ISW: Capturing Vuhledar will not give Russia much operational advantage
Kyiv • UNN
Russian troops have reached the outskirts of Vuhledar, but its capture is unlikely to give them much advantage for further operations in western Donetsk region. Vuhledar is not an important logistical hub.
The capture of Vuhledar, Donetsk region, by Russian troops is unlikely to give the enemy a special operational advantage for further offensive operations in the west of the region, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on September 24, UNN reports.
Russian troops have reached the outskirts of Vuhledar amid what appears to be intensified offensive operations in the area, but the capture of Vuhledar is unlikely to give Russian troops a special operational advantage for further offensive operations in western Donetsk region
According to ISW, geolocation footage published on September 24 shows that Russian troops have advanced into the eastern part of Vuhledar to Desantnykiv Street, 12. This confirms reports from Russian and Ukrainian sources. Russian troops reportedly entered the eastern part of the city between September 23 and 24.
Russian forces are also attempting to advance to the northeastern flank of the city through Vodyane and the southwestern flank through Prechystivka, presumably in an attempt to encircle the Ukrainian group in Vuhledar and force it to retreat.
Russian forces may be able to capture the entirety of Vuhledar, but how quickly or easily they can do so will likely depend in part on the decisions of the Ukrainian command. If the Ukrainian command decides that the risk of Russian forces surrounding Vuhledar or the cost of defending the town itself in urban combat is too great, Ukrainian forces may retreat, allowing Russian forces to capture Vuhledar relatively quickly and without engaging in close combat
However, if Ukrainian troops decide to defend Vuhledar, Russian troops may find it difficult to fight for the settlement, which Ukrainian forces have been fortifying for two years.
If the Russians do not occupy the settlement relatively quickly, the Russian maneuver along the flanks of Vuhledar may be negatively affected by the beginning of autumn rains, ISW pointed out.
However, Russia's potential capture of Vuhledar is unlikely to dramatically change the course of offensive operations in western Donetsk region. Vuhledar is not a particularly important logistical hub - Russian troops already control most of the main roads leading to Vuhledar.
A potential capture of Vuhledar would also not necessarily provide Russian forces with a favorable position to launch further offensives in other parts of western Donetsk region, ISW said. Vuhledar is 23 kilometers south of the H-15 highway, which runs from Donetsk city to the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border area, but the area between Vuhledar and the highway consists mostly of open fields that would require Russian forces to conduct successful mechanized assaults through areas that may soon become too muddy to make faster tactical gains.
Vuhledar is also approximately 30 kilometers south of the areas southeast of Pokrovsk currently favored by Russian forces, and Russian forces would have to maneuver over 30 kilometers of open terrain to substantially support an offensive southeast of Pokrovsk. ISW has previously assessed that the Russian offensive efforts near Vuhledar and Pokrovsk are complementary and intended to stretch Ukrainian forces along a broader front in Donetsk Oblast, but a hypothetical Russian capture of Vuhledar would not necessarily be operationally significant enough to stretch Ukrainian forces further in that area.
