The Kremlin is trying to impose its terms within the framework of a peaceful settlement, demanding a veto right on security guarantees for Ukraine. This could limit Ukraine's cooperation with partners and its ability to resist future threats.
The Kremlin continues to evade a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky, as proposed by Trump. Moscow stated its readiness for negotiations in the "Istanbul format," which "differs from a meeting of heads of state."
ISW analysts claim that Russia will not be able to quickly occupy the entire Donetsk region by force. Seizing the rest of the territory will take Russian troops several years, as their campaigns have been ongoing since 2014.
Ukraine needs international security guarantees and the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent to deter future Russian aggression. Allowing Russia to occupy the Donetsk region will enable it to resume aggression on more favorable terms.
ISW analysts believe that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk Oblast without a complete ceasefire is risky. This could lead to significant losses and complicate the defense of other territories.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that Putin has not changed his views on Ukraine's sovereignty after talks with Trump. He repeated the formulations he has been using since 2021 to justify aggression.
The presidents of the USA and the Russian Federation will hold talks in Alaska on Friday. The meeting was initiated by Putin, Zelensky emphasizes the impossibility of deciding Ukraine's fate without its participation.
The Russian side demands that Ukraine cede strategically important unoccupied territory in Donetsk Oblast. This will allow Russia to gain more advantageous positions for a future offensive on Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
According to analysts, the Kremlin seeks to divide the US and Europe during the upcoming summit in Alaska. Russia is trying to present Ukraine and Europe as an obstacle to peace.
The Kremlin is actively referencing Russian narratives about historical claims to Alaska ahead of the announced Trump-Putin meeting. Russian officials and media have repeatedly stated the need for Alaska to be returned to Russia.
Analysts warn of a possible offensive on Kharkiv Oblast if Ukraine withdraws from Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. This would allow Russia to avoid prolonged fighting and advance to the borders of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that a withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast would create favorable conditions for renewed Russian attacks. This also threatens the loss of the "fortress belt."
Russia uses information campaigns to divide the Trump administration, portraying Witkoff as rational and Trump as irrational. The goal is to undermine US efforts to end the war and achieve unilateral concessions.
ISW analysts claim that the Kremlin has been justifying Putin's maximalist goals for years, securing public support. This makes a peaceful settlement that would not meet Russia's initial military goals impossible.
Russia continues to issue passports in the occupied territories of Ukraine, using administrative leverage. In Luhansk region, the fee for a Russian passport has been canceled for stateless persons and orphans.
Russian Sberbank is expanding its influence in the occupied territories of Ukraine, integrating them into the Russian financial system. Sberbank's subsidiary, "SberMobile", has started operating in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, becoming the first Russian federal operator in these territories.
Peskov stated that the preparatory work for the meeting between Putin and Zelensky has not yet been completed. Putin considers the meeting possible after all issues are resolved at the expert level.
Expert Vitaliy Begma said that Russians are adding a flammable mixture to "Shaheds" to intensify fires. Ukraine has learned to combat these drones, which are not as dangerous as ballistic missiles.
Russia is actively re-equipping Donetsk airport for launching attack drones. This will allow it to reduce the reaction time of Ukrainian air defense and increase the number of attacks.
Russian troops made minor advances in the Lyman and Pokrovsk directions, according to an analytical report by ISW. Geolocated footage confirms Russian advances east of Lyman and in the area of Novoukrainka.
ISW analysts claim that the Kremlin is not interested in a compromise that does not mean Ukraine's capitulation. Lavrov's statements from August 1 are consistent with the positions of Putin and Lukashenka, confirming Moscow's unchanged demands.
Vladimir Putin stated that negotiations with Ukraine are in demand, but emphasized that Russia's demands from June 2024 remain valid. Moscow is ready to wait if Kyiv believes now is not the time for negotiations.
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia will continue the war against Ukraine, despite Trump's 10-day ultimatum. The Kremlin seeks to normalize relations with the US and strengthen cooperation to avoid the deadline.
Analysts believe that Putin will not make concessions in the war, as this would question the expediency of the military campaign in the eyes of Russian society. The Kremlin is actively building domestic support for the war, portraying Russia as a country fighting the West.
Russian forces have increased the intensity of armored vehicle use in tactical attacks since early July 2025, conducting smaller mechanized assaults. This follows a decrease in their use during the winter of 2024-2025 and the absence of company-sized mechanized assaults since April 2025.
Russia is increasing its production of missiles and drones, which will allow it to launch larger-scale attacks on Ukraine in the autumn of 2025. ISW analysts predict up to 2,000 drones per night by November 2025.
Russian officials are delaying top-level negotiations between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that Russia is only feigning interest in negotiations to buy time.
The water crisis in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine is intensifying, leading to unsanitary living conditions. The Khanzhenkivske reservoir has become shallow, and the Don-Donbas water pipeline has reached critically low levels, causing a water shortage in the Donetsk region and Berdiansk.
ISW analysts believe that only significant military failures will force Putin to reconsider Russia's ability to defeat Ukraine. The Kremlin is delaying peace talks to continue the offensive and gain concessions.
Western investments in the development and production of interceptor drones in Ukraine are critically important for countering Russian strike attacks. Russia has significantly increased the number of strike drones, launching up to 728 units per night, and could reach 2,000 by November 2025.
