Expert on the Victory Plan: it contains measures that partners can implement
Kyiv • UNN
The experts analyzed the Victory Plan presented by President Zelenskyy. They noted the potential benefits for Ukraine, but pointed out the difficulties of implementing some of the points due to the position of Western partners.
The Victory Plan presented by the President contains measures that can be implemented by partner states. Even partial implementation of this Plan will bring Ukraine closer to a certain system of collective security. This opinion was expressed in a commentary to UNN by Serhiy Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation.
Speaking of the Plan of Ukraine, these are the concrete steps that will definitely lead to a result. Only the implementation of these steps will lead to the desired result that would satisfy everyone. Anything else, what is called a Chinese peace plan, a Brazilian peace plan, is actually surrender, which in principle will not lead to peace. That is, the concepts of surrender and peace are mutually exclusive. Anything else only strengthens Russia's sense of impunity and permissiveness
He noted that the plan was developed by military and Ukrainian diplomats.
This is a plan that provides for a set of measures that can be implemented primarily by our partner states. This Plan includes measures of various kinds, so we can say that it is not just a military operation. Given the capacity of our partner countries, that is, all those who provide us with assistance, and the potential of these countries, it is the implementation of these measures that will give a guaranteed result. The victory plan consists of various components. Even the implementation of each individual component clearly strengthens our position and, of course, weakens the position of the Russians
The expert noted that even partial implementation of this plan will bring Ukraine closer to a certain system of collective security. It provides for the creation of a collective security system that would work and be effective.
Commenting on the clause of the Plan on authorization to strike military targets on the territory of the Russian Federation, Kuzan noted that no one wants to do this now, because of the elections, and that any escalation of the US would play into the hands of the Republicans.
The position of the White House and the current administration was known, but, for example, if we take away the election rhetoric, we understand that this is a prerequisite for getting closer to parity with Russia. In other words, we are not even equalizing our capabilities with the Russians, we are just getting one step closer to parity of our capabilities
He noted that all individual negotiations have already been held, for example, with the leaders of the UK and France.
They are actually, so to speak, unofficially, because, of course, the main violin is played by the United States, our European partners, who are ready to grant such permission and are ready to provide their weapons. I mean, Storm Shadow, Scalps. The Germans are completely looking back to Washington. That is, they will not make decisions without Washington, in principle, just like the British
The expert notes that the issue is only in Washington.
There are no military preconditions, no red lines, no explanations as to why they are not providing it. Because Ukraine has crossed all the red lines and demonstrated their (Russian - ed.) insolvency. Now there are only restrictions left, and these are restrictions dictated by US domestic policy. And as soon as these restrictions are removed, we will definitely get permission to launch long-range strikes. But in addition to the authorization, of course, we also need a tool. We need ballistic missiles from the Americans
Commenting on UNN's Victory Plan, international political scientist Maksym Yali noted that from a political point of view, from the point of view of preventing a possible new conflict, a new war on the part of Russia, as it already happened after the conflict was frozen in 2015, all points seem reasonable.
They should be of interest to our Western partners, in terms of return, if we are talking about Ukrainian resources, as a guarantee of investment in them. But, on the other hand, at least in the short term, they look very unrealistic, especially the clause about Ukraine's immediate invitation to NATO. The United States is not ready for this, let alone countries like Hungary or Slovakia to support such an initiative
He noted that US President Biden did not dare to do so either before the full-scale invasion or after, including the NATO anniversary summit this summer.
Therefore, the first point looks unrealistic. The other points, including the permission to strike with long-range weapons, also, based on the results of the visit to Washington and European capitals, if Biden continues to block this decision, we will not be able to strike even with the weapons systems we already have. In particular, Storm Shadow, Scalps, which contain American technology. So far, he is not ready for this, as we can see
He noted that Scholz is not ready either, because he has Bundestag elections in a year, and in regional elections he had a hard time winning in some states, or was defeated by Alternative for Germany, which advocates for establishing relations with Russia and cutting aid to Ukraine.
AddendumAddendum
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today unveiled the 5-point Victory Plan with 3 secret annexes. The plan includes geopolitical, military, economic, and security aspects to end the war and guarantee security.
In particular, Ukraine proposes to deploy a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its territory.
The Victory Plan also includes the lifting by partners of restrictions on the use of long-range weapons on the entire territory of Ukraine occupied by Russia and on the territory of the Russian Federation - on military infrastructure - and the provision of appropriate long-range missiles, drones and other means of destruction to Ukraine.
