Is NATO possible without the US, and what role will Ukraine play in such a scenario?
Kyiv • UNN
Europeans are concerned about their own security due to Donald Trump's policies, which sparks discussions about NATO's future and the US role. Experts believe that NATO will survive, but the US role may diminish, and Ukraine will not join the Alliance in the next three years.
Recently, Europeans have become increasingly concerned about their own security amidst the policies of US President Donald Trump. Discussions are ongoing in Europe regarding the creation of its own alliance or a change in the policy of the existing NATO.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Europe needs to find a way to become a dominant force again to establish itself in a new world order defined by only a few powerful players.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas commented on the possibility of creating a European army, noting that parallel structures "would simply blur the picture."
Every European country has an army, and the armies of 23 countries are also part of NATO structures. Therefore, I cannot imagine that countries would create a separate European army
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke about the need to rethink NATO, downplaying fears of the alliance being undermined by the Trump administration. He emphasized a long-standing complaint about allies' insufficient contributions to defense spending.
Against the backdrop of White House rhetoric, Europe has begun to consider the existence of NATO without the US, as reported by Financial Times.
Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder emphasizes that the current crisis is the deepest in the Alliance's history. It signals the end of a period when Europe's security was considered an organic and integral part of the United States' national interests.
The shift in emphasis in American policy is forcing European capitals to rapidly review their own approaches to security and seek new models that will not be entirely dependent on Washington's military support.
International expert, PhD in Political Science Stanislav Zhelikhovsky notes that the current discussions in Europe regarding NATO's future under conditions of a diminished US role have real grounds.
The discussion continues, and it is worth understanding that now, during Donald Trump's second term, transatlantic unity has undergone some erosion. We observe many disagreements between a NATO member like the US and European partners - and not only European ones, Canada should also be mentioned
According to him, individual crises in relations between Washington and Europe have catalyzed doubts about the reliability of American commitments within the Alliance.
Recent situations, particularly the escalation of the crisis around Greenland, clearly demonstrated the crisis in relations between America and Europe. This indicates that it is far from certain that the US will fully fulfill its obligations as it should
The North Atlantic Alliance will remain, but in a changed configuration
According to the expert, the question is not about NATO's disappearance, but about the changing role of the United States within it.
If we talk about whether the North Atlantic Alliance will exist, I think it will exist. But the role of the US may decrease. The only question is what configuration the cooperation between the US and NATO will take - whether it will be reduced or reconfigured
At the same time, in his assessment, the Alliance currently continues to function as usual, although risks remain.
"So far, everything is functioning as before, but obvious risks are always present, especially in the current conditions."
Safeguards against US withdrawal from NATO already exist
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky emphasizes that a US withdrawal from NATO is unlikely not only politically but also legally.
"I do not assume that the US will withdraw from NATO. I want to remind you that at the end of 2023, both chambers of the US Congress adopted a decision prohibiting the president from announcing a US withdrawal from the Alliance without the consent of the legislative body."
According to him, this decision was adopted as a safeguard precisely against drastic steps by Donald Trump.
This mechanism was created intentionally - taking into account the possible return to power of such specific politicians as Donald Trump
Europe strengthens itself, but does not create an alternative to NATO
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky notes that strengthening the European Union's defense capabilities does not mean creating an alternative to NATO.
He recalls initiatives to reform the EU's security policy and at the same time draws attention to NATO's leadership position.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Europe's defense system should be based on the principles of the Alliance, and not on the creation of a separate EU military structure
NATO without the US does not mean automatic membership for Ukraine
Answering the question about Ukraine's prospects in NATO in case of a diminished US role, the expert expresses himself quite cautiously.
I hardly see the US leaving the Alliance. The United States will still remain a NATO member and influence its decisions, because the principle of consensus of all member countries applies there
According to him, the key barrier for Ukraine remains the position of the Donald Trump administration.
"The Donald Trump administration is a priori against NATO expansion. And even if initiatives regarding Ukraine appear in the Alliance, America will most likely be against it."
Even in Europe, there is no full consensus on Ukraine
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky notes that skepticism about Ukraine's NATO membership exists not only in the US.
Europe is also not homogeneous. There are countries that do not support Ukraine's accession to the Alliance
He considers another path for Ukraine's integration more realistic.
I assume that Ukraine can join the pan-European security architecture in the post-war period, already as a member state of the European Union
Ukraine will definitely not be in NATO for the next three years
The expert directly assesses the time prospects of Ukraine's membership in the Alliance.
"I do not see Ukraine in NATO for the next three years - even if hostilities cease."
He adds that much will depend on the outcome of the war and possible agreements with Russia.
We do not know what exactly will be signed with Russia. The draft peace plans state that Ukraine should not join NATO
Time is playing against Trump
In conclusion, Stanislav Zhelikhovsky emphasizes: the time factor remains key. Donald Trump will definitely leave office, and the position of the new President may change.
According to him, in the longer term, the US position may change.
It is possible that the new American administration will have completely different approaches. But even then, the process of Ukraine's accession to NATO will be complex and lengthy