Pakistan and Afghanistan on the brink of open war - what this means for Ukraine

Pakistan's Minister of Defense, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, confirmed the transition of the conflict with Afghanistan into a phase of full-scale armed confrontation. The statement came after night clashes and airstrikes that resulted in significant casualties. UNN is investigating what consequences this will have for the rest of the world, particularly for Ukraine.

Details

After a series of airstrikes and loud statements about an "open war," tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have escalated to their sharpest phase in recent years. Formally, it's about fighting militants, but at the heart of the conflict are old territorial disputes, the problem of cross-border radicalism, and a crisis of trust between neighbors. For Ukraine, this is another signal of growing global instability, where local conflicts quickly acquire international significance.

How the conflict escalated into a hot phase

Pakistan confirmed airstrikes on targets in Kabul and the border provinces of Paktia and Kandahar. Islamabad stated that the operations were aimed at militants carrying out attacks on Pakistani territory. The Afghan side accuses its neighbor of violating sovereignty and causing civilian deaths.

The escalation was the culmination of several months of mutual accusations. Pakistan insists that the Afghan authorities, formed by the Taliban movement, are not curbing the activities of the TTP group, which carries out terrorist attacks within the country. Kabul denies responsibility for the actions of militants or states that it does not control all radical structures.

Old border - new conflicts

One of the key reasons for the tension remains the disputed border, known as the Durand Line. Its history dates back to colonial times, and the question of the border's legitimacy has repeatedly been a source of disputes. Tribal communities with close social ties live on both sides, complicating control over the territory.

For Pakistan, control over border areas is a matter of national security. For Afghanistan, it is also a symbolic issue of sovereignty. As a result, any incident quickly takes on a political coloring.

Taliban after returning to power

After 2021, when the Taliban regained control over Afghanistan, the regional balance changed. Previously, Pakistan was considered an influential player in Afghan affairs. However, the new government in Kabul demonstrates greater independence.

Islamabad expected Kabul to more actively fight Pakistani militants. Instead, according to the Pakistani side, the TTP group gained more space for activity. This became the basis for forceful responses in the form of airstrikes.

Nuclear factor: is there a risk of global escalation

Pakistan has been a nuclear power since the late nineties and possesses a significant arsenal. However, its strategic doctrine is primarily aimed at deterring India, not at conflict with Afghanistan. The current confrontation is characterized by a medium-intensity border escalation.

The probability of using nuclear weapons in this conflict is extremely low. At the same time, the very fact of a nuclear state's involvement increases the level of international attention and tension.

Regional consequences

Afghanistan is already in a difficult economic and humanitarian situation. A new wave of hostilities could exacerbate the crisis, cause internal displacement of the population, and new refugee flows. For Pakistan, escalation also carries risks given internal economic problems and political instability.

In addition, a prolonged confrontation could create additional space for radical groups that use border areas as a zone for regrouping and preparing attacks.

What this means for Ukraine - more and more conflicts as an element of a big game

For Ukraine, it is important to understand that the global security architecture increasingly resembles a system of interconnected crises. Even if the confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan has local causes, it takes place in a broader context of competition between the USA, China, and Iran.

Every new conflict in regions where great powers intersect can be used as an instrument of deterrence, pressure, or redistribution of influence. In this logic, wars cease to be merely regional - they become elements of a global chessboard.

For Kyiv, this means several things. Firstly, international attention and partner resources are distributed among several crises simultaneously. Secondly, the general trend towards forceful methods of resolving disputes is intensifying. Thirdly, great powers are increasingly actively using regional conflicts as an instrument of geopolitical competition.

In such an environment, Ukraine has to operate in conditions of multi-vector turbulence, where every new escalation - even thousands of kilometers away - can affect the global agenda. And if events in Afghanistan truly turn out to be part of a broader strategy of major players, this will be another confirmation that modern wars are increasingly not just local conflicts, but elements of a big game.

Will this escalate into a full-scale war

The most likely scenario is the continuation of limited operations and periodic strikes without transitioning to a major war. Neither side shows readiness for a large-scale campaign. The Afghan authorities are focused on internal stability, and Pakistan is unlikely to be interested in a protracted conflict.

However, the risk of uncontrolled escalation remains, especially if attacks on Pakistani territory continue. In such a case, the response may become increasingly harsh, creating new spirals of tension.

In conclusion, the current crisis is a consequence of long-standing contradictions, security challenges, and the changing balance of power after 2021. It is unlikely to escalate into a large-scale war, but it once again demonstrates how fragile the international security system remains - and how quickly local conflicts can affect the global agenda, which Ukraine is also a part of.

Recall

Pakistani border guards and Afghan Taliban engaged in a battle with heavy weapons - it lasted more than two hours. Both sides report significant losses and the capture of border posts.