The test of the Russian cruise missile took place on October 21. Russia claims that the Burevestnik allegedly covered about 14,000 km and was in the air for approximately 15 hours.
Russia is trying to use Kirill Dmitriev's visit to the United States to spread pro-Kremlin narratives in the American information space. This is happening against the backdrop of US sanctions against Russian oil companies and debates about providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles.
The Kremlin's threats of military retaliation for the possible provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by the US are part of long-standing rhetorical efforts to convince the West of Russia's inevitable victory. ISW analysts note that Russia ignores the reality of minimal progress and high losses, using threats to conceal its own military weaknesses.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces are successfully eliminating Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups attempting to penetrate Pokrovsk. The Pokrovsk direction remains one of the hottest sectors of the front, where almost 40 combat engagements took place in the last day.
The Kremlin is deliberately cluttering the information space with false statements and information operations to conceal attacks against Europe. Russian special services are participating in cognitive warfare to spread confusion among Western countries and their populations.
The transfer of Tomahawk missiles by the US will not lead to a significant escalation of the war, but will be a symmetrical response to Russia's use of long-range cruise missiles. This will allow Ukraine to inflict damage on key Russian military facilities.
The Kremlin applies the same narratives to the Baltic states as it did to justify invasions of former Soviet republics. This creates conditions for possible Russian aggression against NATO in the future.
Russia is experiencing an armored crisis due to the war in Ukraine, but is actively increasing the production of new T-90 tanks. Moscow plans to produce more than 1,100 new and modernized tanks by 2029, circumventing sanctions to purchase equipment.
Any ceasefire in Ukraine will allow Russia to redeploy troops to the eastern border with NATO, creating a threat. ISW analysts believe that Russia is already preparing for a possible war against NATO.
Russia's efforts to increase military recruitment through high financial incentives are not yielding results. The number of people signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense is not increasing, even in regions with the highest financial incentives.
Russia could pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than 2036, as predicted by Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies. Russia's constant sabotage and intelligence activities indicate the creation of informational and psychological conditions for a future war against NATO.
Russian forces likely accumulated ballistic and cruise missiles throughout September 2025 to conduct several separate large-scale drone and missile strikes across Ukraine. Ukrainian Patriot air defense systems remain the only systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.
Russia is intensifying the destabilization of Europe, as evidenced by unidentified drones in the airspace and provocations by warships. Belgium is investigating drone incursions, which may be part of Russia's hybrid campaign.
Vladimir Putin has stated Russia's readiness to abide by the limitations of the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty for another year, which expires on February 5, 2026. This step aims to maintain the status quo, but only on the condition that the US does not upset the balance of power.
Kremlin insiders indicate that Putin remains committed to a war of attrition strategy against Ukraine and the West. He believes that military escalation will force Ukraine into peace negotiations on his terms.
Russia continues to deport Ukrainian children and teenagers to the Russian Federation, using military-patriotic and civic programs. For example, teenagers from occupied Chaplynka participated in the "Zarnitsa 2.0" competition in the Volgograd region, and "Yunarmia" cadets from the Zaporizhzhia region participated in the "Train of Heroes" project.
The Russian military command continues to signal its commitment to Putin's theory of victory, according to which Russia can win a war of attrition against Ukraine. Putin's and Gerasimov's statements are consistent with this theory, which assumes that Russia has the resources for gradual advancement and victory.
Russian officials, likely with Putin's approval, dismissed Dmitry Kozak from his position as deputy head of the presidential administration. This happened after years of Kozak's disagreement with the policy regarding the war in Ukraine, including his opposition to the invasion and proposals for peace negotiations.
Poland shows the fastest GDP growth among 26 EU countries, with a projected growth of 3. 3% in 2026. Since 2017, the country's economy has grown by 93%, and the zloty has become the most successful currency among emerging markets.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Russia is assessing NATO's capabilities and reaction through drone attacks on Poland and Poland and Romania. These attacks may be an attempt to gain experience for future aggression against the Alliance.
Russia and Belarus have likely abandoned attempts to use the "Zapad-2025" exercises to support nuclear operations against the West. Belarusian officials softened their rhetoric after the incident with Russian drones in Poland.
Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials continue their attempts to weaken Western unity by threatening foreign troops in Ukraine. ISW notes that these statements are aimed at intimidating European states.
Expert Serhiy Kuyun predicts a possible decrease in gasoline and diesel prices by 1-2 hryvnias in autumn. This is due to a decrease in wholesale prices and the stability of the fuel market.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, stated that Russia is not against Ukraine's accession to the EU, but NATO is a "red line. " He also did not rule out joint operation of the ZNPP under "favorable circumstances."
The Institute for the Study of War assesses the Kremlin's publication of a statement by former President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych as an attempt by Moscow to legitimize him. This was likely a staged information operation timed to Putin's speech at the SCO summit.
The Kremlin has intensified information efforts to deter Western support for Ukraine and undermine European participation in a peaceful settlement. These actions include accusing European states of prolonging the war and threatening with nuclear weapons.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the interception of 21 drones on the night of August 31. 19 drones were shot down over the Volgograd and Rostov regions, and one each over Belgorod and Bryansk.
The Russian military leadership provides unreliable data on successes at the front, overstating territorial gains. This is part of the Kremlin's information campaign aimed at convincing the West of Russia's inevitable victory and stopping support for Ukraine.
Ukraine's Defense Forces struck the Krasnodar and Syzran oil refineries on the night of August 30. These plants produce fuel for the Russian military.
The Kremlin commented on the assumption regarding a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Peskov stated that a meeting is possible, but allegedly requires preparation at an expert level.
