US partially lifts oil sanctions on Russia - how dangerous is it for Ukraine and what should it do?

US President announced the lifting of restrictions to lower fuel prices. Trump also announced the imminent end of the war against Iran in the near future.

A partial easing of oil trade-related sanctions could help stabilize the global energy market amid the war in the Middle East. However, even such temporary solutions provide Russia with additional financial resources that can be used in the war against Ukraine. Viktor Halchynskyi, former spokesman for NJSC "Naftogaz of Ukraine" in Lviv region, financier, told UNN about this in a comment.

Partial lifting of sanctions - market logic

According to the expert, the easing of restrictions on oil trade is partly explained by the situation on the world market. Due to the war in the Middle East, risks for oil transportation through the Persian Gulf, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the key routes for global energy supplies, have sharply increased.

Halchynskyi explains that against this background, the demand for oil from other regions, which does not depend on the route through the Persian Gulf, is growing.

If we talk about sanctions issues, then on the one hand, this is a logical step. The demand for oil that is not in the Persian Gulf and does not pass through it is growing. We see that even Donald Trump's statements, quite emotional, influenced the market and lowered the price of oil.

The expert added that one of the factors for the decision could also be the need to ensure stable supplies for large consumers, particularly India.

The partial lifting of sanctions, particularly for Indian suppliers, can satisfy the large demand that this country generates in the world market.

At the same time, this decision, according to him, partly looks like an attempt to buy time while the international community seeks ways to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently used much less due to the risks of attacks.

Russia will receive additional income, but not fully

Halchynskyi notes that in the short term, Russia may benefit from the easing of sanctions, as some of its oil tankers are currently effectively waiting for the opportunity to sell their cargo.

In the short term, Russia can win from this story. Some oil tankers are just standing at sea and waiting for the opportunity to sell their cargo. If there is a chance to do so, Russia will get money for it.

However, the expert emphasizes that Russia will not be able to fully take advantage of this situation.

Russia will not be able to use this to the full due to the limited capacity of alternative export routes and limitations in its own tanker fleet.

According to him, the easing of sanctions may allow oil prices to remain relatively stable until the situation with sea routes stabilizes.

Can sanctions be lifted for a longer period?

One of the risks is the possibility that the temporary easing of sanctions could drag on. This could happen if the war in the Middle East continues for a long time and transport routes remain blocked.

If the war in the Persian Gulf drags on and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked, the world could face a shortage of oil from this region. In such a case, temporary solutions may continue.

However, he emphasized that in the event of a rapid stabilization of the situation, the continuation of such decisions seems less likely.

Donald Trump links the further lifting of sanctions against Russia to the end of the war against Ukraine. And we see that Russia does not agree to such proposals. Therefore, in conditions of a stable oil market, further lifting of sanctions seems unlikely.

At the same time, Halchynskyi noted that it is quite difficult to predict Trump's decisions.

Probably no one can comment on or predict President Trump's decisions. He is quite unpredictable: today he can make one statement, and in a few hours - a completely opposite one.

Will this affect fuel prices in Ukraine?

Speaking about fuel prices, the expert noted that the key factor remains not so much the sanctions policy as the physical volumes of oil on the market.

This is more related not to sanctions, but to the physical volume of oil. If the price of oil does not rise and there are stable supplies, then there is a chance that prices will stabilize.

According to Halchynskyi, Ukraine depends primarily on the European oil products market, so fuel prices within the country largely follow trends in Europe.

If oil costs about $120 per barrel, it will seriously affect fuel prices. We simply will not be able to find cheap oil products to buy.

At the same time, with stable supplies of oil and fuel to Europe, the market has a chance to stabilize.

If physical supplies of oil and fuel to the European market are stable and at a clear price, then prices in Ukraine will not rise sharply either.

Energy as a tool of war

The situation with the possible partial easing of sanctions against Russian oil once again demonstrates that the energy market is closely intertwined with geopolitics. Formally, such decisions can be explained by the desire to stabilize world oil prices amid the war in the Middle East and risks to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. However, for Ukraine, such steps have much deeper consequences.

Any easing of sanctions against the Russian energy sector means an increase in foreign currency revenues to the Russian budget. It is these funds that the Kremlin uses to finance the war - the production of weapons, the purchase of components, and the maintenance of the military machine. Even a partial expansion of opportunities for selling Russian oil can give Moscow additional resources to continue its aggression.

In this context, it is important for Ukraine not only to identify risks but also to actively work with partners to explain the consequences of such decisions. Kyiv must insist that sanctions pressure on Russia must remain a systemic and long-term tool for deterring the aggressor.

Otherwise, any easing of sanctions could create a dangerous precedent: aggression brings economic losses only temporarily, and then the world is forced to reopen markets due to global crises. That is why for Ukraine, the issue of sanctions against Russian energy remains not only economic but also security-related - and the struggle for their preservation must be one of the key areas of diplomatic work.