statements about the absence of peace in Ukraine in 2026. This is happening against the backdrop of negotiations between the US, Ukraine, and Europe.
European countries are strengthening control over maritime transport and compliance with the sanctions regime. Germany denied the tanker Arcusat entry into its waters, and the vessel Hizer Reis also raised suspicions.
The Russian military command is publicly disseminating false information about the battlefield. This is part of a cognitive warfare effort to influence US decisions regarding peace negotiations.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia's goals in Ukraine include Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions. This expands Russia's demands even beyond the 28-point US peace plan.
Russians are increasingly feeling the consequences of the Kremlin's bet on the defense-industrial complex to continue the "special military operation. " This leads to rising inflation and a decline in the quality of life. Putin has increased VAT, shifting the burden of war onto the population.
The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kovalenko, believes that the Russians pursued two goals in this way. One of them is to create a rift between Ukraine and the United States.
In 2025, the Russian army increased the pace of its offensive in Ukraine, capturing 4,831 square kilometers of territory and reclaiming 473 square kilometers in the Kursk region. This was made possible by a new operational model, technological adaptations, and a change in attack tactics.
