The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported an increase in recessionary trends in the Russian economy, with a noticeable deterioration in the manufacturing industry. In the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease in production volumes was recorded in 70% of the main types of economic activity.
In October, 15. 97 million tons of oil were exported from Russian ports by 140 tankers, 84 of which belong to the "shadow fleet". The main destinations for supplies were India, China, and Turkey.
According to the intelligence report, for the first time since the beginning of the war, a noticeable decrease in Russian oil production and refining has been recorded. By the end of the year, Russia will lose at least $37 billion in budget oil and gas revenues.
The planned increase in VAT in Russia to 22% from 2026 will not provide the expected revenues, but on the contrary, will lead to a decrease in revenues by 6. 1 billion US dollars. This will increase inflationary pressure, reduce domestic demand, and increase the cost of government borrowing.
The President of Ukraine dismissed Serhiy Demediuk and Andriy Kononenko from their positions as Deputy Secretaries of the National Security and Defense Council. Demediuk had held the position since October 2019, and Kononenko since April 2024.
This indicates a sharp decline in scientific literacy and a rise in belief in pseudoscience, noted the Ukrainian foreign intelligence.
The Russian authorities are preparing the population for a sharp deterioration in living standards due to a record budget deficit, which will reach 5. 74 trillion rubles in 2025. The Kremlin plans to raise taxes, cut social programs, and shift responsibility for unpopular decisions to governors and senators.
38. 9% of enterprises reported payment delays, 34% recorded a decrease in demand, and 32.4% experienced a shortage of working capital.
Firewood prices have almost doubled, queues have stretched for months, and local authorities are only promising symbolic compensation.
Russia is experiencing a growing shortage of primary care doctors, ambulance personnel, and mid-level medical staff. Trade unions report widespread overwork and low wages, leading to high staff turnover.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported that Russia is concealing the real scale of forest fires that are destroying hectares of forest. In the first six months of 2025, fire covered about 9.5 million hectares of forest, while only 2.7 million hectares were officially recognized.
The Russian economy is entering a phase where official statistics no longer conceal the scale of problems, losing its ability to generate profits in traditionally strong sectors. The net profit of enterprises for the first eight months of 2025 decreased by 8.3%, and the share of problem borrowers among legal entities reached 23%.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved the main directions of further sanctions work against Russia after a meeting with the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the SBU, and the Foreign Intelligence Service. He instructed to rectify the absence of sanctions against Russian enterprises involved in weapons production and to work more actively with international partners to synchronize sanctions.
Head of the SBU Vasyl Maliuk reported that one of the three "Oreshnik" was destroyed by the forces of the HUR, SBU, and SZRU. The destruction took place at "Kapustyn Yar."
The Russian authorities plan to create a so-called register of "white hackers" under the control of the FSB and with mandatory state registration.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported that Russian authorities are directing funds from local budgets to reward recruiters, cutting funding for social programs. This leads to cuts in spending on medicine, education, and housing programs in the regions.
The company offers experienced workers "part-time work": for 32 hours - about 16 thousand rubles, for 40 - up to 32 thousand. However, only "selected" ones receive money.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed Law No. 4648-IX on increasing state budget expenditures for national security and defense by UAH 324.7 billion. The funds will be directed to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, weapons procurement, the National Guard, the State Special Communications Service, and other law enforcement agencies.
On October 21, the Verkhovna Rada will begin considering amendments to the draft law on the State Budget-2026, and on October 22, it is expected to adopt it as a basis. General fund revenues are projected at UAH 2.8 trillion, with a priority on defense and security.
The number of multi-center clinical trials in the Russian Federation has decreased 20-fold since 2021, cutting off Russians from innovative drugs. This applies to drugs for HIV, oncology, and other diseases, as Moscow does not recognize the results of international research without local participation.
The Russian authorities are canceling benefits for the IT industry, increasing insurance premiums and reinstating VAT on registered software. This decision caused a negative reaction from businesses, collapsing the industry index MOEXIT and forecasting a drop in company profits.
The average earnings of convicts in Russia increased to 33,000 rubles in 2025, which is 125% more than in 2019. At the same time, in 73 regions, teachers receive less than the minimum wage of 22,440 rubles.
The Budget Committee recommended the draft law on Budget-2026 for the first reading. The committee proposes that the government make changes in the areas of defense, education, healthcare, local budgets, social sphere, and business support.
Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported that Russia risks losing control over 40% of its territory due to the increasing influence of China and North Korea in the Far East. Moscow is paying off its allies in the war against Ukraine with territories, lacking the resources to develop the Far Eastern Federal District.
President Zelenskyy received a report from the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleh Ivashchenko. It discusses the effectiveness of sanctions against the Russian Federation and Russia's plans regarding Belarus.
Russia's largest agricultural machinery manufacturer, Rostselmash, has been operating only three days a week since August due to falling sales. The company has cut production and abandoned investment projects, making it the worst year in a decade.
Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reports that by 2030, Russia will lose hundreds of aircraft due to sanctions that make maintenance impossible. 109 foreign and 230 Soviet aircraft, as well as more than 200 helicopters, will be removed from the carriers' fleet.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reports that the Russian economy will face a prolonged slowdown, with GDP growth remaining at 0. 8-1% until 2028. This effectively means a recession due to high inflation, despite the Kremlin's statements about a "soft landing."
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy heard a report from the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleh Ivashchenko, on countering Russia's "shadow fleet" and changes in Russia's disinformation tactics. Specific tasks regarding sanctions against Russia and blocking schemes to circumvent them were also discussed.
Contaminated drinking water in the Russian Federation caused 11,000 deaths and 1. 4 million illnesses last year. An increase in water pollution statistics was recorded in the Volga and Ob rivers.
