ISW: Putin is unlikely to abandon his ambitions for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire
Kyiv • UNN
The Kremlin continues to demand that Ukraine give up the occupied territories. Putin will not abandon his ambitions, even after a ceasefire, ISW analysts believe.
Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is unlikely to abandon his ambitions regarding Ukraine. This conclusion was reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.
Details
Analysts at the Institute report that US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine will receive indefinite security guarantees in exchange for indefinite territorial concessions.
Waltz also stated that the United States is considering the "reality of the situation on the ground" in diplomatic negotiations, discussing the end of the war in Ukraine.
It is unclear exactly what Waltz meant by "the reality of the situation on the ground." Russian officials have often used the narrative that any negotiations should take into account the "realities on the ground," referring to the current front line in Ukraine and their claims about the inevitability of further Russian victories on the battlefield
It is noted that Waltz's recognition that Ukraine will receive indefinite security guarantees is a key aspect of achieving US President Donald Trump's stated goal of ensuring lasting peace in Ukraine, but a cessation of hostilities on unprotected lines would limit the effectiveness of security guarantees.
According to researchers, the current front line does not provide the strategic depth Ukraine needs to reliably defend against renewed Russian aggression.
Russian troops are on the opposite bank of the Dnieper from Kherson, approximately 25 kilometers from Zaporizhzhia and 30 kilometers from Kharkiv. Russian troops on the Dnieper could use a truce to prepare for the extremely difficult task of unimpeded crossing of the river, which would significantly increase the likelihood of success in this operation. Stopping a well-prepared large mechanized offensive in the cold is an extremely rare occurrence in war, which means that the resumption of the Russian offensive is likely to almost immediately threaten both Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, and the key cities of the Donetsk "fortress belt."
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia is building a large highway and railway aimed at connecting major cities in occupied Ukraine and Russia, which will strengthen Russia's control over occupied Ukraine and Russia's ability to transport and supply Russian forces operating in Ukraine in the event of a future Russian offensive in southern Ukraine.
The US and Europe will likely have to provide military assistance to Ukraine faster, in much larger volumes, and at a higher cost the closer the final ceasefire lines are to the current front line. Ukraine will likely need an even larger army with greater capabilities to play its crucial role in deterring and, if necessary, defeating future aggression along the current front line (both inside Ukraine and along the international border with Russia) stretching over 2,100 kilometers.
Maintaining a ceasefire along the current front line will also require the involvement of a large number of Western forces. Helping Ukraine regain strategically important territories, as Trump put it, could significantly reduce the cost and complexity of ensuring future peace.
A ceasefire on more secure positions would also put Russian forces at a disadvantage to resume offensive operations, making future Russian aggression less likely.
However, Russian officials maintain their maximalist territorial claims over all of occupied and much of unoccupied Ukraine.
Senior Kremlin officials, including Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, have consistently demanded that Ukraine cede all territory in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including areas not yet occupied by Russian forces, and have reaffirmed these demands in recent weeks.
The Kremlin's continued statements demanding that Ukraine cede unoccupied Ukrainian territories suggest that the Kremlin and Putin remain committed to these territorial goals, despite ongoing negotiations.
In addition, Putin has repeatedly called on Ukraine to permanently abandon its goals of joining NATO or any security bloc and reject future offers of foreign military assistance, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently stated that Russia would reject future deployments of any European peacekeepers in Ukraine and would consider any such deployment as "direct, official, overt intervention by NATO countries" in the war.
Given the Kremlin's demands, ISW notes, it is unlikely that Putin will abandon his ambitions regarding Ukraine even after a ceasefire.
Key ISW takeaways for March 16:
- Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine will receive indefinite security guarantees in exchange for indefinite territorial concessions.
- The current front lines do not provide the strategic depth that Ukraine will need to reliably defend against renewed Russian aggression.
- However, Russian officials maintain their maximalist territorial claims over all of occupied and much of unoccupied Ukraine.
- Russian officials have given no public indications that they are willing to compromise on their territorial or security demands on Ukraine.
- Russia continues to use diplomatic relations with the United States to normalize its military demands.
- The United Kingdom convened a virtual Summit of the Coalition of the Willing on March 15 to reaffirm support for Ukraine and discuss peace plans.
- Ukrainian troops advanced near Borova, and Russian troops advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Velyka Novoselka.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to position itself as solving problems with the Russian military.
Reminder
US Secretary of State Rubio announced US plans to end the war in Ukraine. Plan "A" is a ceasefire, plan "B" is negotiations at the table for a final end to the war.
US President Donald Trump is trying to convince the Russian president to sit down at the negotiating table to achieve peace in Ukraine. But, if Vladimir Putin plays with Trump, he will regret it, said Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.
President of Finland: Putin does not want peace, Ukraine needs weapons16.03.25, 15:34 • 54416 views
