Strikes on three combined heat and power plants did not cause a total blackout in Kyiv: what to expect in winter
Kyiv • UNN
An expert explained why the attacks did not leave Kyiv without electricity and what determines the duration of repairs. Disruptions to heating are possible in winter.
Russian forces are attempting to damage Kyiv’s energy infrastructure, including combined heat and power plants and substations that ensure the transmission of electricity. Energy expert Mykhailo Honchar told a UNN journalist more about how critical the damage to all three of the capital’s CHP plants is and whether prolonged outages should already be expected.
Why Kyiv was not left without electricity after the strikes on the CHP plants
According to the expert, Russia is attempting to carry out comprehensive strikes on energy facilities, seeking to disrupt the city’s electricity and heat supplies simultaneously. However, he notes that the enemy has not carried out such attacks for the first time; in particular, attempts to destroy the energy system began as early as 2022.
In such massive combined attacks, the calculation is always that “that’s it—now we’ll strike once and for all,” but that is not how it turns out. Of course, we have more damage, but the situation here depends on how quickly our repair crews respond
In addition, Mykhailo Honchar emphasizes that the mere fact of a strike on one energy facility does not automatically mean that the entire city will be de-energized. The consequences depend on the facility that was hit and the nature of the damage. Kyiv is the largest electricity consumer in Ukraine.
Kyiv has an energy deficit in terms of the generation available within the city. The issue of the energy deficit was finally resolved with the commissioning, at the end of 2015, of the 750 kV Rivne Nuclear Power Plant–Kyivska substation transmission line. Together with the power flow from the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, this made it possible to balance the needs of Ukraine’s largest electricity consumer—Kyiv and the Kyiv metropolitan area
In addition, according to the expert, Russian attacks are aimed not only at the city’s combined heat and power plants, but also at Ukrenergo substations through which electricity flows from nuclear power plants toward the capital; damage to such facilities complicates the supply of electricity and forces energy workers to change its transmission schemes. At the same time, the extensive structure of the energy system makes it possible to create alternative routes, although this does not rule out disruptions in the operation of the grid.
The enemy’s main efforts are aimed not only at striking Kyiv’s CHP plants. This is specifically intended to make it impossible to generate heat for city residents. Other strikes target substations that carry power from nuclear power plants toward Kyiv. These strikes have periodically been effective, but as we can see, although the situation is problematic, they have not achieved the expected result—namely, leaving Kyiv in darkness
Why restoring electricity and heat supplies may take different amounts of time
Mykhailo Honchar explained that the duration of repairs after shelling depends on exactly what equipment was damaged and whether a replacement is available. The availability of backup equipment and the security conditions under which repair crews can begin work are also important.
It varies greatly. It depends on what you have to replace. Figuratively speaking, it is one thing when you need to replace severed wires—this can be done quickly; but if, for example, a transformer has been hit, then it takes a long time. It also depends on whether backup equipment is available and where it is located. So it is impossible to say exactly how long it will take. Each case is separate
Moreover, Russian forces may carry out repeated strikes on the same facilities, forcing repair crews to take additional risks into account.
Before repair crews begin repair work, the State Emergency Service must inspect the area to determine whether any dangerous objects remain in the affected zone. In addition, we see that they have already done this many times: a subsequent strike follows the first impact. Therefore, unlike before—even last year—when repairs began immediately after the impact and the fire was extinguished, if there was one, the process is now being slowed down for security reasons
Also, due to the specific features of the city’s power grid, the consequences of attacks may differ even in neighboring districts of the city, Mykhailo Honchar noted. He explained that this is related to the configuration of the distribution network, its technical condition, and the ability to redistribute the load. This leads to the uneven application of outage schedules.
The networks are operating in an abnormal mode. Therefore, one district may be without electricity for half a day or even a full day, while somewhere else things may be more or less normal — the power was switched off for several hours, and that’s it. There is no malicious intent here whatsoever. You never know what will be hit and where, how long restoration will take, or how to set up a bypass route if the direct one is not functioning
Does Kyiv face a prolonged lack of heat in winter?
Strikes on all three of the city’s main combined heat and power plants pose risks to getting through the heating season, since the primary purpose of these facilities is heat production. At the same time, damage to them does not mean that all residents of the capital will necessarily be left without heating. According to the expert, the city has boiler houses to which consumers can be reconnected if necessary, although the feasibility of such a solution depends on the specific district and the condition of the infrastructure.
A combined heat and power plant, that is, a cogeneration plant, has the primary task of generating heat. Electricity is produced in parallel, and that is task number two. The enemy’s main efforts are aimed at making heat generation impossible. Heat and heating are not yet needed now, so the enemy is working with the winter outlook in mind
In addition, the expert recalled that in winter, after the combined heat and power plants were hit, some districts of Kyiv also experienced heating problems, but in some cases heat supply was restored by reconnecting buildings to boiler houses. According to him, this shows that even significant damage does not always mean that restoring heat by the next heating season is impossible.
Let’s recall how we dealt with the situation in January–February this year, when they also hit all these combined heat and power plants and there was no heat supply. Yes, entire districts of the capital were left without heat. I remember someone writing in a closed chat: "That’s it, we probably won’t be able to repair anything, even by the start of the next heating season." But imagine our surprise when heat supply was restored literally in just under three weeks. It turned out that they had reconnected them to a boiler house
However, Mykhailo Honchar believes that residents of the capital should nevertheless prepare for possible disruptions, but should not draw conclusions about an inevitable large-scale blackout after every enemy attack.
Hoping for the best, we need to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. I think that, with the experience of the past four winters, our people are more prepared than usual. At the same time, when you look out at night and see that the lights have gone out somewhere in the building opposite, and someone immediately writes falsely on a Telegram channel that Kyiv is experiencing a blackout, this is stoking passions and operating as the enemy’s useful idiot
Thus, strikes on Kyiv’s combined heat and power plants and substations may complicate the operation of the energy system and cause localized disruptions to electricity and heat supplies. At the same time, the further development of the situation will depend on the extent of the damage, security conditions, and the speed of repairs. The expert urges people to prepare for possible difficulties, while assessing the situation based on verified information.