Elections in Moldova: what a revanche of pro-Russian forces could lead to
Kyiv • UNN
On September 28, Moldovan citizens will vote in parliamentary elections that will decide whether the country maintains its course towards the EU or leans towards Russia. Large-scale disinformation campaigns supported by the Kremlin are creating a tense situation, and President Maia Sandu is urging citizens not to succumb to manipulation.
Citizens of Moldova will vote on Sunday, September 28, in parliamentary elections that could decide whether the country maintains its course towards the European Union or leans towards Russia. At the same time, large-scale disinformation campaigns supported by the Kremlin are already creating a tense situation in which the upcoming elections will take place. Will pro-European President Maia Sandu manage to stay in power, what threatens the country with a political revanche of pro-Russian forces, and what risks arise for Ukraine - we tell in the material of UNN.
Key risks of the elections in Moldova
President Maia Sandu called the election results decisive for Moldova's European future.
"You are the wall that holds peace and the future of our children," she told citizens in a live broadcast on Monday, urging them not to succumb to manipulation.
Earlier this month in Strasbourg, Sandu told the European Parliament that keeping Moldova on the path to the EU "is a matter of survival." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy echoed that warning at the UN General Assembly, saying that after Belarus and Georgia, "Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova either."
If Sandu's pro-European "Party of Solidarity and Action" (PAS) loses its majority, the new parliament could change the country's trajectory. According to the EU Council, Russia has invested resources in influence operations to support the Euroskeptic "Patriotic Electoral Bloc," led by former President Igor Dodon.
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Pro-Kremlin campaigns in Moldova
Russia's interference in Moldova's affairs is nothing new, but observers say that this time the scale and sophistication of these provocative actions are unprecedented.
Moscow's campaign combines its usual recipe of fake accounts, which experts describe as covert inauthentic behavior (CBI), with AI-generated content spread on TikTok, Instagram, and Telegram.
The Kremlin is spending hundreds of millions of euros to buy hundreds of thousands of votes on both banks of the Dniester and abroad
In July, the EU imposed sanctions on seven individuals and three organizations for "destabilizing" Moldova ahead of the vote. Several of them were linked to fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, who is accused of organizing vote-buying networks across the country.
According to an Alliance4Europe study published on Thursday, authorities traced $39 million to a network linked to Shor, aimed at influencing the elections. Shor, who fled after last year's presidential race, is also allegedly funding disinformation spread by bots on social media.
Which party is leading in the Moldovan elections
Reuters writes that a public opinion poll published by the sociological company Idata on Wednesday showed that Sandu's "Party of Action and Solidarity" has 24.9% support compared to 24.7% for the pro-Russian "Patriotic Bloc."
The "Alternative Bloc," which the government accuses of concealing a pro-Kremlin agenda, received 7.2% support, while a fourth group, "Our Party," led by the former mayor of Moldova's second-largest city, Balti, had 5.4%.
The poll showed that 26.6% of voters had not yet made up their minds. Considering only decided voters, the poll gave the "Patriotic Bloc" a slight advantage with 33.9% to 33.6%.
Reuters writes that if the ruling party, which held 61 seats in the 101-seat parliament, fails to retain a majority, Sandu is likely to strike a deal with "Our Party" rather than appoint a pro-Russian prime minister, political analysts said.
Revenge of pro-Russian forces
Preliminary exit poll results showed that Maia Sandu's party does not have a clear advantage. There is no large gap between the ruling party and the opposition pro-Russian party. This allows the pro-Russian opposition to make every effort to win the parliamentary elections
The political scientist emphasized that a maximally dirty election campaign should be expected, as Russia will do everything to ensure the victory of its allies in Moldova. At the same time, the Kremlin's influence will be strong even if the opposition loses the elections.
These will be maximally dirty elections, as Russia will use all available means to ensure that the pro-Russian party wins. Even if it loses, I think that the opposition forces will do everything to question the results of the parliamentary elections
Taras Semenyuk also added that European partners are closely monitoring this situation and are making every effort on their part to keep Sandu in power.
European partners also see this situation. Everything is being done to ensure that Maia Sandu retains parliament and can continue to implement pro-European policies. Moldova is extremely important for all of us today, because parliament is the executive branch of power and the party that wins will be able to form a coalition government. Even if Maia Sandu wins, she will have to form a coalition either with a pro-Russian party or someone else to continue governing the country unhindered
Semenyuk also recalled that Sandu previously won the presidential elections due to the votes of the Moldovan diaspora.
For Moldova, this is a moment of extreme self-determination. Several times in the last elections, the votes of the diaspora saved Moldova. In particular, Maia Sandu in the presidential elections, as the votes of the diaspora, those Moldovans living abroad, were in her favor. Attention to Moldova is maximally increased today
Consequences for Ukraine and partners
If the pro-European party wins, Moldova will maintain its course towards the EU, which reduces the chances of pro-Russian forces taking revenge and further creating problems in the country. On the other hand, the pro-Russian parliament will do everything to maximally destabilize Maia Sandu's position
The political scientist also admits the possibility of a repeat of the Georgian scenario in Moldova, as a result of which the country will make a maximum turn back in the pro-Russian direction.
There is a risk of early presidential elections and the victory of a pro-Russian candidate, and then Moldova will finally turn into a kind of Georgia 2.0. The country will do everything contrary to European integration
Ukraine has its own risks due to the possible victory of pro-Russian forces in the Moldovan elections. In particular, this concerns destabilization in the Odesa region due to the proximity of Transnistria.
For Ukraine, this will mean destabilization of the situation in the Odesa region from Transnistria, and Russia will contribute to this as much as possible. Therefore, all attention not only of Ukraine, but also of our allies, especially Romania, is brought to maximum political readiness. For our security, we can only rely on the help of pro-European forces
Political scientist Taras Zahorodny in a comment to UNN added that Russia is now doing everything to surround Ukraine with countries with pro-Russian regimes and put pressure on it, including through Transnistria.
Russia will do everything to surround Ukraine with unfriendly regimes. In Moldova, this is not difficult to do - the country is small, there are many pro-Russian parties. Enough funds are being poured in to continue influencing the political situation in the country and supporting its allies in the country
He added that in order to eliminate this pro-Russian influence, it is extremely important to put an end to the existence of Transnistria.
The victory of pro-European forces in Moldova is not enough. It is necessary to eliminate Transnistria as a territorial unit. And Ukraine must contribute to this in every possible way