It won't be a turning point: political scientist named possible scenarios for Trump-Putin meeting
Kyiv • UNN
Political scientist Oleh Lisnyi believes that the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska will not be a turning point, but only the beginning of a process. He proposes a trilateral or quadrilateral negotiation format with the participation of Ukraine and Europe.
The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in Alaska will not be a turning point. It will be the beginning of a process in which Putin will be directly involved. This opinion was expressed to a journalist from UNN by political scientist Oleh Lisnyi.
Scenarios for Trump's meeting with Putin
Lisnyi believes that the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska will not be a turning point.
I think the scenario is the following and it is practically the only one. I do not believe that this meeting will be historical and a turning point. I believe that this will be the beginning of a process in which Putin will be directly involved. Therefore, I believe that this is precisely the beginning of the process. Previously, Putin was involved in telephone mode, and here we find ourselves in a situation where Putin will be forced to participate in subsequent rounds. He will not be able to wriggle out of it like he did in Istanbul, when Zelenskyy came, and he sent his minions
Therefore, according to the political scientist, this is not a bad story for Ukraine.
"Since we have worked through this moment. They have not been talking about Ukraine without Ukraine for a long time and should not start doing so," Lisnyi noted.
The political scientist believes that after the meeting in Alaska, the ideal scenario for the development of events would be a trilateral or quadrilateral meeting.
"Therefore, the next format, ideally, in my opinion, is either in a three-way mode: Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin. Or in a format that I like more and is more productive - that is, Trump, Zelenskyy, Putin, and a representative of Europe," Lisnyi said.
According to him, President Zelenskyy worked very fruitfully on this option, as he called and visited many leaders on the eve of the Trump-Putin meeting.
"It was clear that Europe also does not want this issue to be resolved without it," the political scientist added.
Lisnyi also commented on the chances of Putin agreeing to a meeting with Zelenskyy in a quadrilateral format with the participation of a representative from Europe.
"This is a question with an asterisk, because Putin clearly demonstrates that he does not want to communicate and sign an agreement with anyone except Trump. Therefore, we will have to accustom Trump to the fact that Europe must be present. And he must force Putin into such a format. Whether he can do it quickly, I doubt. Therefore, a lot of time will be spent precisely on the next round. The option that there will be success, Trump will call Zelenskyy and he will fly to Alaska and everything will be signed there, is unlikely," Lisnyi said.
According to the political scientist, the most beneficial option for Ukraine is the implementation of the next round of negotiations in a trilateral or quadrilateral format.
"If we take our interests, what is beneficial for us and can end with a concrete result, then it is the format of three or four. Everything else will again be a delay of sanctions, it will be about Putin, but not about us. Therefore, we must enter into these scenarios. I will not say that they will be very easy. They will be very difficult at the organizational level, especially in a quadrilateral format," Lisnyi said.
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Putin and territorial claims
Lisnyi also commented on the scenario in which Putin would demand Ukraine's renunciation of its territories for an agreement.
"Zelenskyy, in communication with journalists, admitted this topic, that Ukraine could be pressured. But as for Putin's proposal and Trump's agreement, I very much doubt it. Because then it turns out that Trump did not pressure Putin, but Putin pressured Trump and he is the winner. Trump cannot allow himself to do this. The final word must be his," Lisnyi said.
The political scientist shared another scenario, but categorized it as fantasy.
"If Putin demands (that Ukraine cede territories - ed.), then it will be bullying and this could provoke a harsh action from Trump, he could resort to sanctions. That is, Trump proposes something, Putin rejects it and continues to push his line about territories, maps, etc. This option is also not bad for us, because then Trump will resort to harsh actions," the political scientist said.
He noted that for Ukraine, this is a perfect storm that ended in the economic collapse of the Russian Federation in the long run.
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What is known about the meeting in Alaska
US President Donald Trump and Kremlin head Vladimir Putin will hold a meeting on August 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Trump's meeting with Putin at the White House is a clarification of positions, not a concession. He emphasized that the US president wants to have all the facts and look Putin in the eye.
Kremlin advisor Dmitry Suslov explained what Putin expects from the summit in Alaska. This includes the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas, a refusal to join NATO, the demilitarization of Ukraine, and constitutional reform regarding a federal structure.
In return, Russia, according to him, will agree to a truce and withdraw its occupiers from Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions. At the same time, the front line in other areas will not change.
The US President noted that the meeting in Alaska will be a stage in preparing a second meeting with Zelenskyy's participation. Trump emphasized that it would include "mutual concessions" on border and land issues, but did not provide details.
Marco Rubio stated that a comprehensive solution to ending the war in Ukraine would take longer than today's meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha emphasized that Russia must say a clear "yes" to a truce in the air, on land, and at sea, which would open the way for further peace negotiations to bring about a just peace for Ukraine.
Russian dictator's spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that Trump and Putin do not plan to sign any documents following the talks in Alaska.