Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine
The state-owned Russian VTB Bank initiated the bankruptcy of the "First Oil" group due to a debt of $78. 3 million. The assets of the company, which produces up to 500,000 tons of oil per year, will come under the control of state structures.
Russia's economy entered 2026 with very low indicators, including a record regional budget deficit of 1. 538 trillion rubles. Pressure on small businesses will increase, and regions will be left alone with debts.
In the Russian Federation, where internet censorship and surveillance of the opposition already prevail, the innovations are becoming another element of totalitarian control.
Russia has classified key economic data, concealing the real level of poverty and the state of the economy. 168 tables were removed from statistical compilations, and 115 indicators stopped being updated in the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS).
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reports that the Kremlin uses passportization as a lever of influence in the occupied regions of Georgia. Support depends on the loyalty of local elites.
Georgia's "friendliness" rating towards Russia increased from 15 to 19. 4 points over the year, according to a study by a Russian institute. The country is now in the category of "Relatively friendly/unfriendly communication regimes."
According to foreign intelligence, the Kremlin plans to create an interdepartmental group to promote "traditional values" in the Russian information space. This includes banning films that discredit these values and introducing new subjects in schools.
Overdue mortgage debts of Russian citizens reached 276 billion rubles by the end of 2025, increasing by 76. 6% over the year. The total volume of non-performing loans of individuals in the Russian banking system amounts to 2.3 trillion rubles.
The number of patents in Russia has shrunk to a minimum in over two decades, and real innovations have virtually disappeared. Russia invests more in purchasing foreign technologies than in developing its own science.
The Russian economy is experiencing its deepest crisis in 20 years, which may force the Kremlin to reconsider its economic policy. By the end of 2025, a sharp slowdown in industrial growth and a record budget deficit were recorded.
Norwegian special services have published a security assessment for 2026, in which Russia is named the main threat. The likelihood of sabotage against support for Ukraine and the intensification of Russian intelligence activities is increasing.
India plans to invest up to $100 billion in domestic exploration and increase refining capacity to 6 million barrels per day by 2030. This aims to reduce dependence on imports, which currently cover 85-88% of domestic oil consumption.
Internal assessments by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development indicate the continued critical dependence of the economy on imports of high-tech products. This casts doubt on the realism of Russia's plans to achieve technological independence by 2030.
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Chinese investments in Russia since 2022 do not exceed $17. 4 billion. Chinese investors avoid investing in sectors that could fall under secondary sanctions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appointed Oleh Luhovskyi as acting head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. Luhovskyi has served as First Deputy Head of the SZR since October 2024.
The demographic situation in Russia is deteriorating, creating risks for the economy and stability. By 2040, the country could become a "society of elderly people," where the median resident will be a woman aged 50-55.
The sale of LUKOIL International GmbH for $22 billion and the loss of Gazprom Germania by Gazprom indicate the degradation of Russia's international business. Sberbank and VTB also lost their European assets.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has approved a new structure for Ukraine's defense plan. The Cabinet of Ministers has been instructed to develop a defense plan with the participation of the SBU, Foreign Intelligence Service, and the NBU.
The Kremlin continues to use prisoners as a resource in the war, and the State Duma has rejected eight amnesty projects. The only path to freedom for Russians is participation in the war, which leads to an increase in crime.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine states that inflation in Russia is artificial and controlled to fill the budget and finance the war. The price increase is explained by the increase in VAT and tariffs, which is passed on to consumers.
Russia is tightening control over internal political processes in Belarus through the Union State, aiming to minimize the risks of regime change. Economic cooperation is taking on a military character, integrating Belarusian enterprises into Russia's military production.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported a new information attack by the Kremlin, aimed at intimidating Western countries with widely publicized samples of new weapons. Naryshkin's statements about successful missile tests are part of a disinformation strategy.
Financial analysts predict the closure of up to 30% of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia due to VAT increases and restrictions on access to the simplified tax system. This is a consequence of the budget crisis caused by the war.
President Zelenskyy called for the creation of a strong intelligence unit for foreign operations. He emphasized the importance of combat and asymmetric operations to protect Ukraine's interests.
Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba announced that 100 million tons of grain have been transported via the Ukrainian sea corridor. In total, 168.9 million tons of cargo have been moved through this route since September 2023.
Russian airlines plan to bring mothballed aircraft over 30 years old back into service. This is a forced step due to the reduction of the aircraft fleet and the lack of updates under sanctions.
Housing prices in Russia have risen by 8-14% over the year, making it unaffordable for many citizens. In 2026, an average Russian will need 60 to 86 monthly salaries to buy an apartment.
Russia exported over 2 million tons of grain from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine in 2025, passing it off as its own product. To do this, captured ports and a "ship-to-ship" scheme were used to circumvent sanctions.
Russia plans to launch a large-scale geological exploration program in Donetsk region in 2026. It is designed to run until 2031 and involves the exploration of deposits of strategic and rare metals.
The Ministry of Justice of Ukraine seized 25% of the shares of the "Kryukiv Railway Car Building Works" into state revenue. The High Anti-Corruption Court satisfied the claim against Stanislav Hamzalov, owner of Russian enterprises that supplied goods for the Russian military-industrial complex.