Meeting between US, Russia and China will not decide Ukraine’s fate, but it will create a dangerous precedent, a political scientist says

Only the Kremlin is interested in the likely trilateral talks between Russia, the United States, and China. In particular, it wants to raise the possibility of resolving Russia’s war against Ukraine without the participation of Kyiv and Europe. For the United States and China, other issues remain priorities. Oleksii Buriachenko, president of the International Institute for Security Studies, told UNN about this.

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The day before, according to The Wall Street Journal, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin proposed holding a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss a deal concerning Russia’s war against Ukraine.

According to the expert, the possibility of trilateral talks arose against the backdrop of preparations for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which is to be held in China this year. According to the political scientist, the location of the summit creates conditions for a potential meeting between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping, but does not mean that Russia’s war against Ukraine will become the main topic of the talks, because, in the expert’s assessment, the initiative to discuss it in this format is primarily beneficial to Moscow.

That is, the issue here is not that the three of them want to gather in order to resolve the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war. They are gathering in China and are very likely to meet, but not for that reason—it is not currently the main issue of the summit. We are talking about it now exclusively because the Russian side reported that Russia would propose discussing this issue in a trilateral format precisely at this summit

Oleksii Buriachenko emphasizes that China, for its part, has its own interests related to organizing an international summit and engaging in dialogue with the United States, because for Beijing such a meeting could serve as a way to demonstrate its diplomatic role on the international stage. At the same time, in the expert’s opinion, the main topics of the talks between the United States and China will concern security in the Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan, and nuclear deterrence.

"In other words, the United States is interested in ensuring that, for example, North Korea does not go beyond what is permitted. Because there are two countries in the region that are direct allies of the United States—Japan and South Korea. Accordingly, there are also the Philippines and Indonesia, which likewise have close ties with the Americans. And perhaps the most sensitive issue is Taiwan. This is the entire set of issues that Trump wanted to discuss with Xi Jinping at this summit," said the president of the International Institute for Security Studies.

Nuclear deterrence could become a separate area of potential dialogue. According to the political scientist, Washington is interested in involving China in arms control because its nuclear potential is growing, and such a format could encompass the three states with the largest nuclear arsenals.

"In other words, Trump proposed integrating China into the agreement that existed between the United States and Russia, as a country that is currently increasing its nuclear potential more dynamically than any other country in the world, including the United States and the Russian Federation. The United States needs to bring China into it so that monitoring mechanisms can also be extended to it. And when this agreement existed, China categorically refused any integration into this trilateral arrangement," Oleksii Buriachenko added.

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At the same time, Russia may use the very fact of a possible meeting to promote its own political narratives. The political scientist believes that it is important for Moscow to create the impression that the world’s leading powers are ready to discuss a new international order and Ukraine’s future without the participation of the Ukrainian side. In his view, even a symbolic public gesture could be enough for the Kremlin to later use it for propaganda purposes in Russia.

No decisions will be made there on matters related to the Russian-Ukrainian war. In my view, the central goal of the Muscovites and Putin here is that they have simply publicly stated that China, the United States and Russia are discussing ending the Russian-Ukrainian war without Ukraine and, accordingly, without Europe. In other words, this is intended to be a so-called expansion of the Overton window. And, so to speak, this is, in my view, a very dangerous argument against the position we have been advancing for many years: that there should be no negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine. Indeed, we managed to promote this position until the three most powerful nuclear states in the world today—the United States, Russia and China—began discussing it. Accordingly, Ukraine does not have many, so to speak, means of countering such an argument. Especially when, unfortunately, the European Union is also acting rather passively

The political scientist also explained separately that comparing the potential meeting with the 1945 Yalta Conference is primarily part of the Russian propaganda narrative. At that time, the leaders of the states that had won the Second World War discussed the postwar world order, and the results of the conference influenced the formation of the international security system. By contrast, according to the political scientist, the possible meeting of the three leaders today does not mean that they will negotiate a new division of the world.

In general, the Russian Federation deliberately made this part of its propaganda narrative. Frankly, the only thing it needs from this meeting is a photograph of the three of them leaning over a map of the world. Russia needs nothing else. Russian propaganda will figure out everything on its own. You understand, there is no talk there of a "Yalta 2" or anything else. It is simply a Russian invention—"stretching themselves onto the globe"

Despite this, the political scientist does not believe that the potential meeting itself will have direct political consequences for Ukraine. In his view, the main risk is that discussing the war without Kyiv may gradually come to be perceived as an entirely acceptable format of international politics. Therefore, it is important for Ukraine not only to declare that such negotiations are unacceptable, but also to seek partners who will support this position as well.

There are no possible consequences for Ukraine there. But it is simply a bad political signal. This is an expansion of the Overton window. Our voice sounds louder together with the Europeans, and that is what is happening now

Oleksii Buriachenko also points out that the interests of the United States, Russia and China do not coincide, and therefore, even if the meeting takes place, an agreement is not guaranteed.

Their interests are very different. But for the cameras, if this meeting does indeed take place, everything will be as positive as possible and presented in such a way that each side can describe the event however it wishes. There is no need to attach great importance to it—that is one thing. But in fact, of course, Ukraine must do everything possible and impossible to ensure that our position—that nothing should be discussed without Ukraine—is promoted as widely as possible, and that we seek partners for this