U.S. contacts with Ukraine and the Russian Federation have thawed the negotiation process, but there has been no breakthrough so far, says a political scientist
Kyiv • UNN
According to the expert, it was important for Washington to receive positive signals from both sides, and in his assessment, this became the main result of the visits.
American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Russia and Ukraine on September 5 and 6. A journalist from UNN spoke with Oleksii Buriachenko, president of the International Institute for Security Studies, about what to expect after the negotiation process and whether it produced any real results.
Details
Oleksii Buriachenko noted that the very emergence of a new contact between the parties is already a certain result. However, one should not expect these meetings to bring a swift end to the war for now, because, according to him, the main participants in the process have different interests.
I would not call what happened full-fledged negotiations. It was more an attempt to "revive" the negotiation process, which had been blocked by the Russian Federation, because for six months no meetings had taken place in any format. Thawing the negotiation process is better than a complete absence of such dialogue. This is probably a certain positive development that should be noted following the communications between the two special representatives of the President of the United States of America—Witkoff and Kushner
The expert also believes that the resumption of negotiations was particularly important for the Donald Trump administration. The US president promised to end the Russian-Ukrainian war during the election campaign, and now, in the political analyst's view, this issue also has domestic political significance for the White House.
Trump had already promised to end the Russian-Ukrainian war during the election campaign. This is the only foreign policy issue that was incorporated into his inaugural address, meaning it was, to a certain extent, legally recorded. Now, ahead of the midterm elections, the Democrats are actively attacking Trump and the Republican Party specifically over this issue. Therefore, this story, which is disadvantageous for Trump, had to be somehow rebooted
That is why, according to the political analyst, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were primarily carrying out a tactical task—namely, establishing contacts with both Kyiv and Moscow. Oleksii Buriachenko notes that it was important for Washington to receive positive signals from both sides, and in his assessment, this became the main result of the visits.
The goal of Witkoff and Kushner was simply to hold positive negotiations with both Zelenskyy and Putin. An additional bonus would have been to say that the parties respected the peacemaking position of the President of the United States and had agreed to a three-day ceasefire while these negotiations were taking place. At this stage, they achieved the so-called "minimum plan"—at least they attempted to stop Trump's approval ratings from falling because of the absence of any result regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war
At the same time, the political analyst sees a long-term goal of the US administration as well. It involves an attempt to achieve a result that could be presented as fulfilling Trump's promise, although under the current conditions, according to the expert's assessment, this remains a difficult task.
There is a maximum plan—to achieve, by the midterm elections, at least a first approximation of what Trump promised, and then a second approximation approximately six months later, as Kushner said. That is, ultimately, to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. But it seems to me that they may also remain with the minimum plan and continue consultations if they realize that, for a whole range of reasons, it will not be possible to move toward quick results. This is the degree of flexibility that suits the American side as of today
The expert also believes that the current situation does not indicate Russia's readiness to quickly agree to peace. He points to the lack of sufficient pressure from the United States and Europe. Meanwhile, Ukraine's long-range strikes remain one of the few factors that genuinely influence Russia.
We had a good conversation — Zelenskyy on Witkoff and Kushner's visit06.09.26, 22:40 • 12169 views
With a high degree of probability, Ukraine will enter the winter in a state of war. At least judging by the public rhetoric we have heard, the United States does not currently plan to put sufficient pressure on Putin and the Russian Federation. Without additional pressure—both European and American—it is certainly not worth hoping that Putin will simply agree to conditions unfavorable to him
Separately, the political scientist explains the presence of European representatives in Kyiv during the American visit. According to him, European states are also interested in being involved in the negotiation process, at least at the level of consultations, because they are particularly concerned that potential agreements should not create new security risks for the EU itself.
It is extremely important for Europeans now to be aware of the context of these negotiations, to be integrated both into the process itself and, most importantly, into the agreements that could hypothetically be reached through the mediation of the United States. It is important for Europeans that Ukraine does not accidentally agree to the terms brought by the Americans, because if Europe's interests are not integrated into such an agreement, Russia could then turn its attention to threats against Europe itself
In the expert's opinion, Ukraine, the United States, Russia, and the European states are currently pursuing different goals. For example, according to him, fulfilling Trump's political promises is important for Washington, ending the war on its own terms is important for Moscow, while Europe seeks to reduce the future threat from Russia. Ukraine, by contrast, is primarily interested in ending the war and obtaining security.
Each of the actors in this negotiation process has come to implement its specific priorities and goals. The achievement of peace is only the superficial goal. The United States needs to strengthen Trump's position and, accordingly, that of the Republican Party ahead of the elections. Europeans need Russia not to attack them after an agreement is reached. Russia needs the war to end on its terms, while in essence the only country that simply needs peace is Ukraine
Oleksii Buriachenko also does not expect Western pressure on Russia to intensify quickly. According to him, the American bill on new sanctions may not be adopted before the midterm elections, and it will also be difficult for Europe to quickly approve a new package of restrictions. In such a situation, Ukraine itself remains the main factor of pressure.
This leads to the conclusion that there is insufficient pressure on Russia from both the United States and Europe. The only pressure being exerted on Russia is by Ukraine itself, with the help of long-range strikes. But whether this is enough to make Putin take a constructive approach in the negotiations is difficult to say
At the same time, the expert calls the current intensification of diplomatic contacts useful for Ukraine, because Kyiv has indeed received an opportunity to restore dialogue, show its partners Russia's position, and once again emphasize the need for support ahead of the winter period.
Ukraine has received an opportunity for dialogue, an opportunity for consolidation, and an opportunity to demonstrate the full inadequacy of the Russian Federation and its unpreparedness for realistic peace. Consequently, it has an opportunity for deeper communication with American and European partners so that they truly understand: they should not hope for something to happen before winter; Ukraine needs to be strengthened now. If Ukraine stands, this is the best guarantee for Europe
The political scientist also separately emphasizes that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are not the main architects of the negotiation process. According to him, their task is primarily to carry out the instructions of the U.S. president and maintain contacts with Kyiv and Moscow, while the formation of the further strategy, in his assessment, depends more on the leadership of the Trump administration itself.
Witkoff and Kushner are not the architects of the negotiating process. They are representatives of Donald Trump who are carrying out his instructions. They came, delivered messages, listened, made certain statements, and engaged in communication. The architect of the negotiating process is Marco Rubio, and it is this person, in coordination with Trump, who will determine the further negotiating strategies
Thus, according to the political analyst's assessment, the current contacts did not provide the parties with a ready-made agreement to end the war. At the same time, each participant obtained what they had joined the process for. For Ukraine, the main result was the restoration of diplomatic contact and the opportunity to continue working with partners.
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