Summer extreme weather in Europe led to short-term losses of €43 billion - analysis
Kyiv • UNN
This summer, severe weather conditions in Europe caused short-term economic losses of at least €43 billion. By 2029, these losses are expected to increase to €126 billion.
Severe weather conditions that hit Europe this summer, according to EU estimates, led to short-term economic losses of at least 43 billion euros, and by 2029, these losses are expected to grow to 126 billion euros, writes UNN with reference to The Guardian.
Details
According to an express analysis, which was not submitted for peer review but is based on the correlation between weather and economic data published in an academic study this month, the immediate economic damage from one severe summer of heat, drought, and floods amounted to 0.26% of the EU's output in 2024.
The biggest losses were suffered by Cyprus, Greece, Malta, and Bulgaria – each of these countries experienced short-term losses exceeding 1% of their gross value added for 2024 (an indicator similar to GDP). They are followed by other Mediterranean countries, including Spain, Italy, and Portugal.
Economists from the University of Mannheim and the European Central Bank called the results "conservative" as they do not account for the record wildfires that swept across Southern Europe last month and the cumulative impact of extreme weather events occurring at the same time.
Serish Usman, an economist at the University of Mannheim and the lead author of the study, stated that the study's "timely estimates" can help policymakers identify targeted support without official data.
Scientists have rushed to determine how much global warming has exacerbated extreme weather events this summer. Studies show that due to climate change, the probability of fires in Spain and Portugal has increased 40-fold, and in Greece and Turkey, 10-fold. The death toll from a "quite devastating" June heatwave is estimated to have tripled in 12 major cities due to pollution caused by planetary warming.
Stephane Hallegatte, the World Bank's lead economist for climate, who was not involved in the study, said it confirms that the broader economic consequences of extreme weather events are more significant than direct ones and last longer than people think. However, he warned that the study used "imperfect proxies" to identify extreme weather events, which is likely to lead to an underestimation of the full costs. Gross value added does not reflect all the costs associated with extreme weather events for people and companies, he added, as well as the benefits of reduced vulnerability.
"Especially when natural disasters affect poor communities and people, the impact on gross value added can be minimal because these people are poor," Hallegatte said. "But that doesn't mean they won't be affected."