Will Iran strike Ukraine after statements about assistance in shooting down "Shaheds": expert assessed the risks
Kyiv • UNN
An expert assessed the risks of a Tehran attack after 11 countries appealed to Kyiv for support. A large-scale strike is unlikely due to Iran's resource deficit.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff considered the issue of escalation in the Middle East – including requests from states for security support from Ukraine in countering "Shaheds" and other similar challenges; currently, there are 11 requests from countries bordering Iran.
After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's statement that 11 countries appealed to Ukraine for help in shooting down Iranian Shahed-type drones, the question arises about the possible consequences for Kyiv. Earlier, Tehran stated that it was ready to respond to all countries supporting its adversaries.
According to international expert, candidate of political sciences Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, certain risks for Ukraine theoretically exist. At the same time, he believes that the probability of large-scale actions by Iran is currently low. He spoke about this in a comment to UNN.
Ukraine is already in conflict with Iran
After information emerged about Ukraine's assistance to other states in countering Iranian drones, there were suggestions that Tehran might consider Kyiv as one of the targets for retaliation. However, as the expert notes, Ukraine is already in de facto hostile relations with Iran due to its support for Russia in the war.
Of course, we must understand that certain risks exist. Iran is a state that reacts very sensitively to any actions that, in its opinion, may threaten the regime or its interests. Ukraine can theoretically fall into the field of such attention. But it is worth understanding that hostile relations already exist between us. Tehran helps the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine, in particular by transferring technologies and unmanned systems that are used for attacks on our territory.
Massive Iranian attack on Ukraine is unlikely
According to the expert, even if Iran considers an attack option, a large-scale strike on Ukraine seems unlikely. One of the reasons is that Ukraine already has experience in countering missile and drone attacks.
For Iran, the psychological effect is an important factor. Many countries that are currently under attack have not lived in war conditions and are not psychologically ready for missile or drone attacks. Ukraine, in this sense, is different. We have been at war for a long time and have experience in countering such attacks. Therefore, even if Iran tries something similar, the effect for it may be minimal.
In addition, Tehran is forced to consider its own military resources, which are already largely used in the conflict in the Middle East. According to Zhelikhovsky, Iran is currently facing pressure from the United States and Israel, which are systematically destroying its military infrastructure.
I don't think Iran is ready for a massive attack against Ukraine right now. It is already dispersing its resources, not knowing how long the current conflict in the Middle East will last. In addition, the United States and Israel are actively destroying its launchers, production facilities, and other military facilities. This significantly limits Tehran's capabilities.
Long-range missiles are an expensive resource
Another deterrent factor, the expert calls the high cost of long-range weapons that Iran can use in conflict with more priority opponents for itself.
Long-range missiles are an expensive and limited resource. Iran may need them for strikes against Israel or American bases. If they are used against Ukraine, where they can simply be shot down, the effect will be minimal, and resources will be lost. Therefore, I am not sure that Tehran will want to spend such weapons in the Ukrainian direction.
At the same time, he emphasized that it is impossible to completely rule out any scenarios, as it is about an authoritarian regime that is already participating in the war against Ukraine through its support for Russia.
Nothing can be ruled out, because this is a dictatorial regime that has already contributed to Russia's war against Ukraine. But for now, I do not see any preconditions for a large-scale attack by Iran. Ukraine is already in a state of war, has experience in countering such attacks, and continues to strengthen its air defense system together with partners.
Recall
Zelenskyy confirmed the dispatch of specialists to combat Iranian UAVs. Kyiv hopes to receive diplomatic support and new air defense systems.