Russia near NATO borders – Baltic countries actively warn of possible aggression
Kyiv • UNN
Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas stated that the Kremlin may consider the Baltic countries and Poland as the next target for escalation. Experts consider Estonia the most vulnerable due to military resources and geography.
Against the backdrop of Russia's failures in the war against Ukraine and increasingly frequent statements by Western politicians about possible Kremlin provocations against NATO countries, the security of the Baltic region has once again come into focus. Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas stated that the Kremlin may view the Baltic countries and Poland as the next target for escalation. Whether Russia is truly capable of opening another front, why Estonia may be the most vulnerable, and how the war in Ukraine affects this — analyzed by UNN.
After the war against Ukraine did not bring Russia the expected quick victory, NATO countries are increasingly talking about the risks of new escalation. Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas stated that the Kremlin needs a new "victory," and currently sees the Baltic countries and Poland as the most likely targets.
His words came after a statement by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, who confirmed information from Western media that Russia may be preparing provocations against Poland or the Baltic countries to test NATO unity. According to Nausėda, the relevant assessments are based on intelligence data and concern possible attacks on critical infrastructure using both military and hybrid methods.
Earlier, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski also warned that Russia could resort to a "false flag" operation using Ukrainian drones. Against this backdrop, Lithuania has already strengthened the protection of bridges, electrical substations, gas facilities, and transport infrastructure.
Estonia may be the most vulnerable
Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko, in a comment to UNN, noted that if the situation is assessed purely from a military point of view, the most logical direction for a potential Russian operation would be Estonia.
"If we analyze purely the military component, it would be much more logical for Russia to act against Estonia or Latvia. Lithuania is less convenient due to the Belarusian factor, because a large-scale transfer of troops through the territory of Belarus would be very difficult to conceal. In contrast, in the Leningrad and Pskov regions, Russia can accumulate forces quite discreetly. There is an opportunity to deploy two combined arms armies, which are quite sufficient to start an offensive operation. In addition, theoretically, Russia could attempt an amphibious landing on the northern coast of Estonia to facilitate advancement towards Narva, and then towards Tallinn," the expert explained.
According to him, Russia's main advantage could be the time factor.
Are the Baltic countries capable of withstanding a strike on their own
According to Kovalenko's assessments, Estonia alone does not have sufficient military resources for a long-term deterrence of a large-scale invasion.
"To be honest, Estonia has virtually no chance on its own. It is a small country — roughly the size of two average Ukrainian regions in terms of territory, and its population is even smaller than that of the Kharkiv region. Accordingly, the size of its army is significantly smaller. If Russia launches an offensive, it will use not only a classic mechanized operation with tanks, artillery, and aviation, but also all the experience from the war against Ukraine — FPV drones, massive use of unmanned aerial vehicles, guided aerial bombs, ballistic and cruise missiles," he noted.
According to the expert, the problem of air defense system operation will become particularly acute.
"Is Tallinn ready to repel a simultaneous raid of hundreds of attack drones? In my opinion, no. In such a situation, the country would very quickly face a large-scale humanitarian crisis. A mass evacuation of the civilian population to Latvia would begin. But there are few logistical routes, and it is precisely along these that Russia could strike with drones and other means of destruction. This would create logistical collapse, complicate troop movement, and effectively open the way for the Russians to encircle Tallinn. By the time NATO fully deploys its forces, Russian troops could already be near the capital of Estonia. Then the issue would shift to the realm of urban combat," Kovalenko emphasized.
What forces do the Baltic countries possess
Although Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have significantly increased their military budgets and arms purchases in recent years, their capabilities still lag substantially behind Russia's potential.
According to open data:
– Estonia has about 7-8 thousand regular military personnel and over 40 thousand reservists;
– Latvia has approximately 8 thousand servicemen and about 18 thousand National Guard fighters;
– Lithuania has over 20 thousand military personnel and over 30 thousand trained reserves.
In total, the three countries can mobilize over 100 thousand people, but the main problem lies not in numbers, but in the lack of sufficient heavy equipment, air defense systems, and attack aviation. That is why the Baltic defense strategy is entirely built on the rapid intervention of NATO allies.
An attack on the Baltics would mean war with NATO
International expert Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi emphasized in a comment to UNN that a possible Russian attack on the Baltics would have significance far beyond the region.
"If Russia dared to attack the Baltic countries, it would confirm that Ukraine was right when it spoke about the threat of Russian expansion. For Putin, the goal is not limited to Ukraine – it is about an attempt to restore influence over the territory of the former Soviet Union," he told UNN.
At the same time, the expert warns that such a development would also have negative consequences for Ukraine.
"In the event of an attack on one of the NATO countries, a significant portion of the Alliance's resources could be directed specifically to its defense. This means that certain resources currently used to support Ukraine could be redistributed," Zhelikhovskyi explained.
Can Russia fight on two fronts at once
Political scientist Oleh Lisnyi does not rule out that a possible large-scale mobilization in Russia could be intended not only for the war against Ukraine.
"Hypothetically, it is possible, because the Russians themselves are now actively promoting the topic of a possible attack on the Baltic countries. They may try not to take resources from the Ukrainian front, but to conduct some short 'victorious war' with new forces. But I think it is unlikely to be easy for them," he noted.
The key question is NATO's reaction
In the event of an attack on a Baltic country, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for collective defense, should be automatically invoked. However, the speed of implementation of this mechanism will depend on the political will of member states and the efficiency of troop deployment.
Experts cite the political situation in the United States as an additional factor of uncertainty. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO allies for insufficient defense spending and questioned the unconditionality of US security guarantees for individual members of the Alliance. At the same time, the US has not officially renounced its obligations under Article 5, and American troops continue to be a key component of NATO deterrence in Europe.
Is war guaranteed?
So far, none of the European intelligence agencies have declared the inevitability of a Russian invasion of the Baltic countries in the near future. At the same time, an increasing number of Western politicians and military officials acknowledge: the risk of provocations, sabotage, or local escalation from the Kremlin is growing.
The main question in such a scenario will be not so much the ability of Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania to independently withstand a strike, but rather the speed and decisiveness of the entire NATO response. This, according to most experts, may determine whether the Kremlin dares to test the Alliance's strength.