Putin's war with NATO to cost the world $1.5 trillion - Bloomberg
Kyiv • UNN
According to Bloomberg Economics, a full-scale Russian war against Europe could reduce global GDP by $1.5 trillion. Russia is actively increasing arms production, and the Baltic states are considered a potential target for aggression.
According to economic models by Bloomberg Economics, in the event of a full-scale war between Russia and Europe, global GDP could shrink by up to $1.5 trillion. This was reported by Bloomberg, writes UNN.
Details
It is noted that Russia is actively increasing the production of artillery shells, drones, and missiles. Production volumes will soon exceed demand, even considering the Ukrainian front.
Additional alarm was caused by the joint actions of the US and Israel against Iran - an ally of Moscow. Putin appears more confident and ready to assert expanded ambitions.
Before the start of the summit in The Hague, Donald Trump is expected to reaffirm his commitment to Article 5 - "collective defense" of allies. However, Europe is concerned about changes in his position: at the G7, the US president directly questioned Russia's absence from the group.
European leaders doubt the effectiveness of American guarantees. A war scenario could test the reaction not only of the US but of all NATO countries.
Main goal - Baltic states
At the forefront of risk are the small but strategically important Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Significant Russian-speaking communities reside in their territories, and borders with Russia and Belarus are open.
According to estimates by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Russia could attempt aggression here within the next five years. This forces countries to take emergency measures.
One alarming scenario: a Russian train is stopped in the Baltic territory, then under the guise of protecting Russians, troops are introduced. This could be followed by a blockade of the Baltics, seizure of islands, and blockade of the Suwalki Corridor.
NATO will apply Article 5, but the war will begin instantly and will be hybrid, with strikes on infrastructure, communication systems, and even underwater cables.
Economic consequences
Bloomberg Economics estimates direct losses in the first 12 months: a 1.3-1.5% reduction in global GDP, amounting to approximately $1.5 trillion. This is almost comparable to the consequences of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Industry and trade in the Baltics could shrink by 43%, the EU would lose about 1.2% of GDP, Russia - only 1%. Countries like the US and China would also feel the negative impact: financial markets would fall, energy prices would rise, and credit would become more expensive.
NATO's military plans are growing: it is now planned to spend at least 3.5% of GDP on defense - plus another 1.5% on infrastructure, civil defense, and cybersecurity.
The Baltics are reviewing bans on anti-personnel mines, acquiring new air defense systems, and strengthening ground forces. Joint battalions and bases along the Russian border are being discussed.
Despite the threats, some European leaders hope for a peaceful settlement. A consensus between the US, EU, and China's participation as a mediator is necessary. A possible scenario: Ukraine becomes an EU member, and sanctions against Russia are partially lifted.
Bloomberg estimates that this would bring global GDP growth: 0.5% for the EU and Russia, and 0.3% globally. But Europe is not yet ready to restore former ties with Moscow.
Meanwhile, Moscow is strengthening its military positions: modernizing the nuclear base in Kaliningrad, building infrastructure along the northwestern border, and increasing its potential.
The US and Europe, realizing the threat, are building up their defenses. Ukraine receives support, sanctions are being tightened, and NATO's eastern flank is preparing for the worst-case scenarios.
The publication notes that Europe stands at the threshold of a new stage - active defense and diplomatic clarity are needed. War can start suddenly, but there is still a chance to prevent it.
