how russia reacted to a possible ceasefire - ISW analysis
Kyiv • UNN
The US and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, but Russian ultranationalists rejected the proposal. Russian state media is trying to show a moderate reaction for the domestic audience.
Russian ultranationalists did not accept the proposal for a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, but Russian state media "are trying to show Russia's reaction as moderate for the domestic audience." This is reported by UNN with reference to the analytical review of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Details
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War point out that the United States of America and Ukraine agreed on a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine during a meeting in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) on March 11, subject to Russia's consent, and the United States has reportedly resumed intelligence sharing and military assistance.
It is noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the truce would include a cessation of hostilities along the entire front line, a moratorium on long-range missile and drone strikes, and a cessation of operations in the Black Sea, and would begin as soon as Russia agrees to the US proposal.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a press conference on March 11, answered a question about the deadline for Russia's response, describing it as "as soon as possible".
At the same time, researchers write that Russian ultranationalists and officials have expressed disapproval of the ceasefire proposal. According to Russian bloggers, including those close to the Kremlin, the United States and Ukraine will allegedly "abandon" peace "at the first opportunity," and the war in Ukraine is "existential for Russia." These bloggers also stated that accepting a truce would be "pure treason and sabotage."
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian State Duma deputy and former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation, Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev, said that Russia should not agree to an "unacceptable" proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, as this would allow Ukraine to rearm and regroup.
At the time of this publication, the Kremlin has not officially reacted to the ceasefire proposal, and Russian state media are trying to present Russia's previous official statements about bilateral US-Russian talks as a response to the ceasefire proposal
In addition, the report indicates that after the ceasefire proposal was announced, Russian state media disseminated a statement by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, made earlier in the day on March 11, that Russia "does not rule out" contacts with the United States in the next few days.
Mikhail Sheremet, a member of the Russian State Duma's Security Committee, said before the joint statement was released that Russia is interested in a settlement in Ukraine, but will not allow itself to be deceived, and Russian state media only amplified Sheremet's statement after the ceasefire proposal.
Russian state media are likely trying to portray Russia's reaction as moderate for the domestic audience until Kremlin officials make public statements and lay the groundwork for broader coverage of the proposal in the Russian media
Key ISW findings for March 11:
- The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, subject to Russia's consent, and the United States has reportedly resumed intelligence sharing and military assistance.
- Ukraine's allies and partners from Europe, Asia and Oceania continue to make efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian army and provide Ukraine with security guarantees - the most effective deterrent against potential Russian aggression against Ukraine after a possible future peace agreement.
- Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances in the Kursk region and have likely launched an offensive on Sudzha.
- On the night of March 10-11, Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone strikes on Russia, mainly targeting the Moscow region.
- Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Robotyne, and in the Kursk region.
- The Kremlin continues to expand social benefits for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine, including soldiers who fought on the side of the so-called "DPR" and "LPR" militias since 2014.
Recall
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that hundreds of Ukrainian drones allegedly attacked the country on the night of March 11, and that 337 of them were allegedly shot down.
On March 11, Jeddah hosted a meeting of Ukrainian and US delegations on establishing peace. The parties discussed a 30-day ceasefire, the resumption of intelligence support, and the start of peace talks.
The European Union supported the joint statement of Ukraine and the United States on peace after negotiations in Saudi Arabia. Now Russia must demonstrate its readiness for peace, the EU said.
The OP announced the discussion of ceasefire details next week12.03.25, 02:00 • 16345 views
