"Steel Porcupine": Politico learns about Ukraine's "Plan B" for post-war defense if security guarantees prove futile

Ukraine fears it cannot rely on security guarantees from its allies in any potential peace deal, so it must be prepared to stand alone as a "steel porcupine" to ensure that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not return for a new attack, and "Ukraine's plan B is to rely on itself," Politico reports, writes UNN.

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last year called on Kyiv to turn the country "into a steel porcupine, indigestible for current and future aggressors."

This means a permanent massive army, significant investment in the latest drone and missile technologies, and domestic arms production.

"Ukraine has undergone a fundamental rethinking of what security guarantees mean and what they should be based on," said Alona Hetmanchuk, head of Ukraine's mission to NATO, in an interview. "Previously, the vision focused mainly on protection commitments made by partners. However, today there is a clear understanding that the basis of any security guarantees must be Ukraine's army and its defense industry."

But for this, Ukraine, the publication writes, "needs to create a sustainable defense sector, reform its procurement systems, update its recruitment system, continue to improve drone technology, create long-range missiles, equip its armed forces with modern tanks, artillery and aircraft (Kyiv has outlined an agreement to purchase up to 150 Swedish-made Saab JAS-39E Gripen fighters) and receive billions in aid to build an army that Russia will be afraid to attack again."

Ukraine's future security "is, first of all, the sustainability of production," said Ihor Fedirko, executive director of the Ukrainian Association of Arms Manufacturers. "Not individual weapon systems and not one-time technological breakthroughs, but the ability of the defense industry to work over time, under pressure, with a predictable volume of production," he pointed out.

Security guarantees are necessary, against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump ruling out Ukraine's desired option of an invitation to join NATO, which protects its members with Article 5 on collective defense, the publication writes.

"In addition to strong Armed Forces, Ukraine needs reliable security guarantees," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in Kyiv on Tuesday.

"But without NATO, Ukraine has to rely on individual agreements that may not carry the same weight as alliance commitments. Kyiv is wary of such agreements, having been burned by promises made by the US and UK when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 – promises that proved empty," the publication says.

"Some European allies have announced that they will deploy troops to Ukraine once an agreement is reached. Troops on the ground, planes in the air, ships in the Black Sea. The United States will be the backstop," Rutte said, adding that the security promises were "solid."

But Russia is already signaling that it will oppose any security guarantees for Ukraine, the publication notes, citing the words of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

"Ukraine's main fears concern the reliability of Trump's promises, due to his sharp policy changes – from wanting to annex Greenland to doubting the value of NATO allies and establishing warm ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin," the publication says.

"Will Trump start a war with Russia over Ukraine? Absolutely not. Will Trump impose sanctions on Russia for violating any ceasefire? Very unlikely," wrote Timothy Ash, an analyst who studies Russia and Ukraine.

Given that any security guarantees look shaky, Ukraine's plan B is to rely on itself

"The longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians are convinced that they must rely primarily on themselves," Hetmanchuk said. "This reflects both disappointment with previous security commitments made to Ukraine and skepticism about the prospects of NATO membership, as well as growing confidence in Ukraine's own ability to resist the enemy."

To be continued...