International Institute for Strategic Studies

The global legal framework for nuclear arms control could face obstacles in 2026. On February 5, the bilateral treaty between the US and Russia, New START, expires, and in April, the Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) will take place in New York.

US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announced in the Middle East that America's strategy of "regime change or nation-building" has ended under President Donald Trump. This highlights new US priorities in the region, focused on economic prosperity and stability.

Myanmar's junta army recaptured settlements previously taken by rebels in three weeks, thanks to China's assistance. This is due to the junta's intention to hold elections in December 2025.

In recent weeks, NATO countries have faced provocations from Russia: fighter jet flights and drones over strategic facilities. These are elements of hybrid warfare aimed at destabilizing and dividing partners.

European leaders, realizing critical gaps in defense capabilities, hope for Donald Trump to fulfill his proposal for security guarantees for Ukraine. Replacing US military capabilities will cost Europe $1 trillion.

The number of GPS interference incidents in the Baltic Sea has sharply increased, with jamming sources located in Russia. This poses a threat to civilian flights and international security.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's plane landed in Bulgaria using paper maps due to GPS deactivation. This occurred amid a growing number of GPS jamming incidents in Eastern Europe.

Russian drones are conducting reconnaissance over military aid transportation routes to Ukraine in eastern Germany. This is happening amid a broader campaign of Russian sabotage in Europe.

The Kremlin has significantly intensified hybrid attacks on the critical infrastructure of European countries. The number of incidents has quadrupled in 2024 compared to the previous year.

European leaders are considering the concept of "forces of assurance" as a central element of security guarantees for Ukraine. The US excludes the presence of its troops, leaving responsibility to Europe, but its support remains key.

The number of Russian hybrid attacks in Europe significantly decreased in 2025 compared to 2024. One of the reasons is the recruitment of incompetent perpetrators among petty criminals.

The Donald Trump administration eased sanctions against Russia, allowing related companies to transfer funds and critical components. This led to a decrease in the effectiveness of existing restrictions, allowing the import of computer chips and military equipment.

The European Union will not lower the price cap on Russian oil due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The proposal to lower the price from $60 to $45 per barrel has been postponed due to market instability.

As a result of the SBU operation "Spiderweb", Russia suffered significant losses of strategic aviation. It will take years to restore the fleet of bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

An IISS study showed that a US withdrawal from Europe would make NATO vulnerable to the Russian Federation. Replacing US equipment and personnel will cost about a trillion dollars over 25 years.

US support is important for EU sanctions against Russia. But Trump can change tactics at any moment, which will affect the European region and further relations with Russia.

In 2024, Russia's defense spending reached $462 billion, exceeding the total military budget of European countries. russia allocated 6.68% of GDP to defense and plans to increase spending by another 14% in 2015.

Satellite images revealed the expansion of the “February 11th factory” in the DPRK, where KN-23 missiles are produced. These missiles are used by Russian troops in Ukraine, although both countries deny the transfer of weapons.

IISS reports on a large-scale expansion of Russia's capacity to produce solid-fuel rocket engines at five sites. This could allow Russia to replenish its arsenal of missiles for war against Ukraine and threaten NATO.

Russia has launched a weapons program in China to develop and produce long-range attack drones for use in the war against Ukraine, Reuters reports, citing two European intelligence agency sources and documents.

Russia deploys additional troops and equipment to the Kursk region in response to the unexpected invasion of Ukrainian forces. Anti-terrorist measures are introduced in the border regions, including possible relocation of residents.

On the eve of the appearance of the first F-16 fighters, Ukraine is conducting an active campaign to eliminate the Russian air defense network in the occupied Crimea. Analysts say that the Ukrainians systematically make Crimea " unsuitable for the presence of Russian troops there.

A Russian plant in Tatarstan plans to produce 6,000 Iranian Shahed strike and reconnaissance drones annually, involving students from Africa in the production process.

During the two years of the full-scale war, the russian aircraft manufacturer Yakovlev imported about $420 million worth of its own products from foreign partners to be able to accelerate production of Su-30 fighters and other military aircraft.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, russia has lost about three thousand tanks since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but its stockpile of equipment is still sufficient for a long war.

Paris is preparing to host the 2024 Summer Olympics in less than 200 days. Organizers are seeking to keep the event focused on sport, while recognizing the tense geopolitical context, which is considered the most dangerous since the end of the Cold War.