The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts the next key policy rate cut in early 2025. The NBU will maintain an active presence in the foreign exchange market to control inflation and support the hryvnia exchange rate.
The international financial support will allow the government to finance the budget deficit and support the NBU reserves. The partners are expected to provide Ukraine with about USD 38 billion. USD in 2024 and USD 31 billion in 2025. USD 31 billion in 2025.
NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi announced that Ukraine's economic recovery is continuing despite the war and damage to the power grid. The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been improved to 3.7%, and is expected to accelerate to 4-5% in 2025-2026.
The National Bank of Ukraine is discussing the possibility of introducing restrictions on card-to-card transfers and setting a limit of UAH 100,000 for such transactions, but is committed to finding a solution that takes into account the concerns of volunteers and the public.
The National Bank of Ukraine reports a steady downward trend in lending rates: since June last year, lending rates have fallen by 4%, indicating a gradual recovery in lending activity across various sectors, including corporates, small and medium-sized businesses, and retail lending.
Despite the war, Ukraine managed to reverse the downward trend in household time deposits: in 2023, they grew by 37%, and the share of such deposits increased from 30% to 35%.
Ukraine may receive another tranche of more than $2. 2 billion from the IMF after the successful fourth review of the Extended Fund Facility program, which will increase the total amount of funding received to $7.6 billion.
The National Bank of Ukraine plans to limit the number of monthly transfers from P2P cards to 30 and the total amount to UAH 100,000, but these restrictions will not affect 98% of Ukrainians, and the limits can be increased by providing the bank with income documents.
The National Bank of Ukraine has raised the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate to historic highs of 40. 1153 hryvnia per dollar and 43.491 hryvnia per euro.
The National Bank of Ukraine plans to limit card transfers and introduce limits of 100,000 UAH and 30 transactions per month for outgoing P2P transfers, but this will not affect volunteers in any way, and the regulator will discuss all aspects with volunteers and make amendments if necessary.
The National Bank of Ukraine expects currency liberalization to cost Ukraine about $5-5. 5 billion, but considers it a productive investment to facilitate capital flows and economic recovery.
The NBU expects businesses to use the opportunities of currency liberalization responsibly by returning export earnings to Ukraine rather than keeping them abroad.
The situation in the foreign exchange market is now under control, and Ukraine has successfully transitioned to a managed floating exchange rate regime without shocks, NBU Governor Andriy Pyshny said. The uncertainty that exists, according to the head of the National Bank, is related to security risks, and the war is a key factor that generates risks.
Ukraine needs the legal basis and political will to access $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to finance its defense and recovery from the Russian invasion.
The National Bank of Ukraine is preparing a series of steps for currency liberalization in the coming weeks, keeping international reserves at the current level, as part of its strategy to ease currency restrictions and return to inflation targeting.
The National Bank of Ukraine sells dollars from its reserves to compensate for the structural shortage of foreign currency during the war, prevent the devaluation of the hryvnia, and maintain macrofinancial stability.
The IMF Board of Directors approved the third revision of the Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine, which allows for the immediate disbursement of about $880 million to support Ukraine's state budget expenditures, international reserves, and macrofinancial stability.
Ukraine expects a decision by the IMF Board of Directors on the next $900 million tranche under the EFF program in a week.
Ukraine and the European Union have signed an agreement to provide €6 billion in soft loans to Ukraine, of which €4. 5 billion will be disbursed in March and the remaining €1.5 billion in April 2024 after the reform indicators are met.
The NBU has determined the list of systemically important payment infrastructure in Ukraine, which includes the electronic payment system as the only systemically important payment system.
Expert: SBI should appeal to NBU Governor with a motion to remove Zyma, director of the National Bank's legal department.
The NBU governor noted that the agreement at the IMF staff level paves the way for Ukraine to receive the next tranche of $880 million and resume international assistance.
The National Bank of Ukraine puts into circulation a new commemorative 50-hryvnia banknote "Unity Saves the World" in honor of Ukraine's fight for freedom and unity against Russian aggression.
The IMF team headed by Uma Ramakrishnan has begun meetings in Kyiv with Ukrainian authorities to discuss the economic challenges facing Ukraine, and on February 17, the IMF mission will begin negotiations on the third review of the program for Ukraine in Warsaw.
