The Serbian oil refinery NIS, owned by Russia and under US sanctions, will start operating on January 17 or 18. This became possible after receiving a temporary license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury Department.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has cost Russian taxpayers approximately $550 billion, which is equivalent to 24 annual Russian higher education budgets. A significant portion of these expenditures is hidden, and the financing of the war is shifted to the population through new taxes and rising prices.
Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe in 2025 decreased by 44% to 18 billion cubic meters, which is the lowest figure since the mid-1970s. This happened after the closure of the Ukrainian route and the cessation of fossil fuel imports from Russia.
The Serbian government has supported negotiations between NIS's Russian owners and Hungarian MOL regarding the sale of a controlling stake. The aim of the deal is to remove the country's largest energy company from under US sanctions.
Russian natural gas exports to China via pipeline are expected to grow by a quarter this year, reaching 38. 6-38.7 billion cubic meters. However, this will not compensate for the drop in revenues from the loss of the European gas market.
An Austrian court has definitively blocked the US request for the extradition of Dmytro Firtash, concluding over a decade of legal hearings. The Higher Regional Court of Vienna confirmed that the lower court's decision is final, as prosecutors failed to meet the deadline for filing an appeal.
The Russian Federation is urgently intensifying its work in the Transnistrian region of Moldova, strengthening mobilization measures and UAV production. This is aimed at destabilizing the situation and creating tension on the border with Ukraine.
A Russian LNG plant on the Baltic Sea coast has delivered gas to China for the first time since the introduction of US sanctions. The vessel Valera arrived at the Beihai import terminal, indicating strengthening energy cooperation between the countries.
The profits of the Russian oil giant Rosneft collapsed by almost 70% due to sanctions. The CPD reports a crisis in Russia's energy sector.
Russia and China held consultations on missile defense and strategic stability, agreeing to strengthen cooperation. This comes amid concerns about US plans to create a new missile defense system and resume nuclear testing.
Russia's metallurgical industry is declining due to export restrictions, a high key rate, and competition from Chinese manufacturers. This economic cooling is forcing major players to curtail investment programs.
Russian "Gazprom" is developing detailed design documentation for the "Power of Siberia-2" gas pipeline to China, which will transport 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The cost of design work can reach 5-10% of the total budget, which is estimated at more than 30 billion dollars.
Russia and Turkey are discussing maintaining Gazprom's annual gas supply volume at around 22 billion cubic meters as part of the extension of two major contracts. This comes amid US pressure to limit energy purchases that finance Russia's war.
The Russian economy is entering a phase where official statistics no longer conceal the scale of problems, losing its ability to generate profits in traditionally strong sectors. The net profit of enterprises for the first eight months of 2025 decreased by 8.3%, and the share of problem borrowers among legal entities reached 23%.
Lithuania and Russia are negotiating the extension of the gas transit agreement to the Kaliningrad region, which expires in December 2025. Lithuania receives approximately 12 million euros in revenue annually for gas transit.
Russian seaborne oil product exports fell to 1. 89 million barrels per day, the lowest level in three years. The reason was disruptions at refineries, sanctions, and Ukrainian drone strikes.
The US expects Serbia to persuade Gazprom to sell its stake in NIS or gain control of the refinery through nationalization.
For the first time in three years, the Russian military-industrial complex has ceased to be an economic driver, according to the National Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation. Disinformation. Production of tanks, armored vehicles, and metal products fell by 6-20% in September, and budget revenues dropped by 21%.
The Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation urges citizens to buy federal loan bonds and gold to "patch up" the budget deficit. This will allow the Kremlin to continue financing the war, shifting the burden onto the population.
A Ukrainian drone attack on the Orenburg gas processing plant forced Kazakhstan to cut production at the Karachaganak field by 25-30%. The plant stopped receiving gas from Kazakhstan, leading to a reduction in production to 25,000–28,000 metric tons per day.
Gazprom's Orenburg gas processing plant stopped receiving gas from Kazakhstan after a drone attack on the night of October 19, 2025, which caused a fire. The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan confirmed the emergency situation and the cessation of raw gas reception from the Karachaganak field.
This happened due to a drop in export revenues, sanctions and limited access to capital, as well as an increase in debt servicing costs.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic expressed disappointment with Russia's decision to offer a gas deal only until the end of the year, although Serbia sought a three-year contract. Vucic rejected suggestions of nationalizing NIS, controlled by Russia's Gazprom Neft, to circumvent US sanctions.
Serbian oil company NIS, partly owned by Russia, failed to obtain another waiver from US sanctions. This jeopardizes fuel procurement for the country's only oil refinery.
Chinese banks and investors are refusing to cooperate with Russian companies such as Rosatom and Gazprom due to fears of secondary sanctions. Russia's plans to raise financing on the Chinese bond market have proven futile.
A fire broke out at the Novo-Yaroslavsky Refinery in Yaroslavl, the largest oil refining enterprise in the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation. Yaroslavl Oblast Governor Mikhail Yevrayev stated that the fire was of a man-made nature, and no drone attacks were recorded.
Volodymyr Z. was detained in Poland on a European arrest warrant issued by Germany on suspicion of involvement in the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosion. German intelligence services believe that he, as a diving instructor, planted explosives on the pipeline in the Baltic Sea in September 2022.
The United States of America has postponed the introduction of sanctions against the Serbian oil company NIS for only four days; they will come into force on October 1. Sanctions against NIS have been postponed six times, as the Serbian authorities negotiated with both Russian and American sides.
Local residents of Bashkortostan report loud noises, indicating a probable repeat attack on the petrochemical complex "Gazprom neftekhim Salavat". This enterprise, part of PJSC "Gazprom", was already attacked by drones on September 18.
Serbia plans to sign a three-year agreement with Russia for the import of 2. 5 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually. The country already receives gas from Azerbaijan and Russia, and also has significant reserves in its gas storage facility.
