Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic: political scientist explained how they will affect Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic will be held on October 3 and 4. Andrej Babiš's ANO party is leading in the polls, ahead of the ruling coalition.
Parliamentary elections will soon be held in the Czech Republic. The party of right-wing populist Andrej Babiš is leading in opinion polls and may win, and Babiš may return to the post of prime minister. Dmytro Levus, an international political scientist at the "United Ukraine" analytical center, told UNN what consequences this could have for Ukraine and why there is a renaissance of populist forces in Europe.
Elections will be held in the Czech Republic on September 3 and 4. The populist ANO party, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, is leading in the polls, ahead of Prime Minister Petr Fiala's liberal-conservative ruling coalition.
As Reuters reported on September 29, the ANO party of Czech billionaire and former Prime Minister Babiš slightly increased its lead over the main ruling center-right coalition Spolu (Together), according to the results of the latest poll before the October 3-4 elections, conducted on Monday.
The IPSOS poll showed that support for the ANO party increased by 0.4 percentage points from August to 32.6%, while Spolu weakened by 0.4 points to 21.1%.
ANO has been confidently leading in the polls for months, fueled by promises to cut taxes, raise wages, increase spending support, curb immigration, and counter the European Union's "green" policies.
Who is Andrej Babiš?
Babiš is a Czech billionaire and former prime minister. He is an ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Thus, he can undermine the EU's course in Ukraine.
Last year, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Austrian FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl, and Czech ANO leader Andrej Babiš announced the creation of a new far-right faction in the European Parliament.
Babiš then stated that the alliance has three main priorities: "protecting sovereignty, fighting illegal migration, and reviewing the Green Deal."
He also spoke about his intention to stop military aid to Ukraine, opposed increasing NATO spending, and questioned Article 5.
In addition, Babiš stated that he does not plan to lift the ban on Russian media subject to EU sanctions.
Expert opinion on the elections in the Czech Republic
We see a pan-European trend where populist forces aimed at cooperation with the Russian Federation are gaining new significance, gaining more influence, and returning to power, as in the case of the Czech Republic.
How the results of the parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic will affect Ukraine
Levus noted that in the case of the Czech Republic, certain problems with a united front against Russia and with support for Ukraine can already be predicted.
The political scientist recalled the statement by ANO party leader and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš that the Czech initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine would be stopped. Babiš called this initiative "rotten" and too expensive for taxpayers, which should be spent "on our own people."
I don't think it will be that radical, but the fact that the issue of reducing aid to Ukraine will constantly be raised is beyond doubt.
The founder of the populist ANO party regularly downplays the threat Russia poses to the Czech Republic and wants to pressure Ukraine to quickly make peace.
"It is quite obvious that Babiš is helping Putin," Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala told the Financial Times.
Reasons for the flourishing of pro-Russian political forces in Europe
Political scientist Levus stated that among the countries of Central Europe, the formation of an authoritarian regime by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, which was formed in Hungary and has lasted for more than 10 years, is striking.
This is precisely evidence that practically throughout Central Europe there is a trauma of totalitarianism during communist rule, which has not been fully worked through. It is making itself felt. This leads to a renaissance of various populist forces that openly parasitize on the lie that there are conservative values promoted by Russia, which is also a lie. In this way, they are returning to power in a certain way.
What are the chances that the pro-Russian party will get a large percentage of votes?
Given what I hear from people who are more involved in the topic of the Czech Republic, it can be predicted that yes, this can happen and they can indeed gain a certain advantage and even win.
How pro-Russian forces manage to gain popularity
One of the methods used by right-wing populist parties is the use of manipulative topics, in particular, promises of a better life for the population.
Also, in addition to populist theses about living better economically, Russian propaganda also works for them, because many people are openly afraid of war, and therefore, in order for it not to happen, they believe that it is better to agree to all of Russia's conditions: not to support Ukraine, not to provoke Russia.