The business activity expectations index in July 2025 decreased to 48. 3. This was influenced by infrastructure shelling and rising costs, but stable energy and demand are curbing the decline.
The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts GDP growth of 2. 1% in 2025, which is slower than last year. This is due to increased shelling, infrastructure losses, and negative migration trends.
The National Bank of Ukraine expects Ukrainian migrants to start gradually returning from 2027, but the speed of this process will depend on security risks. Until 2027, an outflow of migrants is predicted, and from 2027, a net return of about 100,000 people is expected.
The National Bank lowered the forecast for grain and leguminous crops to 57. 9 million tons, and oilseeds to 21.0 million tons in 2025. The reasons were unfavorable weather conditions, in particular spring frosts, and the slow expansion of sown areas.
The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts stable tariffs for electricity, gas, heating, and hot water until the end of 2025. A gradual adjustment of tariffs to economically justified levels is expected from 2026.
The supply of labor in Ukraine is growing faster than demand, but the shortage of personnel will persist. The National Bank predicts slower salary growth due to imbalances in the labor market.
The National Bank of Ukraine reports that food prices in Ukraine have converged with European ones, and some, like butter, have even exceeded them. This is due to internal and external factors, including high production costs and differences in VAT rates.
The National Bank of Ukraine expects a noticeable decrease in inflation by the end of the current year. Bringing it to the target of 5% is projected for 2027.
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official hryvnia exchange rate at 41. 7132 UAH/USD, strengthening it by five kopecks. Exchange rates for other currencies have also been updated, and banks and exchange offices offer their own rates.
From August 1, the full amount of penalties for violating the use of RRO/PRRO has been reinstated in Ukraine. An open banking system has also been launched, which will contribute to the development of fintech.
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official hryvnia exchange rate at UAH 41. 7662/USD, strengthening it by two kopecks. The euro exchange rate is UAH 48.14/EUR, and the zloty exchange rate is UAH 11.28/PLN.
Oleksandr Zyma, director of the NBU's legal department, against whom criminal proceedings have been initiated, received over one million hryvnias in salary for July. Zyma's total income last year amounted to over 8.5 million hryvnias.
The volume of cash transactions of banks increased by more than 9% in the first half of 2025, reaching UAH 1. 4 trillion. The increase in cash receipts is associated with economic activity, and the increase in cash withdrawals is associated with the risks of war and the formation of a cash reserve by the population.
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official hryvnia exchange rate at UAH 41. 7886/USD, strengthening it by one kopeck. The euro exchange rate is UAH 48.22/EUR, and the zloty is UAH 11.26/PLN.
The National Bank of Ukraine is considering the possibility of gradually withdrawing 10-kopeck coins from cash circulation, starting from October 1, 2025. This will allow reducing the costs of their production and circulation, as these coins have lost a significant role in settlements.
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official hryvnia exchange rate at UAH 41. 7997/USD, which means a one-kopeck devaluation. The official euro exchange rate is UAH 48.69/EUR, and the zloty exchange rate is UAH 11.43/PLN.
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official hryvnia exchange rate at UAH 41. 7824/USD, which means a devaluation of one kopeck. The euro exchange rate is UAH 48.98/EUR, and the zloty is UAH 11.51/PLN.
In June 2025, the Pension Fund of Ukraine recorded a record increase in the average salary for calculating pensions to 22,336 UAH. This is the largest monthly increase recently, which will affect future pension accruals.
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official hryvnia exchange rate at UAH 41. 77/USD, which means a devaluation of 1 kopeck. The euro exchange rate was fixed at UAH 49.10/EUR.
Deputy Head of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaichuk forecasts Ukraine's economic growth at 3-3. 5% of GDP in 2026-2027, provided the security situation improves. The forecasts are based on private investment, consumption, reduced defense spending, and accelerated economic recovery.
The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts the receipt of approximately $54 billion in international aid in 2025, of which almost $24 billion has already been received. This support will allow financing the budget deficit without emission and maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market.
The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts receiving $35 billion in international financial support in 2026. Of this amount, $25 billion has already been confirmed, while the remainder requires additional negotiations.
The National Bank of Ukraine worsened its inflation forecast to 9. 7% in 2025. Economic recovery will be slower, with GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025.
The NBU stated that the weakening of the hryvnia against the euro had a negligible pro-inflationary effect, while fluctuations against the US dollar were moderate. The situation on the foreign exchange market remains stable thanks to previous NBU measures.
The National Bank of Ukraine decided to leave the discount rate unchanged. It will remain at the current level of 15.5%.
The National Bank of Ukraine has updated official exchange rates. The dollar remained at UAH 41.76, while the euro gained 12 kopecks, reaching UAH 48.98.
Oleksandr Zyma, the chief lawyer of the NBU and a figure in a criminal proceeding, sent a letter with a "recommendation" to withdraw the lawsuits of Concord Bank against the National Bank, which led to the shareholders losing their right to a fair trial. This situation creates reputational risks for the NBU, and law enforcement officers have not yet served Zyma with a notice of suspicion.
For the first time in a year, Ukrainian banks expect an improvement in loan quality, forecasting an increase in demand for loans for businesses and individuals, including mortgages. Lending standards are easing, and the approval rate for applications is growing.
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official hryvnia exchange rate at UAH 41. 76/USD, strengthening it by 0.05 kopecks. The euro exchange rate is UAH 48.86/EUR.
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official hryvnia exchange rate at UAH 41. 8194/USD, which means a devaluation of 6 kopecks. The euro exchange rate is UAH 48.79/EUR, and the zloty is UAH 11.49/PLN.
