China became the most important supplier of Russia's war machine - Economist
Kyiv • UNN
China has become a key supplier to the Kremlin's war machine, reflected in the use of Chinese components in Shahed drones and other weapons. This enables the aggressor to intensify shelling of Ukraine, despite Western sanctions and Beijing's public statements.
Ukraine faces an increase in drone attacks from Russia and is increasing the number of attack drones in its "salvos". Analysis of the designs of enemy drones showed that China has become a key supplier of the Kremlin's war machine
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"Shahed" is an Iranian-designed attack drone that is now mass-produced in Russia. It was previously stuffed with American microelectronics, which were smuggled in through Asia to circumvent sanctions. However, the latest models are equipped with Chinese parts. Those used this year have Chinese-made antennas. One example contained only two American components out of 15.
This reflects a trend. Since the beginning of the war in 2022, China has cautiously provided military assistance to Russia. According to Ukrainian and European intelligence, it has rejected some Russian requests for assistance and equipment.
China has avoided large-scale supplies of ready-made ammunition or lethal weapons that could provoke American or European sanctions. Beijing does not want the international condemnation that would arise if too many of its weapons appeared on the battlefield. But there are signs that China has approached this limit - and perhaps crossed it
Western officials reported that China has been providing various forms of support to Russia since 2023, including critically important weapon components and civilian drones. Much of this has been publicly documented in analysis of weapon debris, through open-source supply tracking, and in cases of US sanctions against Chinese companies. But, importantly, these officials also point to a "small number of artillery shells and military UAVs" (drones).
So far, there has been little public evidence of artillery ammunition changing hands. In early 2023, China considered sending Russia a batch of 122 mm and 152 mm caliber shells, but there is no indication that it did so on a large scale. Later that year, Ukrainian troops discovered Chinese-made mortar shells near Melitopol, in southern Ukraine. It is unclear whether such supplies were made directly from China or indirectly from third countries where Chinese small arms and ammunition are common.
The situation with military drones is more alarming. Last year, Reuters news agency reported that AO IEMZ "Kupol", part of a Russian state arms company, developed and conducted flight tests of a new drone model, "Harpy-3" - essentially a copy of the Iranian "Shahed" - in China with the help of Chinese firms. In October, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on two Chinese companies, one of which supplied the engine for this drone.
In May 2024, Grant Shapps, who was then the UK Secretary of State for Defence, declassified intelligence on the drone to expose such cooperation. "We knew exactly where it was," he says. Some European intelligence officials say they have not yet seen evidence of Chinese lethal aid. But there is no doubt that "Harpy-3" was a lethal system, not a dual-use aircraft, says Sir Grant.
In practice, Chinese weapons are much less vital to Russia than Chinese components and tools. At a recent briefing for a small group of journalists, including The Economist, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that "Chinese representatives" were present at production facilities in Russia. A European defense official confirms this, adding that China seeks to test the effectiveness of its materials on the battlefield.
Since the beginning of the war, both sides have widely used relatively everyday Chinese-made products, not least civilian drones (which, among other things, help identify targets). But last September, China tightened export restrictions on drones and their components. In theory, the new rules apply to both Russia and Ukraine. In practice, they are applied selectively. Zelenskyy says that China "cut off" the supply of such equipment as small quadcopters to Ukraine, while "leaving the tap open" for Russia.
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China has also intensified cooperation with Russia in other areas, says a high-ranking Ukrainian security official, who claims that Chinese leaders may be trying to counter American diplomatic efforts aimed at dividing Russia and China. This official claims that China helped Russia produce explosives (China dominates the world market for nitrocellulose, a key ingredient) and fiber optic cables used in wired-guided jamming drones, which are becoming increasingly important on the battlefield.
In late May, Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, publicly spoke about China's supply of machine tools, chemicals, gunpowder, and other materials vital to Russia's defense industry. The "Economic Security Council of Ukraine" research group notes that in 2023-24, China became the leading supplier of industrial equipment to Russia, accounting for 80-90% of imported machine tools, many of which were of Western origin.
So what does China get in return? For starters, valuable lessons. Western officials say Russia and China "continue to explore opportunities to exchange Western technologies captured on the battlefield in Ukraine." China will want to acquire American precision missiles, European cruise missiles, etc. There are also signs of cooperation in areas such as space technology, which were not previously discussed.
None of this means that Sino-Russian relations are successful and constructive. Part of the Russian elite, including people from its security apparatus, is concerned about their country's growing dependence on China, as well as Chinese espionage in Russia. Despite all the talk of friendship, the Russian security service FSB imprisons Russian scientists for allegedly disclosing secrets to China. Many of these people appear to have done nothing wrong; their arrests reflect a deeply rooted fear and prejudice against China. But without this country's constant help, Russia's defense industry would be paralyzed.
Recall
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said earlier this month that over the next few years, NATO must increase investments in the development of its own defense capabilities, particularly in air and missile defense, by 400%. Because "Putin's war machine is accelerating."