Institute for the Study of War
The US and Israel are striking Iranian drone and missile production facilities. At the same time, the US is limiting Ukraine's capabilities by refusing to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, stated that US strikes on Iran could cost the American economy up to $210 billion. The lowest damage figure is $40 billion.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is trying to position himself as a mediator between Iran and the Persian Gulf states. This is happening against the backdrop of a US-Israeli operation against Iran.
Russia refuses to support Iran after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Putin expressed condolences but did not mention the US or Israel.
Ukraine is considering the possibility of creating consortia with allies to develop air defense systems capable of shooting down ballistic missiles. This will also help overcome the shortage of ammunition for Patriot systems.
The Kremlin manipulates international law to create a false legal justification for aggression and to absolve itself of responsibility for violating Ukraine's borders in 2014 and 2022.
Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and uses its infrastructure to attack Ukraine and destabilize NATO. Belarus has lost its sovereignty and is an accomplice in the aggression.
American financier Gentry Beach, linked to the Trump family, has struck a deal with Russia's Novatek to develop a gas project in Alaska. This cooperation comes amid Russia's war against Ukraine and Western sanctions.
Russia is likely using "temporary accommodation centers" to forcibly displace Ukrainians in the occupied territories or deport them to Russia. This is being done under the guise of "humanitarian evacuation."
Last week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated 201 square kilometers of territory, taking advantage of the Russians' loss of Starlink. This is the largest recaptured territory since June 2023.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council, stated that Russia will continue strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure in February 2026. The aggressor country does not intend to stop the war.
In 2025, Russians killed at least 2,919 civilians and wounded 17,775, an increase of 12% and 25% respectively compared to 2024. Drone strikes caused the majority of civilian casualties.
Russia is blocking WhatsApp and other Western platforms to regain control over the information space. The Kremlin aims to transfer Russians to the state messenger Max.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council, stated that the actions of the Russians at the front indicate their readiness to fight until autumn. President Zelenskyy noted that the end of the war by summer depends on the United States.
Vladimir Putin signed a decree subordinating Rosgvardia to the General Staff of the Russian Federation, headed by Valery Gerasimov. This will strengthen Gerasimov's control over security forces, rewarding his loyalty.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, commented on Die Welt's publication about a possible large-scale Russian offensive in the spring-summer of 2026. Kovalenko noted that the enemy's plans are known, and Ukraine's Defense Forces are doing everything to thwart them.
According to analysts, Russia used a temporary "moratorium" on strikes against energy targets to accumulate drones and missiles. After that, it launched devastating attacks on Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues to reject security guarantees for Ukraine, citing the 2022 "Istanbul Protocol. " This document would leave Ukraine defenseless against aggression.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has simplified the procedure for verifying Starlink terminals in the DELTA system for military personnel. Now, every DELTA user can independently enter information about the terminal, which will speed up equipment confirmation.
A massive Starlink failure in the occupied territories of Ukraine caused panic among Russian units. Troop command was paralyzed, leading to a "friendly fire" incident in the Zaporizhzhia direction, where a 12-person assault group was killed.
The Institute for the Study of War reports that blocking Starlink terminals for Russians will affect their attempts to strike Ukrainian logistics. SpaceX blocked the terminals at the request of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine after they were found on Russian drones.
Donald Trump's approach to peace talks between Ukraine and Russia could lead to an agreement that will not stop the war. This would create conditions for a new Russian invasion, The Telegraph notes.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Russian side is not making concessions and is not changing its demands for an end to the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin demands the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from all Russian-occupied territories and also wants Ukraine to remain under Russian influence.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is trying to convince the US to negotiate only with Russia, and not with Ukraine and Europe. The Kremlin seeks to use economic agreements and arms talks to extract concessions from Trump on Ukraine.
ISW analysts claim that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus. Russia is using Belarus to invade Polish and Lithuanian airspace as part of its "zero-phase" efforts to create informational and psychological conditions for preparing for a potential war with NATO.
Russian strikes have significantly damaged Ukraine's energy grid, leading to its degradation and significant disruptions. Even during a moratorium on strikes, the grid faces problems.
The Kremlin disagrees with the US position that territorial control over the Donetsk region is the only unresolved issue in the negotiations. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov stated that territorial issues are important, but many others remain on the agenda.
According to ISW analysts, the Kremlin is resuming rhetoric on nuclear arms control. This is being done to pressure the US into pushing Ukraine for concessions in exchange for normalizing relations.
ISW analysts believe that the Kremlin is using the lack of clarity regarding the Alaska summit in August 2025 to create the illusion of "joint American-Russian understanding" on ending the war in Ukraine. Russia is trying to avoid US pressure by balancing between demonstrating strength and engagement.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia's intensified campaign of long-range strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure aims to split Ukraine's energy grid in half. Russia wants to create "energy islands" cut off from power generation, supply, and transmission systems.