Institute for the Study of War
russian troops intend to create a buffer zone along the border of Sumy region and possibly advance on Sumy. putin may use this to expand claims to Ukrainian territories.
In occupied Crimea, veterans of the Russian intelligence service have opened the "Griffin" club, where children will be taught military training. This is done to militarize young people and prepare a reserve for the army.
The Russian foundation "Assistance to Ours" facilitated the deportation of 39 children from the occupied Luhansk region to a sanatorium in the Moscow region. Since 2022, more than 1,200 Ukrainians, including children, have been deported to this institution.
Russia is using vague ceasefire terms to strike energy infrastructure with short-range weapons. Experts believe the shelling undermines confidence in achieving a full ceasefire.
Russia seeks to delay negotiations in order to occupy more Ukrainian territories. The Kremlin hopes that the West will force Kyiv to give Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to Russia.
U. S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said that sides are negotiating a partial ceasefire, including energy infrastructure, which could be implemented within a week.
Russian troops used blue identification marks to covertly attack Ukrainian positions. According to ISW, such actions may qualify as perfidy, which is a war crime.
According to ISW, Putin rejected the US and Ukrainian ceasefire proposal, insisting on demands tantamount to surrender. He seeks to hold the ceasefire proposal "hostage".
The President of Ukraine stated that the US proposal for a ceasefire has been on the table for a week, but Putin is ignoring it. Zelenskyy emphasized that every day of the war takes people's lives.
The Kremlin continues to demand that Ukraine give up the occupied territories. Putin will not abandon his ambitions, even after a ceasefire, ISW analysts believe.
The Institute for the Study of War stated that Putin is not considering a ceasefire and will try to delay negotiations. He seeks to position Russia and the United States as equals on the global stage.
Putin's visit to the Kursk region before the capture of Sudzha by Russian troops may indicate a desire to show strength against the background of the US and Ukraine's proposal for a ceasefire. He is trying to pass himself off as an active leader.
Russian troops are trying to dislodge the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Kursk region. The enemy is conducting dozens of assault operations in small groups.
The US and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, but Russian ultranationalists rejected the proposal. Russian state media is trying to show a moderate reaction for the domestic audience.
russian forces have captured several settlements near Sudzha, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat. Attacks on Sudzha and border areas of Sumy region continue.
Three countries are organizing naval exercises near the Iranian port of Chabahar. This demonstrates the deepening of Russia's relations with countries hostile to the US.
ISW: the cessation of intelligence sharing between the US and Ukraine will worsen the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defend and strike. European countries are trying to expand intelligence support for Ukraine after a pause from the US.
The only way to protect Ukraine from Russian ballistic missiles is the Patriot systems, the ammunition for which may run out. The US has suspended military aid, and other countries cannot produce these missiles.
The suspension of aid by the Trump administration will adversely affect Ukraine's ability to defend itself and conduct offensive operations at the current pace. At the same time, it will not completely destroy the front in the near future.
Russian troops have increased the number of drones in night attacks to 150-200 units and have changed their launch tactics from different directions. According to ISW, this is an attempt to exhaust Ukrainian air defense.
Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu meets with Chinese leaders to discuss bilateral security. Kursk region signs an agreement on economic and industrial cooperation with Pyongyang.
According to the ISW on March 1, the occupants made advances near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka and in the west of Zaporizhzhia region. The most active fighting continues in the Pokrovsk sector.
Russia is stepping up military cooperation with Iran and North Korea to support the war in Ukraine. The DPRK supplies ammunition and plans to transfer ballistic missiles, while Iran helps with the production of drones.
Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Nebenzya, declares Ukraine's “irretrievable loss” of the occupied territories and demands the transfer of additional regions. Russia also insists on Ukraine's neutral status without the right to join military alliances.
Peskov said that Russia has changed its approach to negotiations with Ukraine due to the alleged lack of sovereignty. the Kremlin also claims that any future agreements with Ukraine will be invalid.
Ukrainian troops liberated the village of Pishchane, 5 kilometers from Pokrovsk, and pushed Russian troops out of several settlements. The occupiers suffered significant losses and were forced to suspend their attempts to surround Pokrovsk.
Russian advance south of Pokrovsk has slowed over the past two weeks. ISW believes that the occupiers may reorient their offensive to Kostiantynivka in the spring or summer of 2025.
In 2024, Russia's defense spending reached $462 billion, exceeding the total military budget of European countries. russia allocated 6.68% of GDP to defense and plans to increase spending by another 14% in 2015.
ISW reports on Russian attempts to limit information about the front line in the Kursk region. This may be due to concerns about the exchange of territories during potential peace talks.
Russia sends experienced military personnel to North Korea under the pretext of medical treatment to exchange combat experience. The DPRK has refused financial compensation for medical care for Russian soldiers.