"Doubts remain": Euractiv assessed how "forces of assurance" fit into security guarantees for Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
European leaders are considering the concept of "forces of assurance" as a central element of security guarantees for Ukraine. The US excludes the presence of its troops, leaving responsibility to Europe, but its support remains key.
Leaders are focusing on the concept of so-called "assurance forces" ("support forces"), which are to become a central element of security guarantees provided by Europe to post-war Ukraine, but the devil is in the details, and details are mostly lacking, Euractiv reports, writes UNN.
Details
US President Donald Trump's summit with European leaders on Monday sparked intense diplomatic activity regarding a proposal for security guarantees ahead of a trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine meeting potentially scheduled for the next two weeks.
The idea of "assurance forces" ("support forces") was first put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron in early 2024, which received support from his British counterpart Keir Starmer. This proposal envisioned fewer than 30,000 troops, with an emphasis on air and naval defense.
Such forces "would likely require tens of thousands of soldiers on the ground at any one time, representing a significant commitment that European states would struggle to sustain on their own," Natia Seskuria, a military science expert at the British think tank RUSI, told Euractiv.
And it is clear that the helm of any such initiative will be left to Europe and its "coalition of the willing," the publication notes.
Trump has already ruled out the possibility of American troops in Ukraine. Instead, he expects Europeans to land on the ground, and the US "will help them - presumably from the air."
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"A NATO-led or UN-led initiative also does not seem possible, as consensus on membership is unattainable for the former, and Russia's veto blocks the latter," the publication writes.
"Any steps that would be sufficient to reassure Ukraine would likely be seen as provocative and unacceptable to Russia," Mark Kancian of the American think tank CSIS explained to Euractiv.
No consensus on the required number
Since small ceasefire monitoring units are likely insufficient to repel renewed Russian aggression, more convincing would be the actions of European forces ensuring the security of demilitarized zones and the protection of critical infrastructure, Seskuria explained.
However, even a scenario of a relatively small brigade of about 10,000 soldiers could deter Russian forces merely by their presence, the British think tank IISS wrote in March.
A working paper by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs warns that such a "'bluff and pray' approach, which involves deploying too few troops and essentially relies on the hope that Russia will not test it, would be irresponsible and would increase the likelihood of war in Europe."
Taking as a model the US patrolling of the South Korean demilitarized zone with North Korea, monitoring the 2,300-kilometer border between Russia and Ukraine, or even just the 900-kilometer front line, would be a huge task, requiring 40,000 to 150,000 people, according to authors Claudia Morse and Arnold Klemann.
US remains key
Although Trump has ruled out the presence of American troops on the ground, US involvement and guarantees are still a key factor.
"The most likely arrangement would involve the deployment of support forces by a Coalition of the Willing, supplemented by continuous intelligence sharing, air support, and military assistance" from the US, Seskuria said.
For Philip Bednarczyk, director of the German Marshall Fund in Warsaw, it is clear that "the mandate for these forces will not just be a 'stretch,' but rather an additional and integrated part of Ukraine's defense." However, "assurance forces (support forces) are only as reliable as their underlying mandate and an overarching peace 'agreement,'" he pointed out.