Russian command may change the priority of the offensive in the spring and summer of 2025 - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
Russian advance south of Pokrovsk has slowed over the past two weeks. ISW believes that the occupiers may reorient their offensive to Kostiantynivka in the spring or summer of 2025.
The Russian command may prioritize the offensive on Kostiantynivka in the spring and summer of 2025, which will slow down the occupiers' advance in the Pokrovske direction. This is stated in an analytical report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.
Details
ISW analysts noted that the advance of Russian troops south and southwest of Pokrovsk has slowed over the past two weeks amid signs that Russian military commanders may prioritize offensive operations against Kostiantynivka - the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in Donetsk region - in the spring and summer of 2025.
The Institute for the Study of War reports that in December 2024 and January 2025, Russian troops advanced rapidly to expand the Russian advance south and southwest of Pokrovsk, but that from early February 2025, the advance of Russian troops southwest of Pokrovsk slowed.
During the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the situation in the Pokrovsk sector had improved in recent days, and a spokesman for the Ukrainian brigade operating in the area said that Russian activity in the Pokrovsk area had become less intense in recent days.
Russian troops attempted to advance north of Kotlyne and west of Udachne, as they appeared to face more coherent Ukrainian defenses in these areas.
Ukrainian troops also conducted several counterattacks near Kotlyne and Pishchane (southeast of Kotlyne) aimed at threatening Russian positions in this area.
A Russian blogger expressed concern on February 15 that the slowdown in the Russian advance could allow Ukrainian forces to launch significant counterattacks in the coming weeks and enable them to break up the Russian advance south of Pokrovsk.
The advance of Russian troops south of Pokrovsk may slow down due to the deterioration of Russian forward units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area
According to ISW analysts , the Russian military command may also be prioritizing an offensive on Kostiantynivka in 2025, and therefore is reportedly not reinforcing the Russian grouping of forces south of Pokrovsk.
The capture of Pokrovsk was the main operational goal of the Russian military command in the Donetsk region since February 2024, and the Russian military command could have redeployed elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army to reinforce degraded Russian units in the Pokrovsk area if Russia intended to continue to prioritize this task in 2025
"The redeployment of significant Russian forces to the Kostiantynivka direction indicates that the Russian military command may have prioritized an offensive on Kostiantynivka for the spring and summer of 2025," the analysts added.
ISW's key findings for February 15:
- Zelenskiy warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to create conditions to present himself as a winner in talks with US President Donald Trump.
- Ukraine's American and European partners continue to work on the joint development of Ukraine's defense industry.
- Kremlin-controlled state media used an interview with Kremlin-linked former member of the Verkhovna Rada Viktor Medvedchuk to repeat the Kremlin's false narrative that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is illegitimate and that Russia has a long-standing goal of destroying the Ukrainian state.
- Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed over the past two weeks amid signs that Russian military commanders may prioritize offensives against Kostiantynivka, the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in Donetsk region, in the spring and summer of 2025.
- Russian advance south of Pokrovsk may slow down due to the deterioration of Russian forward units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area.
- Russian cargo ships continue to evacuate military assets from the port of Tartus while Russia negotiates with the interim government on its presence in Syria.
- Ukrainian troops advanced near Pokrovsk, while Russian troops advanced near Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka and in the Kursk region.
- The Russian occupation authorities continue to create regional analogues of the federal program “Time of Heroes,” which aims to appoint participants in the war in Ukraine to public office as part of the Kremlin's efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and militarize society and government.
Recall
Zelenskiy reported that some countries are ready to send military contingents to Ukraine as part of security guarantees. This could happen after the ceasefire, but no specific countries were mentioned.
