How the war in Iran affects negotiations on Ukraine – is peace closer or further away than ever?

Negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States, which were planned for March 11, have now been postponed. At the same time, the very idea of a new round of talks has again raised questions about the possibility of shifts in the war and the impact of global events on the negotiation process. Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, an international expert and candidate of political sciences, told UNN about this in a comment.

Can negotiations move the war from a dead end?

Information about a possible meeting of representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the United States in Istanbul has again drawn attention to the negotiation track. Despite the fact that the date of the talks was previously announced as March 11, it later became known that the negotiations had been postponed.

The very fact of preparing a new meeting causes discussions about possible results. On the one hand, the war has been going on for the fourth year, and the parties periodically return to diplomatic contacts. On the other hand, previous rounds of negotiations have not brought tangible progress in stopping hostilities.

According to Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, there are currently no grounds to expect serious results from the new negotiations.

I don't have any positive expectations from these negotiations yet. This will be another round, and, unfortunately, regarding the fundamental issues that underlie this conflict, I do not see any prerequisites for a breakthrough. We are still at a dead end.

According to him, the positions of the parties remain fundamentally unchanged.

The Russian Federation does not abandon its goals in this war. Ukraine also stands on its positions and is not ready to concede to Russia. And this is logical, because each country protects its interests. Therefore, it is still very difficult to talk about a quick way out of this situation.

What can the negotiations be about?

The expert suggests that even if a new round of negotiations takes place, it may be more technical or interim in nature. It is not so much about concluding political agreements as it is about trying to clarify the positions of the parties.

In such negotiations, the parties often use a diplomatic format to test possible compromises or discuss individual initiatives that do not affect key political issues.

This will most likely be an interim stage. Perhaps the parties will discuss individual ideas or projects, but I do not see any prerequisites for concluding a major agreement.

He also reminded that various options for economic cooperation mechanisms, including the idea of creating special economic zones, were discussed earlier, but these proposals have not yet received practical development.

Perhaps some developments will be in the context of economic initiatives. For example, the topic of free economic zones was discussed earlier. Of course, we are talking about Donbas. But even in this direction, there are no serious results yet.

How the war in the Middle East affects Ukraine

A separate role in the negotiations can be played by the new geopolitical situation related to the war in the Middle East. According to the expert, this factor can both accelerate negotiations and, conversely, complicate Ukraine's positions.

If the conflict in the Middle East drags on, it could create additional risks for Ukraine. First, Russia could gain economic benefits from rising oil prices. And this means additional resources that it can direct to waging war against Ukraine.

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In addition, he drew attention to the possible redistribution of US resources.

If the US is forced to spend significant resources on the war in the Middle East, this could also affect the situation. Some resources could be directed there, and this will objectively affect the balance of power.

Why Russia is not interested in a quick end to the war

According to Zhelikhovsky, the current international situation may even partially play into Moscow's hands.

For Russia, this situation may even be beneficial. It receives economic benefits from rising oil prices. In addition, we see certain shifts in communication between Moscow and Washington. Trump, obviously, is trying to maintain this dialogue.

That is why, according to him, the US may avoid sharp steps regarding Russia in order not to destroy diplomatic contacts.

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Trump is interested in maintaining communication with Russia. And this means that he will not act too harshly on issues related to the Russian-Ukrainian war.

What results to expect from the upcoming round

In conclusion, the expert believes that even if the negotiations take place, they are unlikely to bring quick political results.

I think that the next meeting, if it takes place, will proceed in a normal working mode - without any special breakthroughs and without serious results. At most, some humanitarian agreements can be expected.

At the same time, the expert drew attention to the symbolic aspect of the possible venue for negotiations.

It is interesting that Istanbul is again mentioned as a platform for negotiations. And this is somewhat symbolic, because negotiations have already taken place there before. Therefore, it is possible that the results may be very similar to what we saw then.

Great geopolitics and the Ukrainian war

Despite regular diplomatic contacts and attempts to organize new rounds of negotiations, the situation around the war in Ukraine remains complex. World politics is increasingly determined not only by one conflict, but by a whole series of parallel crises - from the war in the Middle East to the growth of global competition between great powers.

In such conditions, the Ukrainian war is increasingly seen not as a separate problem, but as part of a broader geopolitical picture. For Russia, the new conflict in the Middle East could mean additional economic benefits - primarily due to a possible rise in oil prices. This, in turn, gives Moscow additional resources to continue the war.

For the US and its allies, the situation is also complicated. If the new war in the Middle East drags on, some military, financial, and political resources may be directed there. In this case, the international community's attention to the Ukrainian issue risks being partially weakened.

At the same time, for Ukraine, the negotiation process remains an important diplomatic tool, even if quick results are difficult to expect. The very fact of negotiations allows maintaining international pressure on Russia and keeping the Ukrainian issue at the center of global politics.

That is why the upcoming rounds of negotiations, even if they take place, will be rather technical. They may concern humanitarian issues or the exchange of positions of the parties, but are unlikely to lead to a quick end to the war.

In conclusion, the current international situation rather complicates the diplomatic path to peace than brings it closer. The conflict in the Middle East creates new risks for global stability and can change the balance of interests of great powers. In such conditions, negotiations on Ukraine remain necessary, but real prerequisites for a major political breakthrough have not yet formed.