Tsikhanouskaya's visit to Kyiv is a signal to Lukashenko and preparation for a future without him – political scientist
Kyiv • UNN
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's visit to Kyiv has become a signal of a future without Lukashenko. Ukraine is preparing for various scenarios on its northern border.
The visit of the leader of the Belarusian opposition Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to Kyiv is an important political signal both for the regime of Alexander Lukashenko and for the future of Ukrainian-Belarusian relations. Ukraine is demonstrating that it distinguishes between the Belarusian people and the current regime in Minsk, and is also preparing for various scenarios regarding the situation in the northern direction. This opinion was expressed by political scientist Oleh Lisnyi in an exclusive comment to UNN.
"Ukraine demonstrates a vision of the future without Lukashenko"
The political scientist believes that Tsikhanouskaya's visit to Kyiv should not be perceived as an accidental or exclusively symbolic step. According to him, Ukraine is effectively showing that it is not giving up on Belarusian society, despite Lukashenko's role in Russia's war against Ukraine.
"We do not have a wide choice regarding the political opposition of Belarus. But it is important for us to separate the Lukashenko regime from the Belarusian people. We cannot consider Belarusians as enemies just because Lukashenko became an accomplice to Russian aggression. He is a party to the war, no matter how much he tries to mask it. And Tsikhanouskaya's visit demonstrates our vision of the future – a future without Lukashenko,"
At the same time, he emphasized that the most useful representatives of the Belarusian opposition for Ukraine right now are the Belarusian volunteers fighting against Russia on Ukraine's side.
"There is the political opposition, and then there are Belarusians who are fighting for Ukraine with weapons in their hands. And it is they who are the most important representatives of the future Belarus for us today,"
"The threat from Belarus must be taken as real"
Oleh Lisnyi believes that Ukraine and its partners should proceed from the worst-case scenario and not underestimate the possibility of an escalation on the border with Belarus. According to him, even if Lukashenko tries to avoid direct entry into the war, the threat itself remains real.
"We must proceed from the fact that the threat from Belarus is real and potentially inevitable. Not because an offensive will necessarily start tomorrow, but because we have already gone through a history where many did not believe in the possibility of a large-scale war from Russia. It is better to prepare for the worst-case scenario than to underestimate the enemy again,"
The political scientist noted that Belarus in its current form remains part of the Kremlin's system of influence.
"It is still the hand of the Kremlin. Another matter is that the Belarusian authorities themselves do not really want to participate directly in the war. Lukashenko perfectly understands the risks, and Belarusian society has no tradition of fighting against Ukrainians,"
Lukashenko is trying to "walk between the raindrops"
Commenting on the recent telephone conversation between French President Emmanuel Macron and Lukashenko, the political scientist suggested that the Belarusian dictator is trying to maintain multi-vectorism and balance between the West and Russia.
"As long as Lukashenko is there, the threat remains more of a menace. He constantly demonstrates that he is preparing: conducting exercises, mobilization measures, digging something, training. But he goes no further. One gets the impression that he is constantly telling Putin: 'I'm trying, but it's not working yet.' He has been playing this exact game for several years now,"
According to Lisnyi, Lukashenko is simultaneously trying to maintain contacts with the West, China, and the USA.
"He wants to be 'between the raindrops.' The only question is whether Putin will allow him to do so. Because it cannot be ruled out that at a certain point the Kremlin will find levers of pressure that will force Lukashenko to act more harshly,"
"Putin can very easily sacrifice Lukashenko"
Lisnyi does not rule out that at a critical moment, the Russian president may try to force Lukashenko into more aggressive actions, even despite the risks to the Belarusian regime itself.
"Putin is a very big coward, but that is exactly why he is capable of burning everything around him to save himself. If he decides there is no other way out, he can very easily throw Lukashenko into the 'furnace of history.' And Lukashenko understands this perfectly,"
The political scientist noted that the economy of Belarus is vulnerable, and the country itself could suffer colossal losses in the event of direct entry into the war.
"Even the Belarusian military perfectly understands that a large-scale attack against Ukraine could end in disaster for them. But the problem is that it might not just be about the Belarusian army. Russia is capable of using the territory of Belarus to station its troops and conduct mobilization,"
"Ukraine cannot publicly flirt with Lukashenko"
At the same time, Lisnyi is convinced that Ukraine should not demonstrate a public warming of relations with Lukashenko, even if some Western partners maintain contact with him.
"We cannot look as if we have become friends with Lukashenko. This would be the wrong signal both for the Belarusian opposition and for those Belarusians who are fighting alongside us. Lukashenko opened the border for the Russian army; missiles were fired at Ukraine from there. For us, he is an accomplice to the crime,"
In his opinion, European countries can conduct more pragmatic work with Minsk.
"Europeans have more economic levers of influence over Lukashenko. They can play a more pragmatic game with him: saying that if you do not intervene in the war directly and distance yourself from Putin, then after the war ends, you have a chance to avoid the worst-case scenario,"
"Ukraine does not need another front"
The expert emphasized that even if Ukraine is capable of causing serious damage to Belarus in response to aggression, the opening of a new front remains a dangerous scenario.
"Yes, the military says that we are capable of very quickly delivering serious strikes against Belarus. But any new front is a diversion of resources. And that is exactly what we don't need. We already have significantly less manpower than the Russians," the political scientist concluded.