Iran has not yet decided on creating a nuclear bomb - US intelligence

U.S. intelligence believes that Iran has not yet made a final decision to create nuclear weapons, despite having a sufficient stockpile of enriched uranium. However, Washington stated that Tehran could move to produce a bomb in the event of an attack on the main uranium enrichment facility or the assassination of its supreme leader.

This is reported by The New York Times, according to UNN.

Details

According to intelligence and other U.S. officials, "Iran has not yet decided whether to create a nuclear bomb, although it has created a large stockpile of enriched uranium necessary for it."

This assessment has not changed since the intelligence agencies' last review of Iran's intentions in March.

Possible Triggers for Iran's Actions

Senior U.S. intelligence officials stated that "the Iranian leadership is likely to move to produce a bomb if the U.S. military attacks Iran's Fordow uranium enrichment facility or if Israel assassinates Iran's supreme leader."

In their opinion, whether Iran has decided to complete the work on creating a bomb is irrelevant; Tehran is close enough to pose an existential threat to Israel. But this issue has long been a hot topic in the debate over Iran policy and has flared up again as President Trump weighs whether to bomb Fordow, the publication noted.

Trump's Decision Expected in Two Weeks On Thursday, June 19, White House officials briefed on intelligence announced that "Trump will make a decision within the next two weeks."

At a White House meeting, CIA Director John Ratcliffe told officials that "Iran is very close to obtaining nuclear weapons."

Later at a press briefing, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that Iran has the materials needed to create a bomb.

Let's be extremely candid: Iran has everything it needs to obtain nuclear weapons. All it needs is the decision of the supreme leader, and it will take a few weeks to complete the production of this weapon.

Iran Could Obtain a Bomb in 15 Days Some U.S. officials said that these new estimates align with materials provided by Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, which believes Iran could obtain nuclear weapons in 15 days.

While some of them consider Israel's assessment credible, others emphasized that according to U.S. intelligence, Iran might need several months to a year to create the weapon.

Many intelligence officials believe that the reason Iran has accumulated such a large arsenal of uranium is its ability to quickly move to bomb creation.

Israel Ready to Act Alone

Some officials believe that Israel's assessments were colored by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's desire to gain American support for his military campaign against Iran.

However, on June 19, Netanyahu stated that Israel can achieve its goals independently when it comes to Iran's nuclear facilities.

In recent months, Iran has taken steps it has never taken before, steps to convert this enriched uranium into weapons, and if not stopped, Iran could produce nuclear weapons in a very short time. It could be a year. It could be within months, less than a year. This is a clear and present danger to the very survival of Israel.

According to several officials, none of the new estimates regarding the timeline for obtaining a bomb are based on recently collected intelligence.

Additionally, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a religious ruling, or fatwa, in 2003, which prohibits the country from developing nuclear weapons. However, U.S. officials acknowledge that large stockpiles of enriched uranium pose a threat. Iran's potential is 10 bombs in three weeks.

Testifying before Congress on June 10, General Michael E. Kurilla, commander of CENTCOM, stated that "Iran's nuclear arsenal and existing centrifuges could allow it to produce weapons-grade material in a week, and enough to produce 10 weapons in three weeks, if the government decides to 'break out toward a nuclear weapon.'"

In March, in her testimony, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines noted that "Iran's arsenals are at high levels, which she says is unprecedented for a non-nuclear state."

Officials stated that Ms. Haines' comments remain accurate and align with the idea that Iran is stockpiling components for weapons.

Iran's stockpiles are enriched to 60 percent. To create a bomb, it would need to be enriched further, to 90 percent. Uranium enrichment means reducing the percentage of natural uranium, U-238, and increasing the percentage of the lighter isotope, U-235, which can sustain a nuclear reaction.

But more than just uranium is needed to produce a weapon. Iran would also have to manufacture a bomb, and potentially miniaturize it for deployment on a warhead. While the United States and Israel believe Iran has the expertise to build a bomb, there is no intelligence indicating it intends to do so.

'Hiroshima Bomb' as a Possible Alternative

U.S. intelligence believes that Iran could potentially shorten its timeline if it pursues the development of a simpler weapon, which might not be miniaturized and fitted onto a missile. Such a simpler weapon could be more akin to the bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima, which, weighing nearly 10,000 pounds and measuring 10 feet long, would have had to be dropped from an aircraft rather than delivered by missile.

Senior officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have stated that new information has come in since the U.S. intelligence posture was released in March. However, officials said that information from Israel and other sources is not new intelligence about Iran's program or intent to build a bomb, but rather a new analysis of existing work.

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