Institute for the Study of War
According to analysts' assessments, the Kremlin seeks to create a false sense of political urgency for its negotiating partners. In this way, Russia is trying to force Ukraine to cede the unoccupied part of the Donbas, which Russian forces have been unable to take on the battlefield.
AFU attacks on the port and refinery in Tuapse caused damages exceeding 300 million dollars. Strikes in April and May significantly damaged Russian infrastructure.
In April 2026, the Russian Federation lost 116 sq. km of territory for the first time since August 2024. The pace of Russia's advancement on the battlefield has been steadily declining since November 2025.
Attacks on Russian infrastructure have reduced oil refining volumes to 4. 69 million barrels per day. This is the industry's lowest figure in the last 16 years.
State VCIOM poll shows drop in Putin's approval from 66,7% to 65,6%. Kremlin advises media to use higher data from the "Public Opinion Forum" or not publish reports at all.
ISW reports four unsuccessful Russian attacks in various directions of the front. Analysts consider these actions to be reconnaissance-in-force, which will not strengthen the enemy's overall offensive.
Russian military complains about air defense overload and lack of anti-aircraft missiles to protect ports. ISW reports on the creation of mobile fire groups in Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is restricting the supply of UAVs to regular units through a new distribution system. ISW experts predict an increase in corruption and a shortage of drones in the aggressor country.
Analysts interpret Moscow's rhetoric as an attempt to conceal panic over Orban's election loss. Russia is losing the ability to block aid to Ukraine through Hungary.
Ukrainian military forces are making progress near Kupyansk, Yampil, Pokrovsk, and Huliaipole. Russian occupiers have not been able to advance on any of the offensive sectors.
Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service groundlessly accused EU leaders of developing nuclear weapons. ISW considers this an attempt by Moscow to spoil US-EU relations.
The dictator's approval rating fell to 71% amid restrictions on the messenger's operation. Discontent is growing among military bloggers and small businesses in Russia.
The occupiers began combining night and day shelling for constant pressure. ISW reports an increased threat to civilians due to the duration of the attacks.
Russians increased the number of patrols and blocked the bus station to check men. Residents of Luhansk region also massively complain about blocked bank cards.
ISW exposed Russia's information campaign regarding the alleged collapse of Ukrainian defense. Analysts call statements about the rapid capture of Donetsk region absurd.
Ukrainian forces have achieved their greatest successes since 2024 and liberated 480 sq. km. Russia's advance has slowed due to losses and underequipped infantry.
The occupiers are accumulating missiles for massive attacks along with UAVs to increase casualties. ISW predicts the launch of series of over 1000 drones by autumn 2025.
Russian forces have launched large-scale mechanized attacks in the Lyman direction. The goal of the operation is to break through the main defensive line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and capture cities.
The Kremlin tried to exchange intelligence on Iran for an end to US support for Ukraine. The Trump administration rejected the Russian proposals.
The occupiers have activated armored vehicles in three directions in preparation for the summer campaign. ISW predicts attacks on the "fortress belt" and an increase in enemy losses.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are successfully attacking enemy artillery and radars to disrupt the spring offensive. Dozens of Russian air defense systems were hit during the winter and early spring of 2026.
ISW analysts believe that the temporary US permission to buy Russian oil will strengthen Russia's war economy. Rising oil prices and the US decision will provide Russia with greater flexibility, support the Russian domestic economy, and finance the Russian armed forces.
Russian propaganda created a fake video about weapons from Ukraine allegedly ending up in the Middle East. ISW and partners do not confirm any facts of theft.
Ukrainian experts will teach Persian Gulf countries how to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles. Three states plan to purchase Ukrainian UAV interception systems.
The General Staff updated data on enemy losses: 930 occupiers and 2558 UAVs were eliminated in a day. The total number of destroyed tanks reached 11,742 units.
The occupiers increased the share of ballistic missiles in their salvos to 50 percent. ISW attributes this to the depletion of interceptor stockpiles in Ukraine due to the conflict in the Middle East.
The Russian command has redeployed elite units from the Pokrovsk direction due to the successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russia has previously used the redeployment of elements of the 76th Airborne Division to respond to critical situations on the front.
Russian forces have intensified strikes on Ukraine's railway infrastructure since July 2025, and are also increasing their use of Shahed drones both on the front lines and for attacks on critical infrastructure. This is leading to civilian deaths and injuries.
The US and Israel are striking Iranian drone and missile production facilities. At the same time, the US is limiting Ukraine's capabilities by refusing to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, stated that US strikes on Iran could cost the American economy up to $210 billion. The lowest damage figure is $40 billion.