ISW: Russian offensive pace has increased, but they are still advancing slowly
Kyiv • UNN
Russian troops seized about 14 square kilometers per day in September 2024, compared to 1265 square kilometers in March 2024. Russia's recent successes are tactically significant, but most of the front remains stagnant.
In recent weeks, the pace of the Russian offensive has increased. However, they remain slow and correspond to a positional war. This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.
Details
Analysts point out that Western publications comparing the pace of Russia's offensive in September 2024 with the offensive at the beginning of the war are misleading.
ISW estimates that in March 2024, the Russians advanced at the front at an average rate of 1,265 square kilometers per day. This is about 90 times more than the approximately 14 square kilometers per day that the institute estimates Russian troops were gaining in September 2024.
Thus, Russia's rapid advance deep into Ukrainian territory, including the temporary seizure of large parts of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions, characterized the first month of the full-scale Russian invasion. In turn, the later offensives of the occupiers were characterized by small-scale, localized and tactical offensives,
According to the report, Russian troops have recently made gains in eastern Ukraine, but comparing these "gains" to Russia's initial penetration of Ukraine at the beginning of the war is misleading about these recent successes.
In particular, as of October 1, 2024, the Russians captured the village of Vuhledar, continued to advance north and northwest of Vuhledar, and made significant tactical gains in the area of Selidovo (southeast of Pokrovsk) over the past week. While these gains are tactically significant, they do not reflect an overall increase in the pace of Russian offensives along the entire front line, most of which remains relatively stagnant. In addition, the latest achievements of the Russian Federation do not exceed the pace of the Russian offensive in the first phase of the war by two orders of magnitude.
The current pace of Russian offensives is more in line with ISW's recent assessment that Russian commanders have likely ordered their troops to significantly increase the pace of mechanized attacks across the theater before the muddy conditions of the fall months,
