A month of strikes could leave three of Ukraine’s megacities without electricity, water, and heat: NYT reveals Russia’s plans
Kyiv • UNN
According to the NYT, Russia could launch 70 missiles, 720 drones, and 150 aerial bombs at Ukraine over the course of a month. Three cities are reportedly being identified as targets.
Russia plans to launch approximately 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones and 150 guided aerial bombs at Ukraine within 30 calendar days, in order to cause the collapse of electricity, heating and water supply systems in Ukraine. UNN reports this, citing an article by The New York Times.
Details
The enemy's main targets could be Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa.
The publication's journalists analyzed data from Ukraine's Air Force and concluded that the indicated number of ballistic missiles and drones approximately corresponds to the average monthly number of such weapons that penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. Therefore, the NYT is convinced that Russia may attempt to inflict critical damage on Ukraine's energy system within one month—damage it failed to achieve during the previous four winters.
Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are under the greatest threat
If Russia's scenario is implemented, the three largest cities identified as the main targets could face a large-scale disruption of municipal infrastructure. According to the enemy's plan, analyzed by the publication's editorial team, Russia seeks to reduce electricity supplies to Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa by 90%, and heating supplies by up to 90%. Missile and drone attacks could also cause serious disruptions to water supplies and sewerage systems.
Such a development would trigger a large-scale humanitarian crisis, especially in conditions of low temperatures, when the stable operation of power grids, boiler houses and pumping stations is critically important for ensuring the functioning of cities.
Why Russia's plan to black out three Ukrainian megacities could become reality
According to the publication, Ukrainian officials and analysts fear that Russia currently has significantly greater capabilities to carry out a large-scale air campaign against Ukraine's energy sector than in the previous years of the full-scale invasion. The reasons cited include the depletion of Ukrainian air defenses, a reduction in American military aid, and Russia's expansion of missile and drone production.
In addition, after several years of systematic Russian shelling, Ukraine's energy infrastructure remains vulnerable. Because of accumulated damage, even one successful strike may have consequences that previously required the enemy to carry out several attacks to achieve.
The shortage of interceptor missiles for American Patriot surface-to-air missile systems also "plays into the hands" of the Russian Armed Forces. These systems are among the most effective means of protection against Russian ballistic missiles, which pose a particular danger to critical infrastructure facilities.
In addition, the situation is complicated by the continuous improvement of Russian weaponry. Over the years of the war, Moscow has increased the number of missiles and drones in its arsenal and improved the effectiveness of their use. And Ukraine's "mirror" strikes on Russian energy facilities, including oil refineries, cannot inflict damage on Russia's economy on the same scale as the damage Russian attacks cause to Ukrainian infrastructure, officials and experts interviewed by the publication note.
What is known about Russia's plan to destroy the energy system
Earlier, The New York Times reported on a document that the Ukrainian side presented to European partners as an intercepted Russian plan for a large-scale campaign against Ukraine's energy system. According to the journalists, the plan envisages phased strikes on energy facilities, including electrical substations and hydroelectric power plants, with the aim of disrupting the operation of the entire energy system.
A separate threat is the possible disconnection from the power grid of three Ukrainian nuclear power plants that remain under Ukraine's control.
But it should be noted that the NYT editorial team emphasized that it was unable to independently verify the authenticity of the document. It is also currently unknown whether Russia will implement the described scenario and how successful such a campaign could prove to be.
We remind you
On October 14, Russian forces launched another massive attack on Ukraine, damaging dozens of energy facilities in Kyiv and Kharkiv. At least 600,000 people were left without electricity. Russian strikes also affected railway infrastructure in several regions of Ukraine.