How the US-Iran deal could affect the war in Ukraine - expert explains risks and opportunities
Kyiv • UNN
A peace agreement between Washington and Tehran could return the West's attention to Ukraine. The expert warns of the risks of pressure on Kyiv regarding negotiations with the RF.
The signing of an agreement between the US and Iran could not only change the situation in the Middle East but also influence the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war. A reduction in regional tension could return the attention of Washington and European allies to Ukraine; however, at the same time, there are risks of increased pressure on Kyiv regarding negotiations with Russia. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive comment to UNN by international affairs expert and candidate of political sciences Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.
What the agreement will mean for the parties to the conflict
The results of the war between Iran, the US, and Israel can only be assessed after the final signing of the agreements and their content become known, the expert believes.
Everything will depend on whether the agreement is actually signed and, most importantly, on what terms. We see that the interests of Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran do not coincide. Therefore, it is unlikely that the final version will be able to fully satisfy all parties
According to him, for US President Donald Trump, the key task is to demonstrate his own effectiveness and achieve a diplomatic result.
For Trump, it is now important to show that he was able to end another international conflict, unblock the Strait of Hormuz, and stabilize the situation in the Middle East. This is a matter not only of foreign policy but also of his domestic political standing
At the same time, for Israel, the main issue remains the Iranian nuclear program.
"For Israel, it is fundamentally important to ensure that Iran finally renounces the possibility of creating nuclear weapons. This has remained one of the main challenges for Israeli security for decades. But there are no guarantees that Tehran will agree to the complete elimination of its nuclear developments or that it will fulfill such obligations unconditionally," the interlocutor said.
In his conviction, even if Iran formally agrees to certain restrictions, it does not mean the final termination of the program.
Iran already possesses the necessary technologies, specialists, and developments. Under more favorable conditions, it could potentially resume processes related to uranium enrichment or the development of its nuclear program. That is why Israel treats any compromises with great caution
Did the US leave Israel without support
In the expert's opinion, saying that Washington "abandoned" its ally would be an exaggeration; however, the interests of the parties today clearly differ.
I would say that the US is making decisions without fully considering Israel's interests. And even American officials admit this. We have already heard statements about the existence of differences between Washington and Jerusalem regarding the vision for ending the conflict
According to Zhelikhovsky, the Trump administration is currently focusing more on its own political goals.
Trump seeks to obtain a quick foreign policy result ahead of the US midterm congressional elections. It is important for him to demonstrate to American voters that he is capable of ending wars and resolving international crises. That is why he may agree even to a compromise version of the agreement that does not fully correspond to Israel's interests
He added that the American president is also interested in stabilizing energy prices.
For the White House, it is important to prevent a sharp increase in fuel costs within the country. Therefore, ending the conflict in the Middle East also has a significant economic dimension for Trump
How the end of the conflict will affect Ukraine
In the expert's opinion, for Ukraine, a potential de-escalation in the Middle East could have both positive consequences and certain risks.
The positive scenario is that the US and European allies will be able to devote more attention to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Over recent months, a significant portion of diplomatic and military-political resources has been focused specifically on the Middle East
Furthermore, Washington may try to use the possible success of negotiations with Iran as a model for the negotiation process regarding Ukraine.
The White House's logic could be quite simple: if they managed to bring Iran to the negotiating table, why not try to do the same with Russia. But here a risk arises that conditions might be imposed on Ukraine that do not correspond to its national interests
According to him, Kyiv has already encountered similar approaches.
We have already gone through attempts to impose unacceptable conditions for ending the war on Ukraine. Therefore, it is very important that international partners do not pressure Kyiv to agree to concessions that contradict Ukrainian interests
He emphasized that Ukraine must use the possible return of Western attention to strengthen its own positions.
For us, it is fundamentally important to receive additional military support, enhance defense capabilities, and strengthen our positions before any potential negotiations. Only a strong Ukraine can count on fair peace terms
Why the fall in oil prices is important for Ukraine
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky drew attention to the economic factor.
If the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, it could lead to a decrease in the price of oil and other energy resources. For Russia, this is a negative scenario, as its budget largely depends on energy exports
At the same time, the expert believes that the impact on Europe's energy policy is even more important.
Before the escalation around Iran, the European Union was actively moving toward a complete rejection of Russian energy resources. But due to risks to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, calls began to emerge in some countries not to rush such a decision
According to him, the continuation of the conflict could have played into the Kremlin's hands.
If tension in the Middle East persisted, Russia would have gained additional opportunities to sell its energy resources to Europe. This would mean new revenues that could ultimately be used to finance the war against Ukraine
That is why the de-escalation of the situation in the region, in his opinion, opens an opportunity for Europe to continue its course toward energy independence from Russia.
It would be logical and consistent for European countries to continue reducing their dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. This would correspond to both their own security interests and the interests of Ukraine