Axios: Trump approaches a decisive point in the war with Iran
Kyiv • UNN
The US and Israel are considering two options: a 10-day ceasefire to open the Strait of Hormuz or a joint military campaign. Trump has not yet made a decision but is preparing for escalation.
U.S. President Donald Trump is approaching a decisive point in the war with Iran, and American and Israeli officials foresee only two viable endgame scenarios, Axios reports, writes UNN.
Details
According to the publication, these are:
- option 1: reach a new 10-day ceasefire aimed at restoring the operation of the Strait of Hormuz;
- option 2: launch a large-scale joint military campaign with Israel to force Tehran to capitulate.
"Trump has not yet made a decision. But officials believe the next few days will determine which path prevails — and there will be virtually no room left for a protracted, unresolved conflict that paralyzes the Persian Gulf," the publication states.
Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and other regional mediators have presented the U.S. and Iran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, two regional sources directly familiar with the efforts told Axios.
The Trump administration is studying the proposal and has urged Israel to avoid steps that could close the diplomatic window, U.S. officials said.
But Washington is simultaneously preparing for the failure of negotiations. In recent days, the U.S. military has sent dozens of fighter jets and refueling aircraft to the region, assembling the forces necessary for a major escalation.
Israeli sources said the Israel Defense Forces are on high alert and preparing for a possible expansion of the war into a full-scale, coordinated campaign within days.
Ten consecutive nights of U.S. bombing have failed to break Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, further drawing Trump into a war he has repeatedly declared won.
At least three U.S. service members have been killed as a result of renewed hostilities. Trump said Monday he ordered the Pentagon to make Iran pay "many times over" for every American death.
The price of oil briefly crossed the $90 per barrel mark, as Iran expanded its strikes on commercial vessels and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Gasoline prices in the U.S., it is noted, are rising again, fueling domestic backlash against an already unpopular war.
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Regional mediators are again seeking to break the cycle of retaliatory strikes, which with each new strike become more deadly, costly, and harder to contain.
The new ceasefire proposal, it is stated, would halt hostilities, reopen both shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, and give Washington and Tehran room to salvage their crumbling memorandum of understanding.
"We told the U.S. and Iran that we are offering a cooling-off period," one of the regional sources said.
Neither Trump nor Iran have accepted the proposal, and both sides appear determined to strengthen their leverage through further strikes before committing to a ceasefire, the publication writes.
Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, opening another front against the energy infrastructure and shipping lanes of the Persian Gulf.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Israel will respond to any Iranian attack with massive strikes, raising the risk of a wider war stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and Israel.
Regional sources said mediators are trying to build on a proposal discussed by Oman, Iran, and Qatar in Muscat, Oman on July 11, when the U.S. demanded that Tehran publicly commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
Those talks ended without an agreement, and Iran soon after attacked commercial vessels in the strait, triggering U.S. bombing that has continued nightly ever since.
The proposal envisions the full reopening of both shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz: the southern route through Omani waters, free from Iranian attacks, and the northern route through Iranian waters, free from blockade.
During the 10-day ceasefire, the US and Iran will negotiate a long-term agreement regulating passage through the strait, the publication indicates.
One option would allow Iran to charge a "reasonable service fee" for maritime security, environmental protection and other services, a regional source reports.
The source pointed to the Malacca Strait, where Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore charge vessels for certain services rather than a general transit fee, as a possible model.
Another idea is to channel the fee into a joint fund managed with the participation of the International Maritime Organization.
A regional source said ceasefire efforts were gaining momentum on Saturday before an Iranian missile strike on Jordan killed at least two US service members and forced Washington to back off.
A senior US official confirmed that negotiations are ongoing but said Trump has not yet finalized retaliatory actions.
"The president is focused on making Iran pay for violating the Memorandum of Understanding and continuing acts of terrorism in the Strait of Hormuz," the official told Axios.
"In addition, the president will make Iran pay for the recent deaths of American soldiers. These devastating strikes will continue until the president decides otherwise," he added.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed on Monday that mediators are working to prevent further escalation.
"Proposals conveyed through mediators have been received by us, but at this stage I prefer not to discuss their details," Baghaei said at a briefing for the Iranian press. He added that the Iranian armed forces will continue to "respond with force and destroy the source of US aggression."
It is unclear whether Trump is fully informed about the ceasefire framework — or whether he will agree to another temporary ceasefire without a clear path to a lasting settlement.
The US president, the publication writes, has expressed deep frustration with Tehran since the collapse of the ceasefire agreement, calling Iranian leaders "sick people" and dismissing further negotiations as "a waste of time."
A regional source said the White House may continue bombing Iran for several more days in retaliation for the deaths of US service members in Jordan before seriously considering the proposal.
"We are trying to work out a sustainable solution," one of the regional sources said. "The Iranians cannot dictate terms, but they cannot be ignored either."