Ukrainian offensive in Kursk disrupts secret talks with Russia on partial ceasefire - WP

The Washington Post, citing its sources, reports that Ukraine and Russia were planning to send delegations to Doha this month to conclude a historic agreement to end attacks on energy facilities and infrastructure on both sides. This could lead to a partial ceasefire and provide a reprieve for both countries, UNN writes.

According to diplomats and officials involved in the talks, Ukraine and Russia were planning to send delegations to Doha this month to conclude a historic agreement to end attacks on energy facilities and infrastructure on both sides, which could lead to a partial ceasefire and provide a reprieve for both countries.

However, according to officials, the indirect talks, in which the Qataris acted as mediators, meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were disrupted by Ukraine's surprise invasion of Russia's western Kursk region last week. Information about a possible deal and the planned summit had not been made public before.

For more than a year, Russia has been damaging Ukraine's power grid with cruise missile and drone strikes, causing significant damage to power plants and widespread blackouts across the country. At the same time, Ukraine has been striking Russian oil facilities with drones, causing fires at refineries and storage facilities, which has led to a 15% decrease in oil refining in Russia and a rise in gas prices in the world.

Some participants in the talks hoped they could lead to a more comprehensive agreement to end the war, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. The willingness to engage in the talks indicated some shift in the positions of both countries, at least on a limited ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Kyiv would consider a full ceasefire only if Russia withdraws all its troops from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Putin, for his part, demands that Ukraine hand over four Ukrainian regions, some of which are not currently controlled by Russian troops but have been declared part of Russia by the Kremlin.

Ukrainian and Russian officials have not held direct talks since the first months of the war, when delegations met in secret talks in Istanbul that ultimately failed. Later, the two sides agreed on a grain deal that allowed Ukraine to ship grain across the Black Sea, but this agreement also fell apart when Russia withdrew. Other attempts to create humanitarian corridors have also largely failed.

A diplomat who participated in the talks said that Russian officials postponed a meeting with Qatari officials after Ukraine's invasion of western Russia. The Moscow delegation called this an "escalation" and asked for the talks to be postponed. Kyiv, for its part, wanted to send its delegation to Doha anyway, but Qatar refused because it saw no point in a unilateral meeting.

According to the diplomats, the Office of the President of Ukraine said that the Doha summit was postponed due to the situation in the Middle East, but it will be held in a video conference format on August 22. Kyiv plans to consult with its partners on the implementation of the agreement.

The Kremlin did not comment on the situation, and the White House refrained from commenting, noting that only Ukraine should decide the timing and terms of a potential ceasefire agreement with Russia.

A diplomat briefed on the talks said that both Kyiv and Moscow were ready to accept the agreements on the eve of the summit. However, expectations in Kyiv remained mixed about the success of the talks, with some estimating a 20% chance of success, while others were even more pessimistic, even if the Kursk assault had not taken place. The planned talks, which have now been postponed, significantly raise the stakes for Zelenskyy.

One of the reasons Ukrainian officials doubt Russia's sincerity is its large-scale bombing campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure in recent weeks. More attacks could leave civilians without power for several hours each day during the cold winter months.

According to Ukrainian and Western officials, Ukraine's offensive was intended to put pressure on Russia and increase leverage for future negotiations.

Military analysts are skeptical that Ukrainian troops will be able to maintain control over Russian territory. Moscow also continues to gain ground in the Donetsk region and is not withdrawing troops to protect against a new Ukrainian offensive.

Despite the possible improvement in Ukraine's negotiating position, the likelihood of quick peace talks seems to have diminished. Putin has publicly promised not to soften his position after the attack on Russian territory.

A diplomat familiar with the talks said that Qatar has been discussing with Kyiv and Moscow an agreement on a moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure for the past two months. The parties have agreed to hold a summit in Doha, and only minor details remain to be agreed upon.

"After Kursk, the Russians hesitated," said another source familiar with the talks.

A Russian academic with close ties to high-ranking Russian diplomats said that Putin would not be in the mood for a deal after the Kursk offensive.

"You know that our Russian leadership usually does not compromise under pressure," he said.

The academician added that Russia may be more willing to consider an agreement on energy infrastructure as a way to lure Kyiv into broader ceasefire talks. Otherwise, he said, Moscow may be less motivated, as it believes it can do more damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure than Kyiv can to Russia's oil refineries.

The publication notes that Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy system have become a brutal and effective tactic. The daily lives of Ukrainians living far from the front line have been disrupted by long power outages that can last for hours. The blackouts have also dealt a serious blow to the economy, which has already suffered from the war. Some people who have moved abroad cite the instability of the electricity supply as the main reason for their departure.

Ukrainian government officials have expressed concern about how the country will survive the winter if Russian bombing continues. Due to Russian airstrikes, Ukraine has lost about nine gigawatts of the 18 gigawatts needed for peak consumption this winter, a loss too great to be quickly restored. Officials warn that during the colder months, electricity may be available for only five to seven hours a day, and possibly less.

"Everything has to be weighed - our potential and possible damage to our economy versus how much more damage we can do to them and their economy. But energy is definitely critical for us. We sometimes forget about the economy here, but we are in danger of free fall if we don't have light and heat in the winter," said a Ukrainian official at a briefing on the planned summit in Qatar.

Ukrainians want a potential agreement to end attacks on energy infrastructure to be modeled after the 2022 Turkish-United Nations-brokered grain deal that temporarily lifted Russia's naval blockade and allowed Ukrainian grain to be transported across the Black Sea.

Last year, Moscow withdrew from the agreement, claiming that only 3% of the grain went to the countries most in need, although UN data showed that most exports went to developing countries. Despite this, Kyiv continues to successfully ship cargo from its Black Sea ports with the support of Ankara.

A second Ukrainian official familiar with the potential agreement noted that Ukraine is negotiating with partners to ensure the effectiveness of the agreement, rather than engaging with Russia one-on-one as it has done in the past.

Kyiv has been actively lobbying for support for its 10-point peace plan, which includes the complete withdrawal of Russian troops. At a summit in Switzerland in June, organized by Ukraine, delegations from over 80 countries signed a joint statement promoting prisoner exchange, nuclear and food security.

Progress on other issues, such as energy security, was to be discussed in smaller working groups. After the summit, Qatar proposed the idea of an energy truce and began discussing the plan with both sides. Ukrainian officials supported this initiative, as they considered it part of Kyiv's peace plan and intended to involve partners in the energy security working group.

Ukraine did not invite a Russian delegation to the peace summit in June, but Zelenskyy said Moscow could be invited to the next summit, expected this fall. Some Ukrainian officials and Western diplomats interpreted this as a sign that Kyiv has become more open to talks with Russia.

Other Ukrainian officials emphasize that Ukraine has always been ready to negotiate, but demands that these negotiations be conducted with respect for the full territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Some Russian analysts believe that Ukraine's seizure of territory in the Kursk region could become an important bargaining chip in any future negotiations with Russia if Ukrainian troops are able to strengthen their positions before an expected Russian counteroffensive.

"Putin has said many times that any peace agreement must take into account the facts on the ground, and that Russia will not leave the territory it has seized," said Sergei Markov, a political analyst with ties to the Kremlin.

According to him, Ukraine is trying to "break this formula and get Russian territory in exchange for exchange.

Recall

The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force reported on active aviation operations in the Kursk sector. Ukrainian pilots are conducting precision strikes on enemy targets, including strongholds, equipment and logistics centers.